Alexander Steen leads the NHL in offense. He’s got 17 goals and 9 assists in 18 games– including a 13-game point streak. He should be congratulated for that.

La dee freaking da.

When a player goes on a hot streak like this, the conversation sometimes loses perspective. I don’t mean to take anything away from Steen– what he has done is fantastic– but it’s not gonna last. Let’s break it down.

Steen has put 64 shots on goal and has 17 goals to show for it.

That’s a 26.6% shooting percentage. One of every four shots he takes becomes a goal. That’s 18.1% higher than league average and 16.7% higher than Steen’s career average.

So when Alex Steen is shooting, somehow every goalie becomes a .734 save percentage goalie. It won’t last.

Steen averages 3.5 shots per game. If he keeps up his shooting pace, he’ll get 224 more shots. Assuming he shoots his career average, that’s 22 goals– for a season total of 39 goals. Great.

Meanwhile, Alex Ovechkin averages nearly 6 shots per game. Ovi is shooting 14.3% this season– only 2% above his career average. If Ovi continues this season’s shooting pace and converts at his career average, that’s another 45 goals …for a total of 60. Yeah: a 60-goal season.

Shot totals > Shooting percentage.

(Fun fact: Mathieu Perreault had 16 goals on 60 shots last season. That was just one tenth of a percentage point less than Steen.)

Steen is doing great, but every year we see players start the season with a hot shooting percentages, and they inevitably cool off over time. Steen might be scoring like crazy now, but he won’t sustain it. And with Stamkos hurt and Ovi shooting like it’s 2009 again, the current frontrunner for the Rocket Richard is obvious.