Three regular-season games don’t tell much of a story, but with so many new faces and returning players taking on different roles, some interesting trends are already developing for the Washington Capitals.
The Caps have won two of their first three games, and they looked mighty impressive in their victories over the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins. The Capitals spent 102:32 — nearly 57 percent of their first three games — playing with a lead. They have not trailed at all in either of their two victories.
While head coach Spencer Carbery has distributed ice time pretty evenly, the players you might expect to get the most ice time aren’t. You could even say the team dynamic has completely changed.
Here are a few takeaways very early in the season.
Boone Jenner leads Capitals forwards in 5v5 ice time. Alex Ovechkin has played the least.
The Washington Capitals made three huge forward additions over the offseason. The two most notable being big-scoring forwards Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou. But checking-line forward Boone Jenner, not playing his normal center position, is actually getting the most important minutes on the team.
Forty-one-year-old Alex Ovechkin, who didn’t play a preseason game due to a lower-body injury, has gotten the least ice time at five-on-five, just under rookie Ilya Protas.
Capitals forwards: 5v5 ice time
| Rank | Player | GP | 5v5 TOI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boone Jenner | 3 | 36:39 |
| 2 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | 3 | 35:42 |
| 3 | Aliaksei Protas | 3 | 34:51 |
| 4 | Justin Sourdif | 3 | 34:22 |
| 5 | Alex Tuch | 3 | 33:19 |
| 6 | Ryan Leonard | 3 | 33:16 |
| 7 | Anthony Beauvillier | 3 | 32:37 |
| 8 | Tom Wilson | 3 | 31:54 |
| 9 | Dylan Strome | 3 | 30:42 |
| 10 | Jordan Kyrou | 3 | 29:16 |
| 11 | Ilya Protas | 3 | 28:10 |
| 12 | Alex Ovechkin | 3 | 27:58 |
While Aliaksei Protas is getting extra shifts, the third line overall, with his brother and Jordan Kyrou, isn’t seeing much ice because they’ve struggled early this season. Tom Wilson, who plays in all situations, including the penalty kill and power play, is perhaps the biggest surprise, clocking in with the eighth-most 5v5 ice time among the 12 forwards.
The Capitals’ second line is dominating.
The Caps’ Big Chonkers line of Alex Tuch, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Tom Wilson has been dominating at five-on-five, with few teams having an answer early. Notably, the trio put up three five-on-five goals against the Penguins — doing so against Pittsburgh’s top line featuring Sidney Crosby. All three players are also sporting plus-4 five-on-five goal differentials.
The most impressive thing about the Pierre-Tuch DuTom line’s success is that they’re not getting heavy ice time. And around 75 percent of the three players’ zone starts have come outside the offensive zone.
5v5 Goals
| Player | Goals finished | Goals allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 5 | 1 |
| Alex Tuch | 4 | 0 |
| Tom Wilson | 4 | 0 |
Alex Ovechkin hasn’t received a defensive zone shift start yet.
Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery seems to be using the same strategy as last season with Alex Ovechkin’s five-on-five deployment. Ovechkin didn’t receive a single defensive-zone shift start until Washington’s 73rd game last year, and Carbery admitted he only reversed course on his methodology because the deployment strategy became a story in hockey media.
Through four games this season, Ovechkin has also not received a single defensive-zone shift start at five-on-five. Of his 45 total five-on-five shifts, he has started 30 on the fly from the bench, 8 from the offensive zone, and 7 from the neutral zone. Among Capitals skaters, only he and defenseman Dylan McIlrath, who has played just one game, have yet to start a five-on-five shift in the defensive zone.
Ovechkin has the worst expected goals percentage on the team
Despite getting such cushy starts, Ovechkin has the lowest 5v5 expected goals percentage among Capitals forwards, with the team generating just 0.81 expected goals and allowing 2.30 during his minutes.
