Despite losing two games in a row, the Washington Capitals have proved through their first twenty games to be a fearsome thing. In every metric that matters, they’ve demonstrated dramatic improvement over last season and exceeded the expectations of every eminent hockey analyst.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic predicted the Capitals would get 85 standings points this season. Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz predicted 90. I predicted 91. You predicted 95. They’re on pace for 111.
There has been a profound, unexpected, and thrilling leap in quality of this team since last year, and it’s made for some of the best hockey-watching in a long time. Twenty games in, we can start to add quantities to those qualities. Here’s all the things we know about the Caps. This will be on a team level, with player-level analysis coming later.
The Caps are a playoff team
When we took preseason predictions, 87 percent of you said the Capitals would make the playoffs, and it looks like you’ll be right. If the Caps were to continue at their current pace, they’d record 111 standings points, their highest total since 2016-17, not counting partial, pro-rated seasons. That would be an obvious lock for the postseason and a strong argument for being a Cup contender.
There are a lot of reasons why the Caps might drop as the season goes on, but if they record points at just a league-average level (a points percentage of 55), they’d still gather 95 total – enough to make the playoffs nearly all the time – and precisely what your preseason prediction was.
The Caps are just okay at puck possession
Of the total shot attempts taken by either team during five-on-five play, 50.4 percent belong to the Washington Capitals, only slightly above even, ranking them 16th in the league.
Sitting in the middle of the pack is the consequence of the Caps controlling drastically less of play in November than they did in October. In October 🎃, The Caps placed third in shot-attempt percentage (55.7 percent); in November 🦃, they have placed 26th (46.4 percent).
It’s hard, at this level, to make sense of that drop-off, especially considering Washington’s opponents in November have been significantly weaker (average points pace of 90.0) than they were in October (95.6). We’ll get more into this when we look at players individually.
The Caps are extraordinary at generating shot quality
Though raw shot totals don’t flatter Washington, when those shots are weighted for how likely each is to become a goal (i.e. if they were fired against a league-average goalie), the team looks far better. The Caps control 52.7 percent of the total on-ice expected goals, ranking them 10th in the league – an improvement of six places compared to when measured by totals. The difference is mostly on offense, where the average attempt has a 4.9 percent chance of becoming a goal, second highest in the league, where average is around 4.3 percent.
The Caps generate 12.7 high-danger chances per hour, third best in the league behind Carolina and Pittsburgh – and they convert on those chances better than any team in the league. Looking at a heatmap of Washington’s offense from Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz, the Caps crash the net at a high rate. See the red blob at top, near the opponent’s net.
Only one team in the past three seasons has shown a higher danger-per-attempt rate over a full season: Connor McDavid’s 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers. Is that sustainable for Alex Ovechkin’s 2024-25 Capitals?
The Caps have room for improvement on defense
At shot suppression, the Capitals are not remarkable. Opponents attempt 62.1 shots per hour against them, which is high (only nine teams allow more), but due to high blocking totals, they sit near the league’s center at both rate of unblocked attempts and shots-on-goal by opponents.
But on average, opponents are getting more quality than the Capitals would like. Weighted by danger, Washington’s opponents are generating 2.7 expected goals per hour, 8th highest in the league. That’s a function of volume (opponents having the puck too much) rather than the Capitals struggling to limit the danger of each attempt; the average opponent attempt is right at league average in danger per attempt (4.3 percent, 17th place).
Looking at a heatmap of opponent attempts against the Caps, the problem area is obvious.
It’s the slot – between the faceoff circles, both low (near the net) and high (nearer to the blue line). There’s a lot of reason to hope defensive numbers might improve as the season wears on, but more on that when we get to individual players.
The Caps are depending on puck luck for their success
During five-on-five play, Washington has the highest shooting percentage in the league, 13.6 percent, where league average is right around nine percent. Hot shooting (aside from the power play) is the main reason why the Caps have 81 goals (all situations) this season, third place, and why they’re in a virtual tie with Winnipeg for the most goals per game.
