The Washington Capitals are the ultimate underdogs heading into the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs.
Their matchup with the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers is lopsided on paper from every angle. New York clinched a playoff spot on March 26 while the Capitals and their minus-37 goal differential clinched in Game 82.
The 23 standings points disparity between the two teams is evident in just about every single playoff prediction you can find. Given that you can’t easily find someone picking the Capitals to get out of even just the first round, their chances to win the Stanley Cup are framed as even more slim.
Bracket is set. Cup chances going into the playoffs https://t.co/RbnckCLHNP pic.twitter.com/yvaJNh09Yx
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) April 19, 2024
MoneyPuck gives the Capitals just a 10-percent chance of getting by the Rangers and a 0-percent chance to lift the Cup at the end of the line. The Capitals are the lone team in the entire model to be given a nonexistent shot at winning a championship with the New York Islanders not much better at a 0.1-percent chance.
Dom from The Athletic, who has a long history of his model hating the Capitals, actually gives them a higher shot, 21 percent, at taking down the Rangers. However, his math for the team’s Cup chances matches up with MoneyPuck’s, giving Washington a big ole goose egg.
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) April 19, 2024
Just in case you needed another example of a statistical model doubting the Capitals, we have Micah Blake McCurdy from Hockeyviz with his results. His very groovy-looking visualization that looks like every carpet from the 1970s combined has the Capitals’ odds of beating New York at 38 percent, the highest of the three analytical models.
2023-2024 Playoffs
🌈💀🎀 Day 0 pic.twitter.com/uqRRLRoZtD— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 20, 2024
While Micah’s math may be the most bullish on Washington’s chances of winning a round, he still has their chances at taking home the franchise’s second Cup also at virtually zero percent.
For those less inclined to have blind faith in numbers, the Capitals are also getting picked against in the more traditional methods. ESPN polled 26 of their hockey experts about each first-round matchup. 25 of the 26 picked the Rangers over the Capitals.
No other series was as unanimous as Washington and New York’s. The only brave solider to pick the Caps, Sean Allen, is a fantasy hockey analyst for ESPN. According to the rest of his colleagues, he’s currently living in a fantasy world.
But, not only do the Capitals have almost all of mankind against them, they also have man’s best friend chiming in against them as well.
Steph Furry, the trick-shotting corgi, is also going with the Rangers.
Before every member of mankind and all of their pets picked against his team, Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin had already readily accepted the underdog role. The Great Eight hasn’t been picked against in many first-round playoff matchups during his legendary career but clearly understands the test that lies before his team this spring.
“Yeah, we all understand how we have to play, what kind of team New York is going to be,” Ovechkin said Thursday. “We’re just going to play it game by game and see what happens.”
The Capitals will have their first chance at shocking the hockey world on Sunday. Puck drop for Game One of the series is set for 3 pm inside Madison Square Garden.
