Happy Boxing Day, Caps fans who know what Boxing Day is. I do not. What I do know is your level of happiness for each player on the Caps roster. That is because you did your duty and completed the Happiness Survey on time.
We fed your answers into our proprietary model ChatPLD, whose emotional valence makes him the perfect tool/person to generate the report that follows.
This is the first Happiness Survey of the 2025-26 season. Here is how we asked the question:
On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?
1 means VERY UNHAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
2 means UNHAPPY
3 means NEITHER HAPPY NOR UNHAPPY
4 means HAPPY
5 means VERY HAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
Happiness means whatever you want it to mean. To me it means getting at least four hours of uninterrupted sleep and/or the Caps are more likely to score when a guy is on the ice.
The average score for each player is listed below along with their standard deviation, a measurement of disagreement (smaller numbers mean more consensus). They have been sorted into subjective tiers by me.
Contract-Term Superstars Tier
It’s a good thing you like these guys.
- Tom Wilson 4.88 ± 0.49
- Logan Thompson 4.86 ± 0.49
- Jakob Chychrun 4.81 ± 0.54
- Ryan Leonard 4.81 ± 0.56
Something your favorite players have in common: term. Tom and Logan are signed through 2031. Jakob through ’33. Ryan will be a restricted free-agent after next season.
If the Ovi era is indeed ending, what follows has already begun.
Ovi Tier
The tier with Ovi in it.
- Alex Ovechkin 4.76 ± 0.61
I’m confused by this one. That’s a low score for Ovechkin – he was 4.88 at the end of last season. And when the survey was taken, he had scored nine goals in his last ten games. Is there an end-of-career chill happening? I hope not, because I still think he’ll sign an extension.
Core Tier
Role-players you need, and players you maybe need more from.
- Aliaksei Protas 4.62 ± 0.69
- Dylan Strome 4.47 ± 0.72
- Martin Fehérváry 4.43 ± 0.73
- Matt Roy 4.40 ± 0.73
Protas sticks out above the rest here, fifteen basis points above Strome. Did I use the term basis point correctly there? I won’t ever do it again. Fehervary seems to have taken a step forward this season, and Roy remains dependable. Strome, though; he’s on pace for under twenty goals for this first time since the Covid seasons.
Depth Dudes Tier
Populating the middle part of the chart.
- Charlie Lindgren 4.26 ± 0.80
- Brandon Duhaime 4.17 ± 0.77
- Rasmus Sandin 4.16 ± 0.76
- Connor McMichael 4.16 ± 0.79
Lindgren has improved from last season, but he’s still indisputably behind Thompson. But Duhaime, Sandin, and McMichael all appear to have taken steps back since summer. There’s a chance McMichael has a single-digit goal total at season’s end.
Debate Lord Tier
Fight! Fight! Fight!
- Nic Dowd 4.09 ± 0.87
- John Carlson 4.07 ± 0.93
- Pierre-Luc Dubois 4.02 ± 0.94
These are the players you disagree about. For PLD, that makes sense, as he’s been out since October with a lower-body injury. We got into the changes in Dowd’s play in the Snapshot the other day. And then there’s John Carlson, having caught more strays than a veteran TNR cat-rescue volunteer.
Guy has had one negative season since Laviolette. I know you don’t like what he does, but what he does works. He’s like Ovi in that sense.
Some More Hockey Players Tier
There are some more hockey players in this tier.
- Anthony Beauvillier 3.98 ± 0.75
- Justin Sourdif 3.97 ± 0.82
- Ethen Frank 3.68 ± 0.84
- Trevor van Riemsdyk 3.53 ± 0.87
Beauvillier has played up and down the lineup with uneven results. He’s had one point since the survey was completed. Sourdif has great underlying numbers but can’t score to save his life. Same with Ethen Frank, aside from scoring both goals in that losing effort in Detroit. I don’t like what I’ve seen from TVR this season.
One spin we could put on this: lots of room for improvement in this tier.
Part Timers Tier
Have we seen enough of these players? And have we seen enough of one of these players?
- Declan Chisholm 3.23 ± 0.78
- Sonny Milano 3.10 ± 0.92
- Dylan McIlrath 2.97 ± 0.96
- Hendrix Lapierre 2.71 ± 0.98
Chisholm has the highest average ice time of this group, still south of 15 minutes. Everyone else barely sees the ice. Hendrix Lapierre plays less than every NHL forward except San Jose’s Ryan Reaves and Calgary’s Ryan Lomberg.
We’ll do another survey before the Olympic break, but for now: what do we think? Did we get this right?
