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Twenty games in: Bottom-six forwards

By Peter Hassett

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November 25, 2018 11:30 am

The only place in the Caps lineup that significantly changed from last season, the bottom six has been a mixed bag. For every good performance – like Lars Eller filling in for Evgeny Kuznetsov or Brett Connolly racking up points – there have been just as many problems – like the fella in the picture at the top of this story.

We’ll get to Andre below, but there’s a lot of struggling happening in the bottom six, and the Caps would be well served to address it.

On Ice

  • TOI = time on ice during 5-on-5 play
  • SA% = shot-attempt percentage, the share of total attempts by either team that belong to WSH
  • xGF% = expected goals-for percentage, the share of total expected goals (a function of shot volume and shot quality) by either team that belong to WSH
  • GF% = goals for, the share fo total goals by either team that belong to WSH
  • ZSR = zone start ratio, the share of non-neutral zone starts that begin in the offensive zone
  • Sh% = team-level shooting percentage for WSH when player is on the ice
  • Sv%  = team-level saving percentage for WSH when player is on the ice

Individual

  • iSA/60 = player’s shot attempt rate per hour
  • ixGF/60 = player’s expected goals per hour
  • GS/60 = player’s game score per hour, a catch-all stat to describe total contributions to winning a game
  • P1/60 = player’s primary points per hour
  • iSh% = player’s shooting percentage
  • Pen Diff = player’s penalty differential

Scoring, All Game Situations

As of November 24

Observations

  • As a team, Washington has a very high game pace, meaning the sum of shot attempts by both teams per hour. Fourth-line forward Nic Dowd counteracts this, slowing the pace of the game more than any other forward (to 92.5 per hour). This is a virtue for a bottom liner, so it’s a shame that Dowd isn’t used much at 5-on-5. Another fourth liner, Travis Boyd, does the opposite — opening up play for 112.1 attempts per hour. That’s a red flag, so let’s dig deeper.
  • It’s apparent from the Vollman usage chart below that Boyd takes the most defensive-zone starts on the team, including some face-off/get-off shifts with other lines. This chart shows where forwards take their zone starts (left means more defensively, right means more offensively) and the quality of their competition (using their opponents’ average expected-goals percentage). The size of the circle means the percentage of 5-on-5 ice time the player gets (bigger means more). Boyd is bottom left; Dowd is the small unlabeled red circle nearby.
  • Boyd’s role is ostensibly a version of Jay Beagle’s from last season. To be blunt, that was a tactical blunder by Barry Trotz, and it would have cost the Caps the championship if not for Beagle enjoying extremely fortunate on-ice percentages. So it’s staggering to learn that Boyd is actually doing significantly worse than Beagle; every measurement we have suggests that he’s overwhelmed out there: the Caps get outshot more than 60:40, the pace of the game skyrockets, and opponents get their shots from more dangerous areas. But the Caps as a team are shooting a team-high 15.8 percent during Boyd’s shifts, which might be masking the trouble. This won’t last, and it will hurt.
  • Here’s one last way to understand the impact Boyd is having. This is a with-or-without-you visualization from hockeyviz. The black boxes show when a player is on the ice with Boyd; the red shows when that same player is on ice without Boyd. If the black box is to the top right of the red box, that means the player does better with shot attempts with Boyd – except that doesn’t happen at all. Every player does significantly worse with Boyd.
  • In addition to his offensive volume, Burakovsky’s become more timid below the faceoff circles. Since his injuries, his average shot distance has grown from 29 feet to 32 feet. We can see this effect in his expected goal rate – which considers shot quality (based on location and other factors) in addition to shot volume.
  • Andre is no longer flirting with 0.7 expected goals per hour, which would have him fit in among goal-scoring top-six forwards. For context, I’ve included a distribution of individual expected-goal rates for NHL forwards below so you can see where Andre’s rates place him now.
  • Individual expected goals isn’t a primary metric for a top-six forward because it doesn’t consider linemates’ scoring, but it’s important for understanding what Andre’s value had been: his individual production. Now, he’s in a tough situation. He either has to regain his scoring touch despite massive challenges, or he has to carve out a new role for himself by playing a smarter, more dependable, less exciting style that is contrary to everything he’s done since he started playing for Sweden’s U20 team in 2013-14. That latter option comes with a much lower salary ceiling, so I understand why Burakovsky’s still trying to playing the way he is. I wonder, should this be Andre’s last season in Washington, if another club will recognize his potential and take him on as a low-risk/high-reward reclamation project.
  • Lars Eller has spent less time with Burakovsky this season (98 minutes together, 185 of him without Burakovsky), so we can’t blame Eller’s slightly down season (47.9 percent of shot attempts) on Andre. Eller’s linemates have been inconsistent this season, and he’s been asked to step into the top six now that Kuznetsov’s out, so I’m holding out hope that he’ll right the ship.
  • I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Dmitrij Jaskin so far, but it’s worth noting the wide gap between his volume (SA%) and quality (xGF%) in his possession stats. Despite the Caps owning 54.3 percent of shot attempts while he’s on the ice, the Caps own just 42.3 percent of expected goals. That’s a huge drop, and I don’t know what to make of it yet; I suspect it’s either a tactics or personnel issue, and I’ll be following it closely. Here, from hockeyviz, are heatmap’s of the offense (left) and defense (right) when Jaskin’s on the ice.
  • Finally, Brett Connolly is on the last year of a $1.5 million AAV deal, and apparently he knows it. Connolly’s offensive rates are up across the board, including a near-doubling of his shots on goal. His 9.4 individual percent shooting is actually low for him and his ice time is up by a couple shifts per game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Connolly put up career high numbers and get himself a cushy payday in free agency this summer. A bottom-six forward who can score and who can step up into the top six when needed is a valuable commodity, and Connolly has shown he can be just that with the right support.

Next up: the blue line

This article would not be possible without Corsica, Hockeyviz, and Natural Stat Trick. Please consider joining RMNB in supporting them via Patreon. All data as of November 19 unless noted otherwise.

Headline photo: Elizabeth Kong

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