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What to expect from the Caps’ opening night lineup

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We now have a good idea of how the Washington Capitals will line up as they begin to defend their Stanley Cup Championship, which is something I like to work into sentences whenever I can. The game one lineup goes a little something like this:

Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Connolly
Vrana – Backstrom – Oshie
Burakovsky – Eller – Stephenson
Walker – Dowd – Smith-Pelly

Orlov – Niskanen
Djoos – Carlson
Orpik – Bowey

Holtby

Prior to Tom Wilson’s suspension (which is likely coming later today), the preseason lines almost exactly like the unit who won the Cup in June. With Wilson almost certainly out, with Brett Connolly takes his spot on the top line, which gives Chandler Stephenson a promotion to the third line and lets Nathan Walker sneak into the fourth line. Meanwhile on defense, Madison Bowey steps in for Michal Kempny, who is day-to-day with a presumed concussion.

Here now is a rundown of the lines, how they’ve changed due to the Wilson suspension, how they’re supposed to work, how they fared last season, and what we should expect from them in 2018-19.

Forwards

First line: Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Wilson*

* Expected to miss game one to suspension

Time on Ice 231
Shot attempt % 51.1
Expected goal % 50.4
Caps goals 15
Opponent goals 11
PDO 103.4
Zone start ratio 66.0

Eighteen people voted for the playoff MVP Conn Smythe award this past summer, and all eighteen agreed it was someone on this line. The Ovi line (Kuzy Edition) is primarily a weapon for offense. Last season they got tons of faceoffs in the offensive zone (a 66.0 zone start ratio, perhaps because Trotz didn’t like Kuznetsov taking D-zone draws), and they were pretty punishing there. Once the playoffs began, their play improved, with attempts jumping to 53.9 percent and their expected goals to 64.1.

Tom Wilson’s contribution to this line is controversial. For example, sometimes he concusses his opponents and breaks their jaws. At other times, his speed and transition play can facilitate the fast-thinking Ovechkin and Kuznetsov to create quick offensive strikes like this one:

Wilson can also help mitigate some of the defensive weaknesses inherent in Ovechkin’s play style, but none of that matters for the next few games while Wilson is likely to serve time for injuring Oskar Sundqvist.

Heatmaps from Hockeyviz

Offense Defense

Second line: Vrana, Backstrom, Oshie

Time on Ice 71
Shot attempt % 51.9
Expected goal % 56.0
Caps goals 1
Opponent goals 3
PDO 93.8
Zone start ratio 28.6

This line was not used much during the regular season, and Backstrom’s injury in the playoffs made them pretty scant there too (78 more minutes), but there’s still a lot to get excited about here. The Backstrom line is dependable and heavily leveraged, starting the vast majority of their shifts in the D-zone during the regular season (with more spotty, match-up based deployments in the playoffs). But despite that disadvantage, the line safely drove play with shot attempts and expected goals both above 50 percent. Nicklas Backstrom is the line’s main feature – he’s one of the toughest players in the entire league when it comes to separating a skater from the puck.

Vrana is an x-factor here. Backstrom-Oshie as a pairing spent time with Burakovsky and Stephenson as well, but Vrana’s ability to get to the front of the net and take shots from high-danger areas is perhaps the best on the team, giving this reliable trio a bit more danger in the offensive zone.

Heatmaps from Hockeyviz

Offense Defense

Third line: Burakovsky, Eller, Connolly*

*  Promoted to the first line in lieu of Wilson. Chandler Stephenson will play here instead.

Time on Ice 212
Shot attempt % 48.1
Expected goal % 38.8
Caps goals 4
Opponent goals 11
PDO 94.5
Zone start ratio 58.4

In 2016-17, this trio was among the best in the entire NHL, but the systemic issues afflicting the Caps and Burakovsky’s recurring injuries made 2017-18 a major setback for them. It’s curious that the team was near-even in shot attempts (48.1 percent) but got positively smoked when you factor in the quality of those shot attempts as expected goals (38.8 percent).

There’s evidence that the bad times are already behind them. In 62 minutes together in the playoffs, this line owned north of 60 percent of attempts and expected goals. They also delivered the Cup-winning goal.

