Aliaksei Protas is one of the NHL’s biggest breakout players of 2024-25. He has more points this season (58) than he did in his last three seasons combined (53). He’s the subject of fascination by podcasters, YouTubers, and disgruntled Rangers fans alike. Just this week, in Orange Country he scored his first career hat trick. In short, and though he is tall, he rules.
Or rather, he rules when he’s allowed to rule. There’s one game state where Pro gets suspiciously little opportunity.
| Even strength* | Penalty kill | Power play | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time | 977 | 105 | 10 |
| Goals | 26 | 2 | 0 |
| Assists | 27 | 2 | 1 |
“Even strength” above includes empty-net situations. This awkwardness is the great sadness of my life, and I don’t want to talk about it.
Among full-time Caps forwards, only two get less power-play time than Pro: Nic Dowd (four minutes) and Brandon Duhaime (two minutes). Ethen Frank, who has played in 44 fewer games, has had four more minutes of PP time than Pro. Except for a stretch before the Four Nations break, power-play time for Protas seemed like it was an accident.
This is odd, and Spencer Carbery knows it.
“Pro has earned the opportunity to play,” Carbery said earlier this month. “We’ve held off 50 games of him being as productive of a five-on-five player as there is in the league. And so he’s going to get a look to be able to play power play as long as it doesn’t diminish what he continues to do five-on-five and on the penalty kill. We’ll give him a chance to prove himself there.”
In the meantime, Protas remains one of the most impactful even-strength players in the entire league. Here are the top ten forwards in even-strength goals-above-replacement (GAR), a catch-all statistic from Evolving Hockey.
| Player | Even-strength GAR |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 17.7 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 15.9 |
| Rickard Rakell | 13.9 |
| Anders Lee | 13.4 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 13.3 |
| David Pastrnak | 12.7 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 12.6 |
| Aliaksei Protas | 12.5 |
| Sam Reinhart | 12.5 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 12.4 |
Please also note Protas’ common linemate (408 minutes together), Pierre-Luc Dubois, is second best in the league, behind only Leon Draisaitl, who should crest 100 points in the next week. PLD has been a major contributor to Protas’ breakout season.
For a player to be so productive without any real power-play time is rare. Among full-time NHL forwards who get under a minute of power-play time per game this season, the average five-on-five points rate is 1.3. Protas’s is more than double that: 2.8. That’s fifth best in the league, among a cohort of players — like Tage Thompson, Jason Roberston, and Nikita Kucherov — who otherwise average more than three minutes of power-play time per game.
Forwards who score like Protas get lots of power-play time, and forwards who get power-play time like Protas don’t score much at all. Eventually, that’s gotta balance out.
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