He doesn’t light the lamp like Chychrun or Carlson, but Rasmus Sandin might be Washington’s best all-around defender.
By the Numbers
4
Goals
26
Assists
82
Games played
19
Minutes per game
On-ice percentages
50%
Shot attempts
53%
Expected goals
55%
Actual goals
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple blobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB conducted an open survey with readers, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Slavoj Žižek on Sandin
Arguing who is the best defenseman is a Marxist device of the highest order. sniff It is the defensewomen who will be the vanguard while the defensemen play Mario Kart!
Peter’s Take
I’m revisiting this analysis after watching, mouth agape (not agápē), the comments over the last few weeks. A debate rolls on about who is the best defender in Washington. Chychrun, Carlson, Marty, Roy – now let me add one more name to the list.
Rasmus Sandin, age 25, just had the best season of his career. His on-ice goal differential tied Carlson, and he trailed Chychrun by just one assist despite being used offensively far less than either. Aside from the fourth line, everyone who spent time with him did better on those shifts than without him, when measured by expected goals – and conveniently ignoring the minus-0.2 percentage points suffered by Tom Wilson when with Sandin.
There’s an unholy alliance of X‘s-and-O‘s jocks and spreadsheet dweebs who have built an uneasy coalition around Sandin. Because he’s the go-to guy when the Caps move through neutral, he looks good on both the video coaches’ reels and on the data visualizations. Using Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) stat, we can imagine a player’s impact on a team in a familiar way, compared to what you might expect of a call-up AHL player. In that stat, Sandin was by far the Caps’ best defender.
The bars above break each player’s impact into compartments. Blue is even-strength offense, where Sandin had the biggest offensive impact – plus-7.6. Orange is even-strength defense, where he again had the biggest number – plus-4.6. If Sandin played more on power play, he’d probably have been a top-10 defender in the entire league in total GAR.
Late in the season, the Caps PP struggled precisely with what Sandin is best at: zone entries. It’s a no-brainer to play him more next season.
And next season? Sky’s the limit, man. I don’t think the Caps will be as – I’m trying so hard not to use a Harry Potter reference here – let’s just say they’re not going to be magically lucky again. Sandin should be nearing his career peak. Insofar as the Caps will be good, he will be low-key helping them get there. I’m not sure this will be a debate next summer.
Sandin on RMNB
- Sandin’s start to the season was delayed by immigration issues. He was frustrated by it. I will say no more.
- I don’t think I properly appreciated him until this season. Now I think he’s downright elite.
- Sandin came darn close to a significant head injury in March.
- I’m not saying this is why the Caps lost, but this was devastating:
Rasmus Sandin gets stick caught in boards during backbreaking fourth goal of Hurricanes’ Game 4 win
Your Turn
Who is the best defender on the Capitals? Warning: TVR review is Friday.
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