Capitals forwards: 5v5 expected goals
| Rank | Player | xGF | xGA | xG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boone Jenner | 1.46 | 0.90 | 62.00% |
| 2 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | 2.43 | 1.56 | 60.95% |
| 3 | Tom Wilson | 1.75 | 1.30 | 57.36% |
| 4 | Anthony Beauvillier | 1.36 | 1.07 | 56.00% |
| 5 | Aliaksei Protas | 1.64 | 1.33 | 55.19% |
| 6 | Alex Tuch | 1.80 | 1.56 | 53.52% |
| 7 | Jordan Kyrou | 1.43 | 1.45 | 49.61% |
| 8 | Ilya Protas | 1.20 | 1.22 | 49.50% |
| 9 | Justin Sourdif | 1.04 | 1.14 | 47.77% |
| 10 | Ryan Leonard | 1.43 | 2.11 | 40.43% |
| 11 | Dylan Strome | 0.96 | 2.22 | 30.11% |
| 12 | Alex Ovechkin | 0.81 | 2.30 | 26.06% |
At five-on-five, the Capitals have controlled just 34.4 percent of shot attempts, 34.5 percent of scoring chances, and 26.1 percent of expected goals with Ovechkin on the ice — all team-worst marks among Caps forwards except for his high-danger chance share, which ranks second-worst. Those struggles have come despite that exceptionally favorable deployment.
But of course, the offensive ability is still there. The Capitals have outscored opponents 3–1 during Ovechkin’s five-on-five minutes, but that success has come with an unsustainably high 37.5 percent on-ice shooting percentage.
Boone Jenner leads the team in faceoff percentage and is taking draws for Justin Sourdif.
Jenner is essentially operating in the dot like Nic Dowd last season, despite Justin Sourdif lining up at center. Jenner has taken the third-most draws (35) on the team at all strengths, just behind Pierre-Luc Dubois (41) and Dylan Strome (38). He leads the team in win percentage at 62.86 percent.
Capitals Faceoffs (all strengths)
This list includes Capitals forwards who have taken more than 5 faceoffs this season.
| Rank | Player | Faceoffs Taken | Won | Lost | FO W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | 41 | 18 | 23 | 43.90% |
| 2 | Dylan Strome | 38 | 21 | 17 | 55.26% |
| 3 | Boone Jenner | 35 | 22 | 13 | 62.86% |
| 4 | Ilya Protas | 26 | 12 | 14 | 46.15% |
| 5 | Justin Sourdif | 9 | 5 | 4 | 55.56% |
| 6 | Alex Tuch | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22.22% |
Alex Ovechkin leads the team in power-play ice time but is no longer staying on for all two minuutes.
Washington’s power play struggled significantly last season under the guidance of former assistant coach Kirk Muller. They finished 25th in the NHL, scoring on just 17.8 percent of their opportunities.
Muller left shortly after the Capitals were eliminated from playoff contention and was replaced by Ray Bennett, an assistant coach in the NHL for the past 25 seasons. Through four games, the club’s two man-advantage units have shown early signs of improvement, converting on 2 of their 8 opportunities for a 25 percent success rate, which ranks 11th in the league.
Notably, Ovechkin, while still averaging the most power-play ice time per game on the team (3:14), is no longer staying on the ice for entire two-minute power plays. Last year, he averaged 4:29 of power-play ice time per game, 1:15 more than this season.
While Ovechkin is getting the least five-on-five minutes, he’s getting the most power-play ice on the team.
Capitals forwards: Power-play ice time
| Rank | Player | Power-play time |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Ovechkin | 9:42 |
| 2 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | 8:11 |
| 3 | Dylan Strome | 8:09 |
| 4 | Tom Wilson | 7:39 |
| 5 | Alex Tuch | 5:48 |
| 6 | Jordan Kyrou | 5:33 |
| 7 | Ryan Leonard | 5:06 |
| 8 | Ilya Protas | 4:19 |
What are your early takeaways and are there any interesting stats we missed?