In acquiring defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk from the St. Louis Blues last night, Caps GM Brian MacLellan made a key move to help propel the team for a deep postseason run. He snagged the crown jewel of the 2017 NHL trade deadline without sacrificing any true roster players.
While the addition of the 28-year-old top-pairing defensemen doesn’t require sacrificing a key piece of the Caps’ roster, it will shake up the special-teams configurations and blue-line pairings. We will get a better sense of the impact after Brooks Orpik returns from injury, but it may take a while for the playoff-ready pairings to be finalized.
What we do know is that Nate Schmidt is the player most likely to lose his spot in the lineup, if the past is any indication. Schmidt has been the only defenseman this season Barry Trotz has scratched to get Taylor Chorney into the lineup, sitting out eight times through the team’s first 61 games.
Let’s take a closer look at how the pairings might shake out.
First, Shattenkirk could fit nicely on the Caps’ power play, in the John Carlson spot. Shattenkirk leads the Blues with 188 minutes of power-play time, significantly more than the Caps’ leader John Carlson (at 153 minutes). Shattenkirk is also far more prolific than Carlson at scoring when up a man, producing 5.8 points per 60 minutes to Carlson’s 3.5. His experience on the power play could lead him to replace Carlson on the first unit, or it could lead to entirely new wrinkles and configurations for the Caps’ special teams.
In terms of defensive pairings, we can assume that Shattenkirk will rightfully take a spot in the Caps’ top four, meaning some familiar pairings will need to be adjusted. Here are the key stats for the Caps’ six most commonly used pairings to date, all score-adjusted and five-on-five.
| Pairing | Time on Ice | Shot attempt % | Goals-for % | Expected Goals-for % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orpik-Schmidt | 531 | 57.5 | 64.2 | 61.2 |
| Orlov-Niskanen | 452 | 57.5 | 71.3 | 54.5 |
| Alzner-Carlson | 430 | 47.5 | 66.8 | 51.6 |
| Alzner-Niskanen | 419 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.1 |
| Orlov-Carlson | 371 | 51.6 | 53.2 | 50.3 |
| Orlov-Orpik | 122 | 50.6 | 75.8 | 47.1 |
Statistically, the only one that is a total flop is the classic pairing of Carlson and Karl Alzner (Carlzner). According to The Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan, the team is open to breaking up that pairing but would like to keep the much more successful pairing of Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen together.
Think Caps are open to breaking up #Carlzner. But they love Orlov and Niskanen together. https://t.co/QVwOHl7kXq
— Isabelle Khurshudyan (@ikhurshudyan) February 28, 2017
As a right-handed shot, Shattenkirk would ideally be paired with a left-handed shot (Alzner, Orpik, Schmidt, or Orlov). Assuming Orlov is planted with Niskanen (for now) and Nate Schmidt is the likely odd-man out (according to Mike Vogel), that leaves a potential pairing of Shattenkirk with Alzner.
Expect him to replace Orpik tonite, who’s still out with lower body. After that, if all are healthy, guess is 88. https://t.co/QJUk1tRAD5
— Mike Vogel (@VogsCaps) February 28, 2017
Schmidt said trade is tough for him. Thinks it's big for the team, but he'll probably be the guy pushed out. Has talked to Reirden briefly.
— Isabelle Khurshudyan (@ikhurshudyan) February 28, 2017
This would mean a bottom pairing of John Carlson and Brooks Orpik, or some combination of Schmidt, Orpik, and Carlson (with one scratch). Carlson and Orpik put up solid numbers together in almost 300 minutes last year. It does bear noting that the pairing most likely to be broken up, Schmidt and Orpik, is also the best statistically in the table above, although they are the most sheltered.
All that said, some Caps have experience playing on their off-wing and the team may not be wedded to a Shattenkirk pairing involving a left-handed player, or all of the pairings being left shot with right shot. Regardless of how the combinations shake out, the Caps will have some very good players on their bottom pairing and another very good player sitting in the press box each night, ready to play in case of injury. There may not even truly be a one-through-six hierarchy of defensemen at this point.
It will likely take some time and experimentation to determine how Shattenkirk fits into the Caps defensive scheme. But one thing is clear – the team has just acquired a powerful new weapon, and their already deep defensive roster is now almost indisputably the deepest in the league.
Stats courtesy of Corisca.Hockey.
Photo by Chase Agnello-Dean/NHLI.
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