Phillip Grubauer had quite the year. As presumptive (maybe?) goalie going into Game One against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Grubauer’s body of work this season has been sterling. One particular stat has him rated as perhaps the very best goalie in the entire NHL.
Using Corsica’s Expected Goals model, we can see how many goals a goalie saved compared to what a league-average goalie would have saved. Considering his ice time, Grubauer saved more additional goals than any goalie in the league. He prevented 0.65 goals for every hour of 5-on-5 play (or 0.65 GSAA60). That’s one fewer goal approximately every two games (or 92 minutes of 5-on-5 play).
But, as illustrated by Sean Tierney of Hockey Graphs and The Athletic, Grubauer has some dangerous company.
Goals saved above average per 60
Grubby and Bob were best and some fun names enjoyed renaissance years (Luongo, Rinne, Quick).
No goalie submarined their team more than Craig Anderson.https://t.co/0g9bBhj1oO pic.twitter.com/LCFTzV9GuD— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) April 9, 2018
Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is right behind Grubauer, with 0.64 additional goals saved per hour. And when you consider how much more ice Bob got as the Blue Jackets’ number-one goalie, well…
Goals saved above average (total, 5v5)
Bobrovsky saved ~34 goals more than a league average goalie would have. That’s incredible.
Grubauer was great in far fewer opportunities. He’s second with ~16 goals saved. That’s 18 (gulp!) behind Bob. pic.twitter.com/ocuIGSt3m0— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) April 9, 2018
Grubauer saved 16.3 goals compared to what was expected. Bobrovsky saved 33.9.
Now, both of these numbers should be considered in context. Washington was rated the 5th worst team at preventing expected opponent goals – allowing 2.6 per hour. Columbus wasn’t much better – 9th worst with 2.5 per hour. Bob and Grubauer stand out because they were great in goal, of course, but more importantly because they were good in front of bad defensive teams.
Here, via hockeyviz, are heatmaps of where opponent shots came from versus each team.
|
WSH |
CBJ |
Both teams allowed a lot of shots from the most dangerous areas of the ice, something each team would do well to consider in when making match-ups.
Here’s the full rundown for all goalies with at least 1000 minutes.
| Goalie | Games Played | Goals | Goal (Expected) | Goals Saved Above Average | GSAA/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRUBAUER (WSH) | 35 | 46 | 62.3 | 16.3 | 0.65 |
| BOBROVSKY (CBJ) | 65 | 102 | 135.9 | 33.9 | 0.64 |
| MILLER (ANA) | 28 | 29 | 40.0 | 11.0 | 0.63 |
| SAROS (NSH) | 26 | 42 | 52.3 | 10.3 | 0.53 |
| CRAWFORD (CHI) | 28 | 43 | 52.9 | 9.9 | 0.49 |
| HUTTON (STL) | 32 | 37 | 46.4 | 9.4 | 0.43 |
| LUONGO (FLA) | 35 | 60 | 69.4 | 9.4 | 0.36 |
| GIBSON (ANA) | 60 | 103 | 117.1 | 14.1 | 0.31 |
| RINNE (NSH) | 59 | 86 | 99.1 | 13.1 | 0.29 |
| KUEMPER (L.A/ARI) | 29 | 44 | 49.8 | 5.8 | 0.27 |
| VARLAMOV (COL) | 51 | 81 | 90.5 | 9.5 | 0.26 |
| QUICK (L.A) | 64 | 103 | 114.5 | 11.5 | 0.24 |
| FLEURY (VGK) | 46 | 75 | 83.3 | 8.2 | 0.23 |
| RAANTA (ARI) | 47 | 68 | 75.0 | 7.1 | 0.20 |
| ANDERSEN (TOR) | 66 | 135 | 145.2 | 10.3 | 0.19 |
| ELLIOTT (PHI) | 43 | 65 | 70.7 | 5.7 | 0.17 |
| KHUDOBIN (BOS) | 31 | 49 | 52.9 | 3.9 | 0.17 |
| SMITH (CGY) | 55 | 93 | 99.8 | 6.8 | 0.16 |
| HALAK (NYI) | 54 | 103 | 109.5 | 6.5 | 0.16 |
| VASILEVSKIY (T.B) | 65 | 111 | 114.5 | 3.5 | 0.07 |
| DELL (S.J) | 29 | 49 | 50.1 | 1.1 | 0.05 |
| LUNDQVIST (NYR) | 63 | 129 | 131.2 | 2.2 | 0.05 |
| HELLEBUYCK (WPG) | 67 | 104 | 106.2 | 2.2 | 0.04 |
| LEHTONEN (DAL) | 37 | 47 | 47.5 | 0.6 | 0.02 |
| RASK (BOS) | 54 | 88 | 88.7 | 0.7 | 0.02 |
| MRAZEK (DET/PHI) | 39 | 69 | 68.9 | -0.1 | 0.00 |
| KINKAID (N.J) | 41 | 80 | 79.2 | -0.8 | -0.03 |
| TALBOT (EDM) | 67 | 139 | 137.7 | -1.4 | -0.03 |
| CONDON (OTT) | 31 | 58 | 57.2 | -0.7 | -0.03 |
| MARKSTROM (VAN) | 59 | 105 | 102.9 | -2.2 | -0.05 |
| BISHOP (DAL) | 53 | 83 | 81.1 | -1.9 | -0.05 |
| NILSSON (VAN) | 27 | 57 | 55.9 | -1.1 | -0.05 |
| ALLEN (STL) | 59 | 100 | 97.4 | -2.6 | -0.06 |
| HOWARD (DET) | 59 | 108 | 105.3 | -2.7 | -0.06 |
| HOLTBY (WSH) | 54 | 107 | 104.2 | -2.7 | -0.07 |
| REIMER (FLA) | 44 | 87 | 84.4 | -2.6 | -0.08 |
| SCHNEIDER (N.J) | 40 | 78 | 75.5 | -2.5 | -0.08 |
| BERNIER (COL) | 37 | 56 | 53.7 | -2.3 | -0.09 |
| JONES (S.J) | 60 | 115 | 109.8 | -5.3 | -0.11 |
| WARD (CAR) | 43 | 81 | 77.0 | -4.0 | -0.12 |
| LEHNER (BUF) | 53 | 95 | 89.5 | -5.5 | -0.15 |
| DUBNYK (MIN) | 60 | 98 | 90.5 | -7.6 | -0.16 |
| JARRY (PIT) | 26 | 49 | 43.1 | -5.9 | -0.32 |
| FORSBERG (CHI) | 35 | 68 | 60.2 | -7.8 | -0.34 |
| STALOCK (MIN) | 28 | 46 | 39.4 | -6.6 | -0.35 |
| GREISS (NYI) | 27 | 66 | 58.2 | -7.8 | -0.38 |
| DARLING (CAR) | 43 | 96 | 81.7 | -14.3 | -0.42 |
| PRICE (MTL) | 49 | 100 | 82.2 | -17.8 | -0.47 |
| MURRAY (PIT) | 34 | 69 | 57.6 | -11.4 | -0.48 |
| ANDERSON (OTT) | 58 | 136 | 112.4 | -23.6 | -0.55 |
| JOHNSON (BUF) | 36 | 74 | 60.9 | -13.1 | -0.55 |
This article wouldn’t be possible without Corsica, and Hockeyviz. You can join us in supporting each of them on Patreon.
Headline photo: Abbie Parr/Getty Images
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