The Caps are now 10 games into the season, which means we can start to put our guard down about sample sizes. But don’t put your guard down regarding the roller coaster of emotions that is an 82-game season. There will be ups and downs so, as the team embarks on this long road, it’s best to try to keep an even keel.

Even with an opening ten games that went really well, there have been ups and downs for the Caps. There was that awful, Ovechkin-less game against the Sharks, but then a marvelous trip out to western Canada. A disappointing loss to the Penguins was followed by a nice win over the Blue Jackets. So again, keep your eyes focused upon the bigger picture as we follow our team down this long, 82-game road.

An even keel and the bigger picture are also important to keep in mind when reading this snapshot or other analysis of this team. A noted grievance here or a concerned tweet there shouldn’t be taken as an indictment of any one player or coach. The fact is — this team is really good. But that doesn’t mean we should stop thinking critically about ways it could be improved.

Let’s take the long road, which we’re on cheering for a very good hockey team that has a very good coach. Keep this context in mind with these snapshots, or anything written here about the team. The purpose here isn’t to merely be a cheerleader for a team that is in great shape at the moment, but also to examine what can be done to help maximize the odds that this long road stretches into June.

Your feedback has been heard. While some prefer raw shot attempt numbers and others prefer relative numbers, having them both is probably the most informative approach. Goals-for numbers are only raw, not relative. I reserve the right to change my mind on that at any point. Zone starts are gone because, while they can provide a caveat, they aren’t as important as you may think.

Forwards

Defense

Observations

• The first bullet point is dedicated to how awesome the numbers on these charts are. Go ahead, scroll back up and take it all in. The Caps are currently third in the NHL, behind St. Louis and LA, with a 55.5 percent score-adjusted shot attempt percentage. That is championship-level possession, y’all. But also take note of the PDOs in the chart. While this team is in great shape, with or without puck luck, they could be due for a string of tough luck games. So far, this team has been both good and lucky.

https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/660845166002110465

• TJ Oshie and Justin Williams have fit in really well and this team’s forward rank is reaping the benefits. They are both crushing it in terms of possession, both playing PP and PK, and both showing up on the score sheet. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Brian MacLellan had a fantastic summer. It’s nice to see it play out on the ice.
• My eye test honestly finds it hard to believe that Evgeny Kuznetov is a negative relative possession player. Although, it’s important to note that the team is still well above water with him on the ice, with 53.81 percent of the shot attempts. But it’s still surprising to me that the team sees 2.53 percent less of the overall shot attempts when he’s on the ice as opposed to when he’s on the bench. I don’t have a definitive answer for this, but here’s a few thoughts: 1) Some skill players are more noticeable to the eye-test, and appear to help their team more than they actually do. This isn’t to say Kuznetsov isn’t dynamite offensively. But perhaps his defensive game still needs more work. 2) Some high-end, skill players don’t need the puck as much to make an impact on the game. For example, since 2012, Patrick Kane has a relative shot-attempt percentage of minus-1.84 percent, but he’s one of the more gifted and dynamic players in the league, offensively-speaking. 3) It’s reasonable to think Kuznetsov’s possession numbers in this 10-game sample haven’t caught up to the strides in his game yet and that they will improve over the course of the season. I think it’s likely a combination of these three things as well as others.
• Andre Burakovsky needs more ice time. Last night, he took just 13 shifts for 9:04 of ice time. The night before against Columbus, the young Swede skated only 7:09 on ten shifts. The team is winning, but it’s not as if everyone ahead of Burakovsky on the depth chart is playing so well that it’d be impossible to find more minutes for him (coughthirdlinecough). It’d be in the team’s best interest to reverse the course of this graph (three game rolling TOI average).

• Tom Wilson’s possession numbers are pretty miserable. But, hear me out, I want him given more of an opportunity. The Caps bumped him up to the “third line” this season, but Jay Beagle and Jason Chimera are not two-thirds of a third line. They are fourth-line players who can fill in as third liners when needed, but when both are on the same line, it’s more of a fourth line than a third. Wilson hasn’t demanded better playing situations with his performance. But he’s not the type of player who has the skill to carry a line like Burakovsky does. Wilson is a player who, ideally, would play a complimentary role on a line with skill players, a la Mike Knuble.
• I’d like to see a third line with Burakovsky on the left wing and Wilson on the right. I’m not as picky about who would be the pivot, but if I had my choice, I’d go with Brooks Laich. For those who think Barry Trotz would never deploy a third line like this, because it wouldn’t be a “shutdown” line, the coach has spoken openly about how the NHL is moving away from a third-line as a checking line, and moving towards a top-nine forward approach.
• Speaking of Laich, he and Chandler Stephenson have been great, possession-wise. They will score a goal or two soon if they are kept together.
• Nate Schmidt needs to be in the lineup every night. He’s proven, any time he’s given the chance, that he makes this team better when he’s on the ice. Stop scratching him. And, when he plays, it’s okay to give him more than the ten minutes he got last night in Florida.
• Theodore (?) Chorney has been surprisingly solid when called upon. If this team didn’t have such a darn solid blue line, I’d be calling for him to get more ice time. But, it’s nice to see him play competently so far this season, as it helps to somewhat alleviate my concerns of what happens if this team has an injury to a defender in their top-six.
• This bullet is just to point out how nice it is to see Dmitry Orlov healthy and playing well. The dude missed an entire year of hockey and comes back threading stretch passes and driving possession like it ain’t no thing.
• I don’t like a world where John Carlson is the Caps lowest possession defender. Although, the Caps are still tilting the ice when he’s skating, to the tune of a 52.23 percent shot attempt percentage. For those that think this is a quality of competition thing, it’s not. Carlson and Brooks Orpik have faced similar competition to Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner, who have fared a bit better. For those who are thinking this is a quality of teammate thing, I think that’s part of it. In some ways this leaves me feeling as if Carlson, a Norris Candidate level player, is being anchored by playing with Orpik. But, at the same time, if he’s able to keep Orpik in the 52-percent neighborhood, that’s a good thing for the team. Carlson also deserves a medal for such a feat.

Glossary

• GP. Games played.
• TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
• SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
• rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
• Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
• PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.

Stats from War on Ice