In the difference between actual goals and expected goals in all situations, the Caps are in sixth place, scoring 9.6 goals more than expected based on shot volume and danger. That puts them behind only Winnipeg, Vegas, Minnesota, and the Florida teams. Those teams are generally to the bottom right of the graph below.
(Note the Pittsburgh Penguins in last place at top left with a 20-goal deficit. Considering that they place third in high-danger chances per hour, I’d expect them to progress a great deal as the season wears on . . . unless they sell off before that happens.)
If any early-season statistic is most likely to regress towards average, it’s shooting percentage. It’s possible that the Caps have some true finishing talent that is more durable than dumb luck – and you could argue one player in particular is due for a lot better dumb luck – but I think Washington’s shooting will cool off as the season continues. It might not stay this fun forever.
After a rough start, Caps goaltending is strong
On the opposite end of the ice, and after a concerning October, Washington’s goaltending is solid. During five-on-five play, the goalie tandem has saved 4.4 goals better than expected (12th place) with a save percentage of 91.3 (17th place). Adding in the rest of even-strength play, the total jumps to 6.3. Adding in all other game situations, Caps goalies have saved 9.9 goals better than expected, 6th highest in the league.
That number is so good because of a strong November. In October, Thompson and Lindgren allowed 5.4 goals more (i.e. worse) than expected, placing 26th. It may not seem like it, but so far in November the Capitals have had the best goaltending in the league, saving 15 goals better than expected, with an all-situation saving percentage of 92.1, fourth best.
We will divvy up that performance between the two goalies later, but for now the picture is bright.
The Caps power play is due
If you measure just by shot rates, Washington has a mediocre power play, justifying their 23rd rank in five-on-four goal rate (5.3 goals per hour) and 23rd rank in conversion percentage (17.0 percent). The team is right around the middle of the league at generating unblocked shot attempts and getting shots on net (17th place in both), but that’s underselling the team’s potential while a man up.
When those shot attempts are weighted for shot quality, the Caps jump up to third place in the league, 9.3 expected goals per hour; behind New Jersey, whose power-play is second place in conversion; and Dallas, who are just below Washington in 24th place. Like Dallas, Washington is going to leap up those rankings as shooting percentages climb out of the league’s bottom ten. If the Caps were shooting just a league-average 13.6 percent during the power play, they’d still climb ten spots in the rankings.
But Washington’s power play is mostly the story of one man, Alex Ovechkin, who is out for at least a month. We’ll talk more about him later.
The Caps penalty kill is their secret weapon
Ranking fifth place in killing penalties (84.6 percent) and in total goals allowed (eight), the Capitals have little to fear when they’re a man down. While they’re not anything special at limiting opponent attempts overall, the Caps are very good at keeping shots away from high-danger areas, ranking seventh in clearing the crease, which you can see in this heatmap below, where purple blobs means when opponents play the Caps, they shoot less often from that spot compared to when they play against other teams.
That virtue either causes or is complemented by strong goaltending during the penalty kill. Stopping 90.2 percent of shots on goal, the Caps rank fifth during four-on-five play. Overall, they’ve saved 4.7 goals better than expected.
The Capitals are much, much, much better than last year
The Capitals were a playoff team in 2023-24, but they were a historically weak one. They won a dramatic playoff push, but they lost six games in a row during it. They squeaked into the postseason, but they needed all their competitors to crash and burn to do so. And once they made it to the playoffs, they got swept in humiliating fashion.
The 2024-25 Caps are better in ever way.
During five-on-five, goals are up 80 percent! Opponent goals are down 11 percent. Shot attempts are up 14 percent. Opponent shot attempts are down four percent. Expected goals are up 29 percent. Opponent expected goals are down two percent. Shooting percentage is way up, and goaltending is up as well. The power play gets more chances, and the penalty kill limits them better. It’s across the board.
Some regression is coming; that’s inevitable, but the team the Washington Capitals have revealed to us after twenty games is a damn good one. One I’m glad to watch and cover. One I’m glad you’re enjoying with me.
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