Aliaksei Protas is still on the verge of a breakthrough, but we can’t keep saying that every summer.
By the Numbers
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| 6 | goals |
| 23 | assists |
| 78 | games played |
| 13.8 | average ice time |
| On-ice percentages | |
| 48.6 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 50.7 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage |
| 50.0 | 5-on-5 actual goal percentage |
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Peter’s Take
I’ve been optimistic about Protas for two years now, but I’m here still hoping he’s on the verge of a breakthrough. We saw a glimpse of it in his offense – he led the team in initial-assist rate, more than tripling his most common comparator, Tom Wilson. Protas’s individual offense is pretty dismal – he shot just over five percent in the last two seasons combined – but thanks to a combination of speed and a disciplined approach to zone entries (i.e. cross the blue line then immediately feed F2), Protas was maybe the team’s most reliable playmaker. This is damning for the Capitals as a team, but comforting about the player.
Except something is still holding Protas back from nabbing the full-time top-six spot he probably deserves, and that something is the team’s glut of old guys clutching those spots with their withered and bony old hands. Protas got to fill in at five-on-five when the seniors are unwell, and he got a power-play shift when things were really dire – both usages surprising for a player with the highest on-ice goal rate on the team.
I’d wager to say, after Ovechkin, Protas is the player most held back by the team’s roster problems. That’s frustrating when I think about 2023-24 in hindsight, but it’s encouraging for me thinking to the future. I’m now entering year four of “Protas is the future of the Capitals,” and if it doesn’t happen this time I’m giving up, and I’ll have to watch him have a 60-point season in Calgary or something.
Player Summary by ChatGPT
Alexei Protas stuck to the puck like non-toxic glue to pizza in the 2023-24 campaign. With his 6’6″ frame and Belarusian ancestry, this Belarus native reached a career high in points in the 2023-24 campaign. Be that as it may, Protas has a bright future on the Washington Capitals, where he weights 225 lbs and shoots left.
Pro on RMNB
- Before the season, Protas changed his jersey number from 59 to 21. It took me like three months to adjust to this.
- He was in and out of the lineup at the start of the season.
- Early in the year, Protas was a contributing five-on-five scorer.
- Carbery: “I would take it a step further and say he’s been one of our best players overall this year. And that didn’t start that way, and it’s well-documented and he’s continued to get better, better, better. With specifically too, the passing and his ability to set up, he sees the ice really well when he has the puck and knows where his options are.”
- In January, Protas signed a five-year extension worth $3.4 million.
- On the deal: “It’s a big honor. I’m so proud. This team, this organization believed in me. They give me chance to chase my dreams and to reach my dream to play in the NHL. They trust me, they support me, and that’s a really big one for me. Now, I just have to keep working even harder to prove that I deserve to wear this jersey every night.”
- When Dowd was out, Pro played a bit of 4C.
- He had an injury in March, missing about 10 days.
Your Turn
Is Protas really a future top-sixer suffering from a roster blockade, or is Peter lost on hopium?
