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Deadline approaching: Snapshot 7

By Patrick Holden (@russianmachine) on February 25, 2018 | 0 Comment

The NHL trade deadline is quickly approaching and many of the Caps’ rivals in the East have already made significant moves to bolster their rosters with even more moves yet to come. The Caps have made two smaller moves, the already minimal impact of which will be nearly completely eliminated by the fact that either of the two new defenders acquired will replace Madison Bowey in the lineup, not Brooks Orpik.

But should we expect or want the Caps to make more moves before Monday’s trade deadline? On the former issue, Brian MacLellan has stated he will not deal away any of the team’s high draft picks in 2018 for a deadline acquisition. However, Bob McKenzie has reported that the Caps have been checking in on some defenders who would almost certainly cost the team high draft picks.

On the latter issue, of whether we should want the Caps to make significant moves before the deadline, I’m sure there will be many people who disagree with me. I think the Caps should absolutely be looking to deal future assets (i.e. draft picks) in order to bolster the current team. The Caps are a flawed team and aren’t widely considered to be a favorite for the Cup. But they are also certainly a team talented enough to make the playoffs, with a few elite difference makers, and we all know anything can happen once you make the playoffs. The Caps should be looking to increasing the odds of “anything” breaking their way in the playoffs this season.

Further to this point, it would be a mixed message if the Caps decided to play it safe this trade deadline. Why in the world did the team re-sign TJ Oshie (and, to a lesser extent Lars Eller, and why do they seem hellbent on bringing back John Carlson) if they weren’t planning on aggressively pursuing a Stanley Cup in the short term?

The Caps only have three playoffs runs left with the current contracts of Nick Backstrom and Braden Holtby. Alex Ovechkin is 32 and scoring like he’s 22. The Caps may not have a great shot at a sustained playoff run, but they’ve only got a few seasons left of having any shot of a sustained playoff run. The leaders on this team aren’t getting any younger. The Caps should be aggressive to give this team a better chance in the playoffs while guys like Backstrom and Ovechkin are still capable of leading a team.

With all this in mind, let’s see where the Caps stand heading into the deadline.

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% Rel SA% GF% PDO
Burakovsky 36 427 51.8 +3.7 37.5 96.2
Backstrom 61 871 51.8 +4.9 58.0 102.7
Wilson 58 786 51.3 +3.9 52.9 102.3
Vrana 56 686 50.7 +2.9 49.5 99.2
Ovechkin 62 913 50.6 +3.3 59.3 103.9
Oshie 56 758 49.7 +2.0 57.8 102.3
Eller 61 707 49.5 +1.5 46.3 99.9
Connolly 53 542 46.8 -2.3 46.6 102.5
Kuznetsov 62 883 46.8 -2.3 55.1 102.9
Stephenson 49 518 45.8 -3.2 58.7 103.5
Chiasson 51 483 44.8 -4.1 47.1 101.7
Smith-Pelly 58 655 44.8 -4.5 50.1 101.2
Beagle 62 601 41.8 -8.0 50.1 102.9

Defense

Player GP TOI SA% Rel SA% GF% PDO
Djoos 53 708 52.0 +5.3 57.6 102.8
Orlov 62 1187 50.1 +3.1 54.5 101.7
Carlson 62 1095 49.7 +1.6 50.6 101.1
Niskanen 48 901 48.8 +0.9 57.6 103.8
Bowey 51 674 44.7 -3.4 43.8 100.2
Orpik 62 1026 44.5 -6.3 40.9 99.9

Notes

  • The Caps sit 23rd in the league with a 48.4 shot-attempt percentage. They rank 21st in the league with 48.2 shot attempts for per 60 and 25th with 51.4 opponent shot attempts per 60. Not great.
  • In addition to that, there’s a lot of trends to be concerned about