Heatmaps from Hockeyviz

Offense Defense

Fourth line: Stephenson*, Dowd, Smith-Pelly

* Stephenson will play on the third line in game one, with Nathan Walker taking his spot on the fourth line

Time on Ice 194
Shot attempt % 39.7
Expected goal % 46.6
Caps goals 4
Opponent goals 7
PDO 97.4
Zone start ratio 30.1

Honestly, throw these numbers and charts out. They’re all based on the Caps’ fourth line from last season with Jay Beagle at center. Beagle’s in Vancouver now, and this line’s deployment may change dramatically as a result. I don’t think Todd Reirden will use his grinders as a crutch – taking every possible defensive-zone faecoff even if they struggle after the puck drops – to nearly the extent that Trotz did.

That would be a very welcome change. The Beagle line last season delivered virtually no offense and bled shots. It should be noted that this version of the Beagle line, however, kept expected goals significantly closer to even (46.6 percent) than their shot-attempt percentage (39.7 percent) would suggest.

I have no idea how this line will fare, but I’m almost more interested in how they’ll be used.

Heatmaps from Hockeyviz

Offense Defense

Defense

First pair: Orlov, Niskanen

Time on Ice 1147
Shot attempt % 49.2
Expected goal % 47.8
Caps goals 49
Opponent goals 40
PDO 102.2
Zone start ratio 45.6

Once Niskanen returned from his early-season injury, his duo with Orlov became the Caps’ most Stable on the blue line. As such they were fed alarmingly tough assignments in the regular season and playoffs, but they handled them superbly – keeping shot-attempt percentages and expected goals just under 50 percent. Once the rest of the defense stabilized in February, Orlov-Niskanen became a bona-fide shutdown pairing, belying prior notions that Niskanen was having a down year.

One can understand why these two players are overlooked. Orlov is often considered a more offensive player and less competent defensive player than his statistics justify, and Niskanen’s play is all low-key competence, hard to appreciate moment-to-moment but impossible to deny on a pattern level.

There’s no reason not to expect more of the same from Orlov-Niskanen, either of whom may yet be dark-horse candidates for a Norris.

Heatmaps from Hockeyviz

Offense Defense

Second pair: Djoos, Carlson

Time on Ice 531
Shot attempt % 53.2
Expected goal % 54.7
Caps goals 29
Opponent goals 22
PDO 101.7
Zone start ratio 58.1

With Michal Kempny sidelined due to a presumed concussion, the Djoos-Carlson pair feels like a replacement, but perhaps they shouldn’t be. Over a pretty healthy sample last season, 531 minutes, Christian and John were dominant. Activated offensively (thanks to Orlov-Niskanen jumping on that grenade), Carlson-Djoos had a ton of offense, a credit to Carlson’s individual offense rate but also Djoos’ emerging talent as a passer and play activator.

Their only downside is that they’re a bit high-event in both directions, which coaches tend to hate, but as long as the Caps are getting more of those events I don’t mind one bit. When Kempny returns, I hope Reirden considers keeping Carlson and Djoos together so that Kempny can help out where he’s more direly needed.

Heatmaps from Hockeyviz

Offense Defense

Third pair: Orpik, Bowey

Time on Ice 410
Shot attempt % 42.4
Expected goal % 39.0
Caps goals 8
Opponent goals 15
PDO 99.0
Zone start ratio 53.8

Without mincing words, this was the worst defensive pairing in the NHL last season. The rookie Bowey with the veteran Orpik never looked comfortable on the ice, especially against quicker teams on the rush. The result was both players ranking in the bottom 10 among 224 defenseman based on opponent high-danger chance.

The Caps knew this wasn’t working. In Mid-February they assigned Bowey to Hershey and acquired Michal Kempny. And yet, somehow, it’s October and they’re giving it another go. With Jonas Siegenthaler getting an extended look in the preseason and Kempny having a day-to-day status, it’s hopeful that this pairing won’t last long. It could be brutal.

Heatmaps from Hockeyviz

Offense Defense

This article would not be possible without data from Corsica and Hockeyviz. Please consider joining RMNB in supporting them on Patreon.

Headline: Chris Gordon

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