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    Home / Analysis / Old foes and old woes: numbers for the morning after

    Old foes and old woes: numbers for the morning after

    By Chris Cerullo

     1 Comment

    January 18, 2021 6:30 am

    Old foes and old woes were the stories that led to the Washington Capitals’ first “defeat” of this strange season, 4-3 to the ole pesky Pittsburgh Penguins. I put defeat in quotes because when you lose in a shootout…did you really lose a hockey game?

    The Pens outshot the Caps 27 to 23 and the five-on-five shot attempts were locked up at 32 apiece.

    • Much like the second game in Buffalo there were some things about this Caps performance that I liked and others that I am worried about. Peter Laviolette mentioned the same exact thing in his postgame presser so that has soothed some of my qualms as it shows this coaching staff knows there is still work yet to do. So what were those things I liked and the things I didn’t like? Let’s start with the overall picture. Outside of the first 14 seconds, the Caps played basically a perfect first period, jumping all over the Pens and coming out with a 2-1 lead. Unfortunately, perfection ended there and they were downright terrible in the second and also second-best in the third.
    • Despite the aforementioned poor final two periods, the Caps probably should have still won this game and were unlucky not to so that is something we can take solace in as well as the loser point for making it to the extra frame. I also am of the opinion that the Penguins are in fact “not actually bad” this season even if that was sorta in question for some reason after they got dunked on by the Flyers in their first two games of the season. I feel like you’ll take a point on the road in Pittsburgh, especially if the Caps come out better on Tuesday and end up with the full two there.
    • A major issue so far this season in my eyes has been the play of the Caps supposed top pairing of Dmitry Orlov and John Carlson. It’s still early and the potential for that pairing to find its legs and dominate is there, but they have bled grade-A chances for the opposition in the first three games together. The two have an expected goal percentage under 27-percent so far this season and in this particular game Orlov was on the ice at five-on-five for five Pittsburgh scoring chances to the Caps zero and Carlson similarly was on the ice for five Pittsburgh high danger chances to the Caps two.

    Evgeny Kuznetsov picked up the primary assist on Ovechkin's goal. Kuznetsov is one of 15 forwards in the NHL that has recorded at least 40 assists in four of the previous five seasons, and he ranked 14th in assists during that span (237).

    — CapitalsPR (@CapitalsPR) January 17, 2021

    • Tom Wilson has obviously jumped off the page as far as individual players go and you could easily say he’s been the best Caps forward in 2021. He has made multiple strong plays that have led straight to Caps goals and he’s a major part of a penalty kill that is dominating early on. The line he is currently on, however…I don’t think works and really never has. The Jakub Vrana and Evgeny Kuznetsov connection has historically struggled defensively no matter who lines up on their right side. The two since 2018 when Vrana started getting top-six minutes have combined at five-on-five for a 47.6-percent shot attempt percentage, a 49.5-percent scoring chance for percentage, a 44.3-percent high danger chance for percentage, and a 46.8-percent expected goals percentage. I’ll leave this long-winded bullet with this nugget. Those numbers may seem “bad”, but they are still far better than when you use the same statistics to compare the Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin connection since 2018. So, insert shrug emoji here.
    • When I say “old woes”, I mean the incessant desire for Caps players to spend multiple minutes in the penalty box. The second game in a row where the Caps have put their opponent on five man advantages. They killed them all off yet again, but if Laviolette wants his boys to put 80 shot attempts a game towards opposing goaltenders like he says he wants, his boys need to not play down a man so often. This is a very cold take, but it’s incredibly hard to get into any sort of rhythm as a team when you’re constantly shooting yourself in the foot for 16-percent of a hockey game.
    • Onto the two new faces on the blueline, Justin Schultz and Zdeno Chara. I think both have been excellent to start this season. Schultz in particular seemed really up to play against his former mates and delivered a very positive performance in all three zones.

    Numbers thanks to Hockey-reference.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

    RMNB Coverage of Caps at Penguins

    Screenshot courtesy of NBC Sports

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