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Cool the Flames: Caps win 4-2

The Calgary Flames came to town on Tuesday and boy have they been…hot. Winners of 12 of their last 13 games, the Flames have been giving teams around the league fits recently.

The Caps opened the scoring after Andre “Dre” Burakovsky stripped Johnny “fancy pants” Gaudreau in the neutral zone and then fed Evgeny Kuznetsov for a pretty goal. The lead didn’t last long as some miscommunication in the Caps defensive zone allowed Sean Monahan to tie the game at one with a snipe.

The second period was uneventful until it wasn’t. TJ Oshie scored his 30th goal of the season to put the Caps up 2-1. Just before the buzzer, Kevin Shattenkirk was credited with the PP goal to put the good guys up 3-1, but it sure looked like Nick Backstrom touched it.

In the third, the Caps had some more issues in the defensive zone that led to a goal by some guy named Troy Brouwer. Alex Ovechkin fired the biscuit all night and was rewarded with a late PP goal.

CAPS WIN 4-2!

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Optimize this juggernaut: Snapshot 9

The Washington Capitals continue to roll. After a slight sputter coming out of the bye week, the guys in red have won five or their last six and a franchise-record 15 straight at home. This is the best team in the NHL.

But, things could slow down at some point. Back in January, Peter asked if the Caps are lucky or if they’re good. He correctly concluded that they are both lucky and good. To say that there’s some luck baked into the Caps results isn’t a slight. While getting lucky is often associated with bad teams, good teams are lucky just as often as bad ones. In fact, it takes a whole lot of luck to be the last team standing in June.

Just how lucky has this Caps team been? Well, the difference between the Caps goals for percentage and expected goals for percentage is the biggest of any team for a single season since 2007. By a mile. Here’s a look at the top 30.

I cut out the individual season markers to make the graph less cramped. That’s the 2016-17 Caps in first and the 2009-10 team in fourth.

The good news, even if the Caps’ luck turns, is that their underlying numbers tell us they’re still one of the top teams in the league. But the Caps shouldn’t merely count on their underlying numbers mitigating the effects of a slump, they should be looking for ways to continuously improve the process that results in those strong underlying numbers. The Caps should be looking to maximize every part of their roster so, if the hockey gods stop smiling on them, the fall is as soft and padded as possible.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the numbers.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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The opposite of exciting: Caps win 1-0

The Caps, a very good hockey team, played the Devils, a not very good hockey team, on Thursday night in DC.

The first period happened. And then the second period happened. After 40 painfully boring minutes of hockey, we went to the third tied at zero.

Then, with the Caps on the PP, SOMETHING FINALLY HAPPENED. Jakub Vrana scored to give the Caps a 1-0 lead with just under 13 minutes left.

Caps win 1-0! Holtby gets the shutout! 

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Believe your eyes, Kevin Shattenkirk is an offensive force

Kevin Shattenkirk’s debut with the Caps on Tuesday night was largely met with positive reviews from both fans and analysts. The newest member of the Caps came as advertised, showcasing superior skating and puck skills that have elevated him to be one of the better offensive defensemen in the NHL today.

We’ve already covered plenty about Shattenkirk, including that he’s a top pairing quality player and his arrival could cause a shakeup on the Caps blue line. But, now that we’ve all seen him play a game for the Caps, here are some numbers to show that, yes, he’s as offensively-skilled as he appeared to be on Tuesday night in New York.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Shat’s what we’re talking about: Caps win 4-1

Kevin Shattenkirk and the Washington Capitals visited the Big Apple to take on the Rangers on Tuesday night. It didn’t take long for Shattenkirk to be involved in a goal. For the other team.

The Rangers jumped out to an early 1-0 lead when none of the Caps forwards covered up down low for Shattenkirk, who had pressured the puck carrier in the faceoff circle.

Marcus Johansson drove to the net and tapped home a rebound to tie the game at one a little under eight minutes into the second. The Caps continued to carry the play in the second and were rewarded in the final minutes when Brett Connolly stuffed home his 13th goal of the season.

Early in the third, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Johansson hooked up for a goal in which both showed off their magic hands to give the Caps a 3-1 lead. Nick Backstrom called bank on a late PP to seal this one.

Caps beat Rangers 4-1!

