With a 7-2-1 record in their last ten games, the Washington Capitals are playing better than at any point in the season since early November. Something has changed with the team, and it would behoove us to figure out what.
For starters, the winning is obvious.
The Capitals were really struggling late-January through mid-February, but since then they’ve taken points from all but two games.
How that winning has come about is complicated. Below is the team’s shot-attempt percentage over time – meaning how many of both teams’ shot attempts during five-on-five play belong to the Capitals. You want to be over 50 percent, which the Capitals finally were after the all-star break.
The all-star break is also when Evgeny Kuznetsov left the team, initially to go into the player-assistance program and finally through trade. While Kuznetsov’s exit is an important factor in the team’s improvement, it’s critical to note that the team was already getting better weeks before Kuznetsov left. In any case, the Caps are finally at a respectable level, and they’ve sustained it for more than ten games.
If we split shot-attempt rates by the Capitals and their opponents, we can see the progress is happening on both sides of the puck.
The blue line is Washington’s opponents, who are getting fewer attempts than at any time in the season – down five per hour from the season high. Meanwhile, the Capitals’ offense, which has been by far their biggest statistical weakness, has ticked up – right now up more than six from their season low. The Capitals are shooting more and defending less, and that’s great news.
But those numbers still aren’t great on a league level. Washington’s offense rate (going by attempts) still ranks 26th in the league since the all-star break. The team’s shot suppression fares better, placing 17th. (If at any point you find your enthusiasm for the Caps flagging, I think that’s because they don’t have the puck enough and don’t do as much with it compared to what we are used to.)
Except recently, that doesn’t matter so much. Even with limited volume, the Caps have been burying their chances. The team has had more quality per attempt (i.e. expected goals divided by shot attempts) than all but six teams since the break, and their finishing has been even better. Their five-on-five shooting percentage is a league-high 12.2 percent, more than any other team by a big margin.
Saving hasn’t been as good, a middle-of-the-pack 90.6 percent, which you have to chalk up to those recent blowout losses to Arizona and Detroit. They’ve been darn good except when they’re terrible.
When you add together a team’s shooting percentage and saving percentage, you get a stat called PDO. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, but it can be a helpful way to understand how a team’s results have been driven by those percentages. Washington’s PDO is at a season high.
PDO is a telling stat because it’s unreliable. A team’s recent PDO past is not necessarily helpful at predicting their upcoming PDO future. And since PDO often powers streaks, it can hint if a team’s got a sustainable winning formula or not.
Washington does not have a sustainable winning formula, but that doesn’t mean they’re not playing better. They really are, and it’s coming from unexpected places. The main player I must call out is Sonny Milano, who came back on February 17, game 53, while Washington was already on the upswing but not yet peaking. The Caps have outscored opponents 8 to 1 while Milano has been on the ice during five-on-five, and Milano personally scored half of those goals.
Another player excelling is Aliaksei Protas, who has seen the Capitals well in the black during his shifts, controlling 52.1 percent of the attempts, 55.0 percent of the expected goals, and 65.0 percent (13 to 7) of the actual goals. On the blue line, Trevor van Riemsdyk has enjoyed the same goal differential. Caps youngsters – Hendrix Lapierre, Ethan Bear, and Beck Malenstyn – all have had positive goal differentials since the all-star break. And my sentimental favorite, 31-year-old Mike Sgarbossa, has helped his lines in the bottom six control 55.0 percent of the expected goals since his call-up on February 6.
If there’s any theme to the names above, it’s that they’re not members of Washington’s supposed core. Despite exciting individual scoring, Alex Ovechkin has watched the Caps get outscored 12 to 10 during five-on-five since the break, and poor Tom Wilson is having a rough go, with 10 opponents goals to just four for the Caps. While Wilson has been underwater in the process stats, it’s mild, with Washington owning 47.8 percent of the shot attempts. The real shortfall comes from a PDO depression: 5.1 percent shooting and 88.9 percent saving. For comparison, the Caps as a whole are shooting 12.2 percent and saving 90.6 percent. Wilson is getting excluded from the bender; I wouldn’t pin much of that on the player himself.
But there’s one more factor I have to consider. The average pace of Washington’s last 10 opponents is 83.0 points. Only one of those teams, the Florida Panthers, is a lock to make the playoffs. The Capitals now embark on a long road trip, and their next ten opponents currently average a pace of 102.3 points. Of that group, only Seattle Kraken and Calgary Flames are surely going to miss the playoffs. The Detroit Red Wings, who recently handed the Caps an 8-3 whipping, are currently a coin toss to make the postseason according to HockeyViz.
Strength of schedule has been Washington’s ally since the all-star break, and now it will abandon them. Tankathon says the remainder of Capitals’ season is the toughest in the league.
None of this should take away from recent victories. And considering that those victories have been carried by younger and marginal players is all the more reason to feel good about this team and their future. But the stretch run is ahead of us, and it looks daunting.
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