From Capstagram, which is what I call it now.

I don’t know if what I’m doing with the snapshot is really “analytics.” Hearing all the buzz at the Sloan Conference and this mostly inane Deadspin piece, there’s a lot of stuff wrapped up in that term that don’t really apply here.

The snapshot isn’t about decision-making (we don’t make any decisions), and it’s definitely not a branding effort (it probably hurts the RMNB brand by being so stodgy). For me, these statistics are just new ways to understand the game.

My educational background is in literary criticism. In that field, people discuss writing using different frameworks (formalism, deconstruction, post-colonialism, queer, etc.). The goal isn’t to decide what writing is good or bad, but to appreciate the writing in new ways and learn more about it and ourselves by looking from different– and deeper– angles.

It’s not that much different for hockey. For some people, the only metric that matters is championships. It’s a simple binary: yes you won, or no you did not. Some go deeper: how far did you make it in the playoffs: zero rounds, one round, two rounds, or more (As a Caps fan, I suspect the “more” is a myth). More nuance, more understanding, but still nothing too deep. And then you can get down to wins. And then goals. And then shots. And then– and for some reason people resist this– shot attempts.

And there are layers of rich and complex data even further below, new angles from which to look. And when we acknowledge how that low-level information can bubble up to high-level results– like championships– we create an intellectual scaffold for richer understanding of the sport. It’s miles from the championship binary.

I see why some critics consider analytics to be a retreat from complexity: because it uses numbers, which are finite, instead of descriptions, which are not. It can seem reductive. But the spirit behind the analysis is quite the opposite: it’s a framework for looking deeper, and more closely– not to blithely draw conclusions.

In this week’s snapshot: No blithe conclusions. I’ll try.

Previous snapshots: week 1, week 2, week 3, week 4, week 5, week 6, week 7, week 8, week 9, week 10, week 11, week 12, week 13, week 14, week 15, week 16, week 17, week 18

These are current as noon on Sunday, March 1. The sample is restricted to 5v5 hockey when the score is within one goal. There’s a glossary at bottom with an explanatory video.

Forwards

Defense

Observations

• The Capitals didn’t win a game this week, and their underlying numbers are in freefall. Consulting Puckon.net, their score-adjusted is now down to 51.5. In the 17 games since the all-star break, the Capitals have been a bad possession team– ranked 21st in score-adjusted shot-attempt percentage with a 49.1. Compare that to their first 17 games, when the Caps were a top-10 team, owning 52.6 percent of the shots. This is a bad trend, and I don’t know what’s behind it.
• Because almost everyone’s stats got worse. Beagle, Backstrom, and Wilson all narrowly improved their possession this week (by one shot attempt each), but everyone else dropped– and dropped hard. Especially the second line’s Evgeny Kuznetsov and Troy Brouwer. Fedor wrote a good piece on Saturday contrasting the Capitals’ second line to others in the division. The Caps do not stack up well, and it shouldn’t be a surprise. Kuznetsov has shown scant evidence so far of being a good possession player (except perhaps when in a bottom-six role, which is where I still think he should be), and Brouwer is a known finisher but not a driver of play. Marcus Johansson is a great neutral-zone player, but he’s weaker at the ends of the ice– so this line has a tendency so allowing shooting galleries and fail their breakout attempts. If I were a coach, I’d break these three up ASAP. If I were a GM, I’d look for a roster solution tomorrow.
• With Cam Schilling down in Hershey and Aaron Volpatti having cleared waivers, the Capitals seem geared up for a roster solution. I’m expecting something, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it involves multiple players. The snapshot may look way different next weekend.
• Further on the middle six, Pat Holden reached a similar conclusion about the third line over at Brooks Laichyear. My own biases are strong for these three players, and I’ve generally liked them in the shutdown role, but Pat’s point is strong: the returns have been diminishing for weeks now. Where’s the big advantage to keeping these three guys together every game? Could Fehr’s puck-moving skills and predilection for shooting lower the burden on Johansson on the second line? Could Laich become a stabilizing force for a young forward like Burakovsky or Kuznetsov? Maybe it’s time to find out.
• I’ve heard some people say Trotz is tinkering too much with his lines; I think the opposite might be true. He’s stuck with the same middle six since basically November. It worked for a while, but not so much anymore– plus it’s led to Tom Wilson‘s feast-or-famine minutes.
• Jack Hillen makes his final appearance on the snapshot. What a disappointing three seasons it must have been for him: two awful injuries and then an underwhelming return in 2015. I don’t think the third defensive pairing is the root of the Caps’ decline since the all-star break, but it’s been acutely obvious what he’s done for Mike Green’s game. Here, I annotated this timeline from War On Ice:

• Actually, here’s a better one, adding Nate Schmidt (green) and Hillen (red) to the plot.

• Taking a step back, I don’t think the team’s drop-off is due to Jack Hillen or ineffective lines or even some latent, undisclosed injury. I’m confident each of those has had some effect (and that Tim Gleason is not a panacea), but the trouble seems to be too widespread for a tidy answer. I find it frustrating both as a fan and as a nerd. I want to say that I don’t think it’s a tactical issue, but then I’m reminded of this example:

• That’s Jay Beagle, two weeks ago, scoring pretty much the platonic ideal of a dump-and-chase goal. Andre Burakovsky dumps the puck in, Michael Latta retrieves it and makes a play, Brooks Orpik chips in, and Beagle scores. It’s a great teamwork goal from depth players, perfectly executed, and it’s exactly the kind of play you don’t want to depend on. If Burakovsky hadn’t been suffocated in neutral by the Sharks defense,  it would’ve been preferable to organize a carry-in rush attack, which would yield more shots and more dangerous ones at that. Of course, carry-ins can’t be done all the time, and if there’s any line you want dumping the puck, it’s gotta be the fourth. I suppose I worry that the Caps are putting too much stock in this style of play because Beagle does it so well (and because Alex Ovechkin‘s carry-ins so rarely result in good zone time).
• P.S. Check out Beagle’s rush goal from the very same game. Gorgeous.
• I don’t have much else to say this week. I’ve heard this Capitals team is all about identity, but I’ve seen two or three different identities so far. The last twenty games of the season tend to correlate well with playoff performance, so it’s time to decide who these guys are going to be when it matters most. There’s work for everyone right now: the manager, the coach, and the players. Let’s get to it.

Glossary

• 5v5 Within 1. Our sample. The portions of games when each team has five skaters and the score is within one goal.
• GP. Games played.
• TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
• SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Also known as Fenwick. Above 50 percent is good.
• Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Above 50 percent is good.
• PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
• ZS%. Offensive zone start percentage. Excluding neutral-zone starts, the share of shifts that the player starts in the offensive zone, nearer to the opponent’s net.

Thanks to War On Ice for the stats and being generally awesome.