I’ve been starting a lot of stories lately by citing the Washington Capitals’ playoff chances according to various sources. I’m not going to do it again; just know that they’re low. It’s unlikely I’m going to have to grow that grotesque pencil mustache, but that also means the Caps are in an exciting position. If they choose to sell before the trade deadline one month from today (and they absolutely, positively should), the team would get in return assets that would accelerate their, um, let’s just call it a retooling process.
Those trades would require parting with players with various levels of importance to the team, and they’re not all no-brainers. Here now are the Capitals’ most likely bargaining chips, in order from most obvious to most edgy.
Anthony Mantha
$5.8 million per season, expires this summer
On track to double his pro-rated goal output from last season, this 29-year-old winger has finally shown he’s capable of producing. A lot of his 15 goals have come on the rush, which is definitely where Mantha is most dangerous, but it’s also the kind of speedy offense Washington struggles to get in general. His value hasn’t been higher since he came to DC, and other team’s scouting knows what kind of support Mantha would need to succeed, and those teams are much more likely to have it.
The Caps were right to keep Mantha last summer. In November they were rumored to be shopping the player, and his value has only gone up since then. It’s time to pull the trigger.
Nic Dowd
$1.3 million, expires after 2024-25
The market for centers is out of control. Elias Lindholm, who is fine, cost the Canucks a haul (Kuzmenko, a first-round pick, two defensive prospects, and a conditional fourth-round pick). Sean Monahan, who is pretty okay, cost the Jets a first-round pick and a conditional third-round pick. Scott Laughton, who is not at all good, might cost as much as a first-round pick. Given those comparables, Nic Dowd, a.k.a Peter’s Favorite Caps Player of 2022, is an extremely attractive asset.
He plays the toughest minutes in the entire league (just 10.9 percent of his shifts start in the offensive zone, lower than any other NHL forward except his linemates), he anchors two marginal NHL players in Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel, and yet he’s still seen his team outscore opponents 18 to 12 during his shifts. Basically, he’s an ideal fourth-line player who would be coveted by most playoff-bound teams. With one full year on his contract, he’s also got value beyond pure rental. Some insiders have been wishy-washy on the Caps’ eagerness to deal such an important role player, but given their apparent status in the rebuild cycle, it’s the right move.
Max Pacioretty
$2 million, expires this summer
There are two complications with Pacioretty, and they’re both discouraging. The former 30-goal scorer has just one in 13 games (though he’s got six assists). You could chalk that up to Washington’s overall struggles or shaking off the dust after a long recovery, but in either circumstance, his top-line stats do not look good.
The other problem is his contract status. Pacioretty has a full no-move clause. I can see why people consider that an automatic no for trading, but it’s just not true. An NMC just means the player has to be treated like a partner in the deal. Either he chooses the team then the Caps make it work, or the Caps come up with a deal then Pacioretty gets the veto. In either case, the crucial factor is whether or not he wants to join a Cup contender, and I’m comfortable answering that on his behalf: he does.
I’m not bullish on Pacioretty getting moved, but it’s still more likely than the next player.
Charlie Lindgren*
$1.1 million, expires after 2024-25
I admit this is controversial, but hear me out. Lindgren ranks 12th among the league’s top 60 goalies in goals-saved-above-expected rate. He’s hand-delivered multiple wins to a Capitals team whose goal support has collapsed this season, and that might be exactly what the team doesn’t want after the trade deadline on March 8.
Lindgren’s value has never been higher, and it may never be higher in the future. Meanwhile, the market for goalies has never been thirstier. Carolina, New Jersey, Colorado, and Edmonton would and should be looking for a goalie upgrade in the next month, and they’ll be competing with each other to get one, driving up the cost. The return for a very good goalie on a dirt-cheap contract with a full season left would be massive. The Caps should do it.
(* or they could trade Darcy Kuemper, who is on a down season on a more expensive contract, but whose track record is still impressive. I don’t think they should do that.)
I’m terrible at predicting returns for players, but looking at the above it sure seems like the Capitals could gain two first-round picks here, and more. That plus the team’s own first-round pick, which will be high, could put the team’s rebuild into hyperdrive, shortening the great ravine of fan enthusiasm we’ve seen in the last year. In a season with so much disappointment, I think that’s reason to get excited again.
