As someone who helps runs social media accounts with nearly 80,000 Capitals followers, I’ve stumbled upon a unique position on the internet to make broad observations about where the fanbase sits right now. It’s not good.
Some Caps fans are freaking out right now. A month away from the postseason, the Caps have lost four games in regulation for the first time since Barry Trotz’s first month as coach in 2014. Many have surmised that our favorite team, who once seemed infallible in January and February, peaked too early again. Others worry about the fact that Alex Ovechkin hasn’t scored in ten games. I’ve seen commenters say this season is already over. The community seems fearful about what awaits the Capitals in the playoffs.
My mind has wandered to this place too. And I want to give you the same advice that I told myself: fucking stop it.
Here’s how I see things.
Humans, and animals in general, are filled with anxiety. I was the most miserable adolescent you would ever meet. I got straight A’s in middle school, but I worried every minute of my existence that I wouldn’t. I thought everyone hated me. I assumed all the girls thought I was ugly and would never date me. All I remember, even today, was an intoxicating feeling of impending failure. Feelings sure do have a way of obfuscating reality.
But during my time at Ballenger Creek Middle School, if I actually think about it, I was one of 15 people to make the junior varsity basketball team over 200 other people who tried out. I made a ton of great friends who are still with me today. And I fell in love with art, which is what got me my job out of college and what remains my outlet to express myself.
My point is this: no matter how bad things may seem, humans aren’t always rational. We tend to ignore the good things that are actually happening. We take things for granted.
So that brings me back to the Capitals. I want you to ignore how you’re feeling right now and forget about what’s happened to this team in the past.
Let’s talk about what’s going on right now.
- The Capitals were not outplayed during their west coast road trip. The Capitals lost every game out west, but it was more about bad puck luck than anything else. The Capitals out-attempted their three opponents overall 116-102 at even strength. The Capitals out-attempted both the Ducks and Kings by eight shot attempts. The losses stung, but it’s undeniable that the Capitals played good hockey.
- The Capitals have seen their sky-high shooting percentages crater, but not their underlying play. According to RMNB’s Peter Hassett, the Capitals have had only a minor drop in their offensive rates. As of Saturday, the Capitals’ total shot attempts have fallen 4.3 percent. Expected goals (a function of shot volume and quality) have also dropped from 2.7 to 2.3, which is not insignificant, but both of those declines are dwarfed by the stark decline in shooting percentage. Before the bye week it was 10 percent. Now it’s 7.7 percent. So there’s been slightly lower offensive volume, but, more importantly, there’s been a rash of bad puck luck.
- The Capitals have played a lot of games lately. Are the Capitals not trying hard enough or are they tired? The Capitals have played 12 games in the last 23 days. Out west, the Capitals switched time zones by three hours and played three games in four nights, including daylight savings Sunday morning, when the clocks jumped forward an hour.
- Alex Ovechkin will score again. The Russian machine (27) trails Sidney Crosby (35) for the league lead in goals by eight. Ovechkin, in his twelfth season pro, is experiencing the first double-digit goalless streak of his career, but he’s not the only superstar struggling to score. The NHL is unlikely to see a 50-goal scorer this season for the first time since 2003-04 (in non-lockout-shortened seasons). So sure, Ovechkin’s shot attempt rates are down and he may not score 40 goals this season, but it’s still possible he could win the Richard Trophy anyway.
- The Capitals roster features ten 10-goal scorers. The Capitals feature one of the deepest rosters in the league, which includes four 20-goal scorers. That includes every forward on the Capitals’ first line (Ovechkin, TJ Oshie, and Nicklas Backstrom).
- Andre Burakovsky is close to returning from a hand injury. Burakovsky, who has 11 goals in 52 games this season, skated on the team’s third line consisting of Lars Eller and Marcus Johansson for most of the season and they were dominant together. When the Burracuda returns, he will bolster an already lethal forward corps.
- Braden Holtby is one of the league’s best goaltenders. According to Corsica, Holtby has the second best even-strength save percentage (93.7%) among goalies that have played more than 30 games this season. The only goaltender that has been better is Carey Price (94.0%).
- The Capitals’ power play is arguably better after the Kevin Shattenkirk trade. According to Peter Hassett, the Caps have had 20 percent increases in both scoring chance and expected goal rates since Shatty took over the PPQB1 spot.
- The Washington Capitals are tied for first place in the entire league. Despite losing those four-straight games in regulation and being outscored in those games 17-6, the Capitals are tied for first in the standings (95) and lead in goal differential (plus-66).
- The Capitals play in the best division in hockey. The best three teams in the league are from the Metropolitan Division. That’s why you feel that sweat running down your brow. The Capitals (95) are tied with the Penguins for first place in the division while they lead the Blue Jackets by only one standings point (94). If the Capitals were in the Atlantic Division, they’d lead the Canadiens by nine points (86) and the Senators by 11 (84).
- This is likely the most talented roster the Capitals have had in franchise history. This iteration of the Capitals got off to the second-best start in franchise history and could win the President’s Trophy for a second year in a row. Though we know from experience, winning the Presidents’ Trophy does not guarantee success (lost in first round of the playoffs in 2010 and lost in second round in 2016).
It’s human nature to react before we think and investigate what’s really going on. If something bad happens, we must blame someone (usually Alex Ovechkin) or have some grand conclusion about what is wrong. For some of us, we love the Caps so hard, giving up now is easier than going through another nerve-racking playoff run.
I’ve heard it a million different ways: this iteration of the Caps is not going to get past the second round of the playoffs. I think that’s defeatist. I encourage you to look deeper.
A smart man once said, “the only thing that is the end of the world is the end of the world.” I think that can be applied to the Capitals. The Capitals haven’t lost in the second round of the playoffs until they’ve lost in the second round of the playoffs.
So the next time someone close to you is cynical about this team, show them this post and tell them to enjoy the ride. The Caps are a great team, but they’re not perfect. Neither is life. It was meant to be messy.
Headline photo: Debora Robinson