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Tom Wilson on the first line is worth a shot

The Caps rolled out new lines at practice on Monday. The most notable change was fourth line forward Tom Wilson getting promoted to play on the team’s first line alongside superstars Alex Ovechkin and Nick Backstrom. There’s never a shortage of opinions on Wilson, so playing him alongside the two best players in the history of the franchise was sure to draw a lot of reactions.

There’s actually a good bit of history to draw on when evaluating this move. Since 2013, Wilson has skated 305 minutes with Ovechkin and Backstrom, third only to TJ Oshie and Marcus Johansson as the most frequent right wing to play with them.

Those 305 minutes of hockey show us that there’s reason to be optimistic that top-line Tom could work out alright for the Caps.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Kevin Shattenkirk is a top-pairing defenseman

Last night, the Caps somehow acquired Kevin Shattenkirk without giving up a significant piece of their roster or a top-five prospect. Shattenkirk is a skilled, offensive-minded defenseman and arguably the best player on the Caps’ blue line.

While it remains to be seen how the Caps will use Shattenkirk, here’s a high-level look at the newest member of the Caps and how he stacks up compared to his new teammates.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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The weather is nicer than this game: Caps lose 2-1

The Caps were back at it again Sunday afternoon, visiting the Rangers in New York because scheduling a team for back-to-back games coming out of the bye week is an idea that someone thought should be implemented.

Other than a few chances by the top line, the Caps came out as flat as you might expect them to given the circumstances. The Rangers Ryan McDonough put his team up 1-0 early after the Caps first line and Carlzner decided to leave him all along in the slot. The Caps continued to get outplayed, but thanks to Philipp Grubauer the first period ended at 1-0.

The Caps looked much more competent in the second period and, towards the end of the frame, Alex Ovechkin tied it with a knuckepuck on the PP.

In the third, the Caps third pairing was sleepy on a Rangers set play off a draw and Mats Zuccarello gave the bad guys a 2-1 lead.

Caps lose, 2-1.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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The risk of TJ Oshie’s next contract

TJ Oshie has been just about a perfect fit for the Caps since coming to the team during the summer of 2015. He’s been excellent in the role envisioned for him: a top-six wing to play the right side with a healthy mix of skill and physicality. Oshie’s tenacious forechecking has fit in great on the Caps first line alongside Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, and TJ has proven he can keep up with his superstar linemates, as he’s posted his two best goal scoring seasons of his career while in DC.

Oshie, who is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, has fit in so well that it may seem like a foregone conclusion that the team should make re-signing him a top priority. While it’s possible there are scenarios that could play out to make bringing Oshie back a no-brainer, there’s plenty of reasons for the Caps to be very cautious when considering whether or not they should re-sign him.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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Maybe, possibly, this could be the year: Snapshot 7

The Caps are at it again. They are piling up points at a dizzying pace and are one of the best teams in the league. Skeptics may point to the team’s 10.3 percent shooting percentage or 65.5 goals-for percentage as unsustainable, and they wouldn’t be entirely wrong. But even if the Caps percentages regress to a seemingly more sustainable level, they are still one of the best teams in the league.

“But,” they say “will this last?” Or will the Caps have another juggernaut of a regular season end in playoff disappointment?

I’ll spare you the details of why I believe regular season success is more meaningful than playoff success and how randomness can sometimes cause the better team to lose a seven-game series. Instead, we’ll hear from a couple smart, insightful folks from around the league. I asked both of them the same question: in about two sentences, do you think this is the Caps’ year? Here’s what they said:

  • Carolyn Wilke, Hockey Editor for FanRag Sports: The Capitals look as dominant as any Stanley Cup winner I’ve seen. Plus, they seem to have finally fixed the one problem that’s plagued them in playoffs past – lack of bottom 6 scoring.
  • Sean Tierney, Hockey Graphs and The Athletic: The Capitals are doing what any dangerous Cup contender does — they’re producing excellent stats (shot attempt percentage, scoring chances, goals for percentage, and on and on…) and are enjoying a burst of PDO too. Even good teams need some luck to wind their way through the playoffs. This team is scary good — and they’ve got luck on their side too. Watch out.

(If you aren’t already following these great folks on Twitter, I highly recommend it. Click their names.)

Just like many seasons during the Ovechkin era, this could be the year. But maybe it won’t be.

Let’s dig into the numbers through 53 games for a Caps team that is again considered a legitimate threat to win it all.

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By Patrick Holden 6 years ago

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