Alex Ovechkin will enter the 2024-25 season just 42 goals shy of passing Wayne Gretzky for the NHL’s all-time goal-scoring record, but getting there may not be easy.
After registering the worst goal total of his career (31) in a full 82-game season, Ovechkin will look to continue his ascent another year older (he turns 39 in September) and with even more miles on his body — the power forward’s played a franchise record 1,426 games all with the Capitals.
Spencer Carbery is a believer, though. Not only does the Capitals head coach think his star player can break Gretzky’s mark of 894 by the end of the Russian’s contract in 2025-26, but Carbery believes Ovechkin can do it this season.
“Do I think he can score 42 goals this year?” Carbery said rhetorically to NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti on Monday. “Yes, I do.”
He added, “I absolutely think he’s capable of that.”
There is reason for Carbery’s optimism. After Ovechkin had an ice cold start to the bench boss’s rookie season (8 goals in his first 43 games), he rebounded majorly in the second half of the year, notching 23 goals in his final 36 appearances — good for an Ovechkian 0.64 goals per game. His career average is 0.60.
The Capitals also added several offensive weapons to their roster this summer before Brian MacLellan ceded everyday GM responsibilities to Chris Patrick. Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, and Jakob Chychrun were all brought in to bolster the team’s scoring at five-on-five and on the power play after the Capitals struggled to put the puck in the net at both strengths last season.
The moves signified a Capitals team finally acknowledging that Ovechkin can’t carry the majority of the load anymore. MacLellan emphasized getting his captain some help after Ovechkin went pointless in a playoff series for the first time in his career when the New York Rangers swept the Capitals in 2024’s first round.
“We can’t come in and say he’s got to carry us or he’s got to get 50 goals,” MacLellan said then.
How exactly those pieces fit in and help Ovechkin stay productive in the twilight of his career will land at the feet of Carbery. The 42-year-old bench boss is entering his second season behind Washington’s bench after leading the Capitals to a 40-31-11 record last year, making the playoffs in the final game of the regular season.
“For me, putting himself in good positions to get opportunities is the key,” Carbery said. “And he has shown year after year, including last year, if he puts himself in enough positions to shoot the puck in a good spot, he gets around the net, he’s spending time in the offensive zone, we’re generating power plays, we’re doing a good job on the power play of getting pucks on net, all the things we need to do, he will put the puck in the back of the net.”
Some of Ovechkin’s early struggles from the past year can be chalked up to roster turnover and struggles from key top-six players. The team lost its top two centers, Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov, before February and also didn’t get the sort of contribution they may have been expecting from a free-agent pickup like Max Pacioretty or a veteran like TJ Oshie due to injury.
Despite that, Washington remained in a tight playoff race due to Ovechkin’s historic production. He had the third longest point streak (10 games) for a player age 38 or older in modern NHL history and later had a run in March where he scored eight goals in five games to keep them in that postseason contention.
Carbery’s hope will now be that Ovechkin plays fewer minutes and perhaps more importantly fewer high-impact minutes due to the club’s offseason additions.
The Great Eight is coming off a long summer break due to Washington’s quick elimination and Russia being ineligible to play in the 2024 World Championship.
While the general media focus will remain on Ovechkin chasing Gretzky for another year, the team’s overall goal is to get back into the playoffs and make some noise. Ovechkin said as much when he was asked to assess the team’s offseason moves at the Ovi Cup in Moscow.
“I think we as a staff, our players, his teammates, him, do a really good job of [focusing on], ‘Let’s do the necessary things to get there,” Carbery said. “But there’s no doubt that people inside this organization, coaches, players are excited to hopefully see that day come as soon as possible.”
Ovechkin has a maximum of 164 games left on his current contract to track down a record he arguably should already own without two work stoppages and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Russian sniper has scored at least 42 goals in 13 of his 19 seasons in the NHL and did so as recently as 2022-23, when he scored exactly 42 times.
If Ovechkin can match his goal rate from the second half of last year (0.64), he’ll handily own the record by the end of the season and record his tenth career 50-goal campaign. The same goes if he can just match his career goals per game average (.60), as that would see him find the back of the net 49 times over 82 games.
