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Down the stretch they come: Snapshot 11

By Patrick Holden

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April 2, 2017 10:33 am

The finish line is in sight for the 2016-17 regular season and, despite Friday’s drubbing at the hands of the Coyotes and the fact that this Caps team will be judged by what they do in the playoffs, it’d be hard to argue this regular season in its entirety has been anything but a smashing success.

Here’s a non-exhaustive list of some of the reasons this regular season has been so great:

  • For the first time in franchise history, the Caps had four separate win streaks of six games or more.
  • Entering Sunday’s game against the Blue Jackets, the Caps lead the league in goal differential at plus-75. This is plus-15 more than the second place Blue Jackets. The Caps rank second in goals for and first in goals against.
  • They have the league’s third most effective power play and seventh best penalty kill.
  • Braden Holtby could win the Vezina again.
  • TJ Oshie became a thirty-goal scorer for the first time in his career.
  • Ten (!) players racked up 30 points or more and Jay Beagle (!!!!) only needs one more point to make it 11.
  • Eleven players reached double digits in goals.

So yeah, this team has had an excellent season and has been a lot of fun to watch. While this won’t excuse anything that may or may not happen in the playoffs, it shouldn’t be forgotten that this is an era we’ll be able to look back on fondly.

Let’s do the snapshot and dig a little deeper into the numbers.

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% Rel SA% GF% PDO
Burakovsky 59 664 57.0 +4.7 60.9 102.3
Eller 76 833 56.5 +4.2 60.8 101.7
Connolly 63 628 55.8 +2.9 69.4 104.3
Williams 76 946 55.7 +3.2 59.5 101.4
Johansson 77 1019 54.5 +1.7 63.0 103.3
Kuznetsov 77 1048 53.5 +0.2 61.3 103.4
Oshie 64 828 53.5 0.0 64.8 104.5
Backstrom 77 1024 52.5 -1.3 61.4 103.1
Ovechkin 77 1052 51.7 -2.5 58.4 102.7
Wilson 77 794 51.7 -2.0 59.2 102.6
Winnik 67 660 51.5 -2.1 62.8 103.4
Beagle 76 763 48.4 -6.2 63.9 104.7

Defense

Player GP TOI SA% Rel SA% GF% PDO
Niskanen 74 1208 55.9 +3.5 59.9 101.7
Orlov 77 1310 55.5 +3.5 62.6 103.0
Shattenkirk 13 214 55.2 -0.6 56.8 99.8
Schmidt 56 785 55.0 +2.7 63.8 103.6
Orpik 74 1082 54.4 +1.4 65.8 103.7
Carlson 71 1120 51.4 -3.6 56.4 102.0
Alzner 77 1216 49.1 -6.4 59.8 103.5
Chorney 17 222 45.9 -5.7 71.8 108.6

Observations

  • The Caps sit third in the league with a 53.3 shot attempt percentage. Over the last 25 games, which many playoff projections use, the Caps sit fourth at 53.1 percent. The Caps have been especially strong in their last 10 games, leading the league with a 55.1 shot attempt percentage.
  • It may seem like the Caps underlying play hasn’t been as strong lately and that’s because their goals-for percentage has dipped. Here’s the 25-game rolling average for the season, courtesy of Corsica:
  • There’s a lot of layers that we could peel away to look at different explanations for why the Caps’ share of the total goals has dipped despite strong underlying play. PDO can help indicate if a run of poor luck is helping to drive this. Expected goals can provide more context in terms of the quality of the shots for and against, giving more than just the high-level look at “puck luck” that PDO does. So, a look at the Caps shot attempt percentage (SA%), goals for percentage (GF%), PDO, and expected goals for percentage (xGF%) for the season, as well as the last 25 games, might help unpack some of what’s going on.
SA% GF% xGF% PDO
Season 53.3 61.1 52.2 102.9
Last 25 games 53.8 54.0 52.1 100.0
  • What I take from this high-level look is that the Caps process over the last 25 games, indicated by the SA% and xGF%, has been consistent with what we’ve seen all season. The difference in the GF% and the PDO indicates that the Caps results over the last 25 games has been more in line with what we should expect, as the GF% and PDO were running at a rate that’s hard to sustain over a full season.
  • The good news is that, and we’ve talked about this in the snapshot throughout the season, this Caps team is still one of the best teams in the league, even when the puck luck subsides. 53.8 percent of the shot attempts, 54 percent of the goals, and 52.1 percent of the expected goals with a 100 PDO over the last 25 games tells us this.
  • For those interested in looking deeper at PDO, the 102.9 for the season is made up of a shooting percentage of 9.4 percent and a save percentage of 93.5 percent. Over the last 25 games, the PDO of 100 comes from a shooting percentage of 8 percent and a save percentage of 92 percent.
  • With the season winding down, it’s a good time to revisit how good the pairing of Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen has been. Among the 100 defensive pairs around the league that skated 300-plus minutes together at 5-on-5, this duo is second in shot attempt percentage and eleventh in goals for percentage. There will likely be some changes on the blue line over the summer, but this duo should return as the top pairing.
  • The first line seems to be ramping up just in time for the playoffs.
  • Twitter questions!

  • Given the money that he’s set to earn and the dip in his play this season, I think the Caps should let Karl Alzner walk and not think twice about it. I also think it’s unlikely they bring back Kevin Shattenkirk and that might also be for the best. He’s likely going to seek a deal six to seven years in length for a cap hit comfortably more than Niskanen’s $5.75 million.
  • There could be a scenario where the Caps decide they want to keep Shattenkirk but they’d need to restructure the blue line a bit for the deal to make sense. Just spitballing, to re-sign Shattenkirk and not have it handcuff the team too much now and long-term, Brooks Orpik‘s contract would have to be moved and John Carlson might have to be moved as well, and Carlson almost certainly will not be re-signed when his deal ends after the 2017-18 season. I realize a lot of people think getting rid of Orpik and Carlson to keep Shattenkirk sounds great, but those things are easier said than done and there are a lot of moving pieces and information that we’re not privy to. On top of that, as good as Shattenkirk is, his next contract will come with a good amount of risk given the term and cap hit he’ll command.
  • I think Shattenkirk has come as advertised. He’s a great skater, makes quick passes, and overall makes the team more of a threat when he’s on the ice. He’s also been the best point man on the power play since Mike Green.

  • Some of us are taking this Nate Schmidt thing better than others. All kidding aside, at the risk of beating a dead horse, my stance on Schmidt remains that he should be in the lineup. He’s been one of the best third-pairing defensemen in the league over the course of his career and has earned a shot at a top-four role somewhere. Maybe it’ll be in DC next year. But it definitely won’t be right now and, while that’s not the end of the world, the team would be better with him in the lineup.

Glossary

  • GP. Games played.
  • TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
  • SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
  • GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.

Most stats are from Corsica, with a little help from Puck On Net.

Headline image: Patrick Smith