  • These first two bullets may make it seem confusing as to why I’m advocating the Caps going all-in. Well, they certainly aren’t going to enter a rebuild, not yet. And, given that, they should go with confidence and intention in the direction they want to go. Hanging out in the middle and playing it safe, not really rebuilding and not really contending, is a good way to guarantee that the future will be painful while minimizing your chance of winning presently.
  • Andre Burakovsky has been off this season. But I still think he should be one of the team’s 12 forwards dressed every night, even when he struggles. But it’s nice to see Burakovsky put together a recent hot stretch that should cement his spot in the lineup for a while.
  • But it’s important to keep perspective when talking about Burakovsky’s struggles. While it’s entirely possible he may be a maddeningly inconsistent player through his career, he’s still accomplished a lot at such a young age. In his first four seasons in the league, at ages 19-22, Burakovsky has 46 goals, 112 points, and 359 shots on goal. Over the last 18 seasons, only 75 other players have accomplished that. And the list of names, for the most part, is pretty impressive.
  • This is even more impressive when you consider Burakovsky’s ice time, especially on the power play, has been limited at times during his first four seasons. At 5-on-5, Burakovsky’s 1.9 points per 60 ranks 69th (nice) among 545 forwards since he entered the league (600 minute minimum). That rate production is elite.
  • It’s time we talk about TJ Oshie. After all, the guy has less 5-on-5 goals this season than the likes of Andre “trade him” Burakovsky, Jay Beagle, Chandler Stephenson, and Alex Chiasson. This isn’t just a concussion-related issue. Oshie’s production at 5-on-5 has been nonexistent all season, it was just covered up early on by the fact that he was shooting about 40 percent on the power play. Just how bad has his production been this season? Well…

  • Here’s a good visual from Good Tweet Pete on the topic:

  • The good news is Oshie’s play hasn’t been as bad as his 5-on-5 production. But, it is worth noting that his all-around production this season is more in line with his career than last season. Oshie is a career 13.4 percent shooter; he’s at 12.2 percent this season (last season he finished at an insane 23.1 percent).
  • Chandler Stephenson’s shot numbers don’t scream “feel positive about this guy” but here we are anyways. He can skate really well and seems like a decent candidate to center a speedy fourth line next season assuming Beagle isn’t back. I’m bullish on Stephenson’s future as a bottom-six fixture despite some less than stellar returns on shot rates. His shot-attempt percentage with Beagle is 41.9 percent but jumps to 47.8 without him. This, at least in part, is due to playing with better linemates and having fewer defensive zone responsibilities than when he’s with Beagle.
  • Jakub Vrana keeps getting scratched and it’s a bad coaching decision. One thing that may have flown under the radar this season is that Vrana leads the team in individual penalty differential at plus-eight. That’s three better than the next closest teammate, Oshie.
  • I know to many the criticisms of Brooks Orpik seem like beating a dead horse at this point. But it would be hard to overstate just how bad he’s been this season. Kevin at Japers’ Rink had a good article recently that showed Orpik is performing worse than John Erskine was during the season Erskine was so bad that it ended his career. It’s not as if this is just an advanced stats argument and the coaching staff can somehow ignore it because it’s not showing up on the score sheet. Check out just how bad Orpik’s on-ice goal differential has gotten lately:
  • In an ideal world, one of the ways the Caps would bolster their defense at the deadline would be to take Orpik out of the lineup. But we know that isn’t happening. Word is that on Sunday morning at Kettler, Orpik was skating alongside Christian Djoos on the team’s third pairing. While a decrease in minutes for Djoos wouldn’t be ideal, perhaps he can help fix Orpik. After all, Djoos has some similarities to Nate Schmidt, who formed a tremendous third pair with Orpik last season.
  • The numbers and my eyes suggest that Matt Niskanen isn’t quite right this season. I’m not ready to commit to any possible theories on why yet but it’s something that has my eye and that I’ll continue to watch.

So, into the deadline we go. The Caps have plenty of flaws but they also have the talent to make the playoffs and then be a difficult matchup for anyone they face. The Caps only have so many season left of an elite Ovechkin, and with Backstrom and Holtby on their roster. The time to make a move to increase catching fire in the playoffs is now.

Glossary

  • GP. Games played.
  • TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
  • SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
  • GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.

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