We know the Washington Capitals will face in the first round the owner of the Eastern Conference’s first wild-card spot, but we don’t know who that is. At the dawn of the final day of the regular season, that team could be Carolina Hurricanes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, or the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Here’s a cheat sheet for how it could go down.

As of the beginning of Saturday, here’s how the standings look. Teams that we care about right now are in pink.

Using those standings, the remaining schedule, and probabilities from HockeyViz, here are all the possible scenarios, as far as I know:

Caps vs Hurricanes (52-percent likely)

If CAR beats PHI and PIT beats NYR,

or

CAR loses to PHI and CBJ loses to OTT in regulation.

Caps vs Blue Jackets (31-percent likely)

If CBJ beats OTT and CAR loses to PHI,

or

if CBJ takes a point from OTT and CAR takes none from PHI.

Caps vs Penguins (17-percent likely)

If PIT loses in regulation to NYR and CAR beats PHI.

There’s a lot more at stake today. The only two match-ups locked in are San Jose vs Vegas and Boston vs Toronto. Pittsburgh and New York both want home ice. Whoever falls to the second wild-card spot in the East will face the Tampa juggernaut.

It’s gonna be a fun night. What match-up are you hoping for?

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