Tuesday night, the Caps beat the Toronto Maple Leafs by a score of 4-1. It was a strong road game by the Capitals, in which they shut down the Leafs’ superstars save for a last-minute powerplay goal by Mitch Marner to spoil the shutout. There was a lot to like last night. Kevin Shattenkirk finally netted his first goal as a Cap from the Ovi Spot™, and Nate Schmidt escaped his Schmidtuation with a very pretty goal. Alex Ovechkin also moved into second place all-time among Russian scorers.
While it felt like the Caps were in control from start to finish, shot attempts were even in this game at 46 to 44 in favor of the Caps at five-on-five. The disparity was a bit larger in terms of shots on net, with 31 to 21 in favor of the Caps. All in all, only six of the Caps’ five-on-five shot attempts were blocked.
Key Stats
- The “third” line is getting back to their possession-dominating form. Once again they were last in ice time with only 7.5 minutes at five-on-five, but the line of Lars Eller, Andre Burakovsky, and Brett Connolly was a plus-four in shot attempts last night, the only line above zero. They did that spending quite a bit of time against Auston Matthews, and they also scored one of the prettiest cycle goals ever. It’s hard not to suspect that Bura’s return from injury has been the driving force here, as he’s looked sharp as a tack since coming back from a broken hand.
- The Caps won the matchup battle against a team that is difficult to matchup against. It’s kind of shocking just how quickly the Leafs have come into their own, and they have a deep forward corps with borderline superstars on their top-three lines. The Caps didn’t have last change and did not dominate shot metrics, but Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen kept Auston Matthews and William Nylander off the board, and Karl Alzner and Nate Schmidt kept Marner off the board (at even strength, at least). These matchups will be a very hot topic if the standings don’t change, and after allowing nine goals in the first two games against the Leafs it was reassuring to see the Caps barely allow even one last night.
- Speaking of Schmidt, he made the most of his first game back in the lineup. We’ve consistently been beating the drum for Schmitty and he deserves it. In ten minutes with Alzner, the pairing was a plus-six in shot attempts — the only pairing above zero last night. Schmidt himself scored the all-important insurance goal halfway through the third, and they spent most of their time playing against the Marner line.
Unsung Hero of the Game
Not normally one to be “unsung,” this will go to Alex Ovechkin for last night’s performance. Held off the scoreboard save for a secondary assist on the Shattenkirk PPG, Ovi was exactly what the Caps need him to be. He was an all-around presence, with 19 total minutes (most of any forward), five shot attempts, and four hits. He finished dead even in shot attempts at five-on-five, with sixteen for and against. Nazem Kadri was tasked with the shutdown role, and while Ovi was held off the board he still looked like a force of nature out there, throwing his weight around and getting a few dangerous chances. If Ovi plays like he did last night in the playoffs the Caps will be just fine.
Key Trend
Unfortunately, last night the Pittsburgh Penguins also won their matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Because of that, the Caps will have to wait to clinch the Metro division, but (knock on wood) it’s all but assured as they just need one point in their next three games to clinch. Only if the Caps fail to gain a single point and the Pens win their next three will they not win the Metro.
So we can assume the Caps will be playing whoever slots into the second wildcard spot. We wrote about this a couple of weeks ago, and the picture has almost entirely changed. The image below from HockeyViz.com is from yesterday, and after last night it will already be outdated, but it still provides some context. A decisive win over Tampa by Boston, along with a regulation win by Ottawa, might have just put the nail in the coffin for the Lightning last night. The Caps are therefore down to three realistic matchups: Ottawa, Toronto, and Boston, with Toronto currently occupying the spot. All of those are favorable. Not guaranteed wins by any means, but a clear edge for Washington. The Caps had a lot to play for down the stretch, and play for it they did.
Full RMNB Coverage of Caps at Maple Leafs
Stats courtesy of NaturalStatTrick, Corsica.Hockey, and HockeyViz.
Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI.
