Being there: Snapshot 9

In 2013, Chris Boyle, then of Habs Eyes On the Prize created a landmark data visualization for hockey. Boyle graphed how a team’s shot share (i.e. what percent of attempts belonged to that team instead of their opponents) over the regular season compared to how that team did in the postseason. It was eye-opening. I consider it a foundational text for understanding how and intuiting why “possession” matters.

The vis is like a dartboard, with the bullseye at center being the championship. Around it are four quadrants representing regular-season shot-attempt percentages, which I’ll describe with the overlay below.

Teams that “control play” (i.e. have a high shot-attempt percentage) during the regular season tended to have better outcomes in the postseason. Teams that play “on their heels” (i.e. have a low shot-attempt percentage) tend to miss the playoffs and rarely go far if they make it at all.

The exceptions are fascinating. In 2010, the Washington Capitals were a powerhouse, but they were eliminated in the first round by the Montreal Canadiens. In 2009, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the Cup despite mediocre shot-attempt numbers – though they fired their coach 55 games into the season and dominated thereafter. I like those two examples because they teach us that 5-on-5 shot attempts are not the only thing that “matters” and that there is always more detail to explore.

Nonetheless, precedent says that the 2017-18 Washington Capitals are in deep trouble this postseason. This is the topic of the final snapshot.

Forwards

Defense

Notes

• Before we get to players, a minor process note: Boyle’s visualization used only unblocked shot attempts (excluding blocked shots) and counted only the parts of games when the score was close. Today we tend to include blocked shots to improve small samples and count all 5-on-5 play (but weighting blowouts lower than close or tied game situations to reduce distortions).
• I performed a similar study, but with way less handsome graphics. In this graph, I pulled a bunch 5-on-5 stats (all adjusted by score state) for all teams since 2008, and grouped them by their postseason results. You’ll need to click to see it full size. 
• The results aren’t surprising. Teams that drive play during 5-on-5 play (measured in shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, high-danger chances, expected goals, or actual goals) tend to win games in the playoffs. Teams that don’t usually don’t make the playoffs at all. Now here’s the same graph, but with the 2018 Capitals at left, which is a good place for them.

• With the exception of goals (the thing that matters most, and a topic about which I’ve written a ton this season), during 5-on-5 the Caps played more like a lottery team than a Cup contender. Teams this bad at things this important rarely go deep in the playoffs. The 2010 Canadiens and the 2017 Senators, who each lost in conference finals, are probably the happiest examples of postseason success despite regular-season problems in process.
• Now here’s the same information but with the 2018 Blue Jackets. They’re a damn fine team, but they haven’t gotten goals to match their process – quite unlike the Caps.

• Just because, here’s all that information as a table.

• Enough with the implied despair. Now for some important caveats. The snapshot has a powerful bias towards even-strength play. It ignores entirely all special teams, which the Jackets have been bad at and the Caps have been pretty darn good at. I’m sure we’ll have more information about that before the series begins.
• But more importantly, an average of the regular season obscures the progress that the team has made over the course of that season. If I had to choose an inflection point for the season, I’d say it was around Valentine’s Day, just prior to the trade deadline, when Michal Kempny and Jakub Jerabek joined the team.

• The Caps improved everywhere except goals (this moment coincided with Holtby’s swoon), but they especially got better at shot quality. Opponent high-danger chances cratered right around the same time that Madison Bowey got assigned to Hershey and Brooks Orpik‘s ice time declined.

• That’s encouraging, but that period of the season also saw the Caps facing their weakest opponents (going by our 5-on-5 process stats) of the season. With their opponents averaging 48 percent of expected goals in March, you could argue that the Caps had the easiest stretch run in the league.
• Jay Beagle‘s status for Game One of the loffs is uncertain. Without retreading old ground, I’ll say that Beagle’s 41.7 shot-attempt percentage (SA%) is bottom five among forwards in league. He’s in a virtual tie with 41-year-old Matt Cullen.
• Alex Ovechkin will win his seventh Rocket Richard. The not-so-secret secret: Ovi’s shot volume is buckwild. He attempts more than 20 shot attempts per hour during 5-on-5 (third highest shot rate in the league behind only Tarasenko and Gallagher). Combined with special teams, Ovi has once again put the most shots on goal in the NHL (355).
• I made a point above about how Kempny’s and Jerabek’s addition helped the team’s defense. Just for clarity’s sake, the numbers in the snapshot above include their times in Chicago and Montreal respectively. Cara asked me the other day which of the two new defensemen I prefer. She and I both agreed it’s Kempny, whose playmaking creativity outclasses Jerabek, but it’s close. I have a suspicion they’ll both play against Columbus, which is unfortunate for Christian Djoos, who has put up a fine rookie season.
• Evgeny Kuznetsov and Lars Eller, both centers, both drag the Caps’ possession down (-1.1 and -0.5 percentage points, respectively). For Kuznetsov, this decline was expected given his inferior linemates. Eller has been more of a curious case, and it could be important for the playoffs. Eller was among the team’s worst at limiting opponent shot attempts (52.6 per hour) and shot quality (2.6 expected goals per hour), and Kuznetsov is right there with him. If Barry Trotz wants to assign a line to shutdown duty, like he did so successfully with the Johansson-Kuznetsov-Williams line against Auston Matthews last year, he doesn’t any obvious options.
• John Carlson will finish the season with 2032 minutes played over 82 games. That’s the fifth highest among any player in the league. Carlson’s season deserves closer scrutiny, especially as he nears a payday that should be wonderful for him and may be perilous for his team, but we have a more pressing question: will there be a cost to his postseason performance for having all those miles on him during the regular season?
• Jakub Vrana (50.1 SA%, third highest individual shot attempt rate and fifth highest 5-on-5 goal rate among forwards) and Andre Burakovsky (team-high 52.0 SA% and team-best suppression of opponent shot attempts) had rollercoaster seasons, but they should be proud of their perseverance in the face of adversity. I look forward to their shifts in these playoffs and the future.
• Two final notes to wrap it up. First, while these stats are useful for describing the past and projecting the future, I think they are also useful experientially. I enjoyed watching the Caps this season, but not as much as I did before. The on-ice entertainment Capitals product is not what it used to be. You see it when the team team flails in their own zone as the Carolina Hurricanes harry their breakout.  You see it when they struggle to coordinate a viable path through neutral ice, and you see it when they give up gluts of gut-shot scoring chances to opponents on their side of the ice. The team lacks deliberation, and you see it in the stats. Maybe it’s silly, but I like watching a team that gets more shot attempts than their opponents. I’d probably feel differently if I were a Hurricanes fan though.
• Lastly, thank you for reading this ridiculous column. I had a very specific idea in mind when we started (i.e. do what Chris Boyle did, but week-by-week), but it turned into something different. Doing the snapshot has been helpful and healthful for how I think. I’m more comfortable with uncertainty and contradiction than I was before, and I’m more cognizant of the limits of the abilities (mine and the community’s) to wholly describe things as chaotic as hockey. The past is never more than a whispered hint about what the future may be. The 2010 Capitals were a nearly flawless team, but they lost anyway. The 2018 Capitals have lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of flaws, but they’re going to win the fucking Stanley Cup.

Glossary

• GP. Games played.
• TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
• SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
• Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
• GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
• PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.

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