Streak ended: numbers for the morning after

January 12, 2018 9:36 am

The Washington Capitals went into Thursday night’s home fixture with the Carolina Hurricanes winners of their last ten games at Capital One Arena. That streak is now finished after the Caps fell 3-1 to the Canes, but ten was a cool round number anyway.

The Caps were out-shot by the Hurricanes 33 to 28 and out-attempted five-on-five 54 to 48.

A thing that I did not like near the beginning of the season has returned and I still do not like it. Devante Smith-Pelly has been a welcome surprise and I think he should get a jersey every night, but not on the first line ever again. That line had the worst five-on-five scoring chance for percentage on the whole team at a little over 34 percent. DSP just cannot stick with the big boys when it comes to creating supreme offensive chances or finishing those same chances. I thought this was obvious the first time they tried it.
For someone who was almost scratched before an unfortunate Andre Burakovsky illness, Brett Connolly actually had a pretty great game in the limited minutes he was given. He led the team in five-on-five shot attempt percentage at 64 percent and scoring chance for percentage at 75 percent. He also finished with four shots on goal and was dangerous on the power play.
The third line overall was the Caps best line. That line is of course led by Tiger, the Great Dane, Larry, Lars Eller. Eller is now on a three-game goal scoring streak after his tally in this one and has four goals in his last six games. Sign da ting Lars, come back next season.
Everyone’s favorite, infallible Swedish angel, Christian Djoos had another positive possession game. However, that was probably significantly helped by the fact that only one of his 14 five-on-five zone starts occurred in the Caps defensive zone.
For what it’s worth in a game that the Capitals lost, I really liked how Barry Trotz and company handled the defensive minutes in this one. Djoos, Madison Bowey, and Brooks Orpik all hovered near the 15 minute mark at five-on-five (although there is evidence that Djoos deserves more minutes than that, I’ll take my victories where I can get them). John Carlson played a little more than them at around 17 minutes and then Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen deservedly ran the show as both approached twenty minutes of five-on-five action.
The Pittsburgh Penguins potentially have two players going to this years All Star Game until Sidney Crosby inevitably takes a one-game suspension to not attend. However, they should not have had two players in the first place because for some reason they’ve not been good for the first half of this season. Kris Letang, via the powers that be, robbed Carlson of his first all star appearance. I want a riot.
Speaking of the Penguins, the Capitals losing this game in regulation actually increased the Hurricanes odds of making the playoffs by a pretty substantial eight percent (all according to Micah’s model shown below). It doesn’t do much at all of affecting the Capitals chances, but it does impact the Pens. The lesson to be learned here is that losing isn’t fun unless it hurts the Pittsburgh Penguins. I’ll clarify all of this a little more in the comments below.

Tonight's game means a little more to Carolina than it does to Washington. pic.twitter.com/luxtWdx1Z8

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) January 11, 2018