You can’t avoid it: Nick Jensen went off a cliff this season.
By the Numbers
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| 1 | goal |
| 13 | assists |
| 78 | games played |
| 19.6 | average ice time |
| On-ice percentages | |
| 44.7 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 44.3 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage |
| 45.8 | 5-on-5 actual goal percentage |
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Peter’s Take
I did not see this one coming. One year ago, Jensen was Washington’s most important and best defender, dodging trade buzz and signing a three-year extension. Then, really from game one, he struggled in 2023-24.
According HockeyViz, Jensen’s on-ice value, measured in a catch-all stat called Synthetic Goals (cool name, imho), plummeted from top-pairing quality to the realm of the seventh defender.
In 2023-24, the Capitals controlled a smaller share of the shot attempts (44.7 percent) during Jensen’s shifts than any other Caps defender’s. Offense, measured in Washington’s expected goals rate, was lowest when he was on the ice. Never a strength for him, he got smoked along the blue line more often, losing his man too frequently.
Why is a hard question in hockey, and like all hard things I try to avoid it. It’s sometimes enough to know merely that a player is not doing well and leave the speculation to others. Was it Carbery’s new defensive system? Maybe, but I don’t think that explains Jensen’s lowered acceleration. Is it just the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune? Probably, but that doesn’t mean it’s inevitable. A miserable summer of intense conditioning might get Jensen back to where he was in 2023, which was a very good place to be. For a Caps team with a paper-thin defense, it’d sure be helpful.
Player Summary by ChatGPT
I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Nick Jensen, 6’1″ right-handed defenceman from Rogers, Minnesota;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
Jens on RMNB
- The early season (really the whole season) was full of upheavals on the defensive lineup.
- It was apparent that Jensen was really struggling.
- Halloween costume: Justin Bieber.
- Jensen got demoted to 7D for a bit. Carbery on the demotion: “I thought he really struggled last game [. . . ] It’s more the puck play and positioning and the decisions. When that gets away from him, that’s where we gotta get that back. The other night it got away from him a little bit so that’s where we as coaches and Mitch Love need to find different options.”
- He missed time in February with an lower-body injury after crashing into the boards.
- Trade buzz connected the Leafs with Jensen.
- In April, Jensen was stretchered off the ice after a hit into the boards from Michael Eyssimont. That night he walked out of the arena under his own power.
- Nic Dowd on the injury, emotionally: “You’re immediately upset [upon seeing the hit] but then when I see Jens laying on the ice like that…it’s tough to see. He’s been a friend of mine for a long time. Our kids grow up together, born around the same time. I know his family really well. Seeing anybody in a vulnerable state like that is challenging but he’s a tough guy so I’m glad to know that he’s doing better now.”
- Jensen did not play the conclusion of the regular season but stayed with the team.
- He returned for Game Four of the Rangers series, which did not go well.
- On his injury: “It was still scary — maybe not as scary as it seemed, but it was still something that I’ve never experienced and my family has never experienced.”
Your Turn
Can Jensen turn it around?
