The win streak is over. Long live the points streak.
The Capitals are still the hottest team in the league, but they’re not perfect, and that’s a crying shame. Because we’ve all grown accustomed to two standings points every game and an offense that has scored on 18 percent of its shots since New Years Eve.
But lean days are coming. Just last night we learned that the Capitals will not score at least five goals every game (they scored four), and that revelation has been sobering. So let us all come to grips with a more mild future, where the Capitals are just pretty great instead of flawless.
Let’s do the snapshot.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eller | 45 | 503 | 59.5 | +8.1 | 63.1 | 101.6 |
| Connolly | 32 | 320 | 57.8 | +5.2 | 74.1 | 105.3 |
| Burakovsky | 43 | 495 | 56.3 | +4.2 | 62.6 | 102.9 |
| Williams | 46 | 569 | 55.3 | +2.8 | 59.4 | 101.4 |
| Johansson | 46 | 623 | 53.7 | +0.7 | 63.2 | 104.0 |
| Oshie | 38 | 478 | 53.0 | -0.4 | 68.9 | 106.6 |
| Kuznetsov | 46 | 615 | 52.3 | -1.5 | 64.9 | 105.2 |
| Backstrom | 46 | 608 | 52.2 | -1.5 | 61.5 | 103.7 |
| Ovechkin | 46 | 620 | 51.0 | -3.5 | 59.8 | 103.8 |
| Winnik | 36 | 341 | 50.2 | -3.5 | 77.4 | 107.2 |
| Wilson | 46 | 457 | 50.0 | -3.9 | 68.3 | 106.3 |
| Beagle | 46 | 443 | 47.7 | -6.8 | 69.2 | 106.8 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schmidt | 39 | 551 | 56.8 | +4.6 | 68.8 | 104.7 |
| Niskanen | 45 | 733 | 55.9 | +4.1 | 63.4 | 103.0 |
| Orlov | 46 | 779 | 54.8 | +2.5 | 63.0 | 103.4 |
| Orpik | 46 | 669 | 54.1 | +1.2 | 69.1 | 105.0 |
| Carlson | 43 | 669 | 50.8 | -4.3 | 60.6 | 103.7 |
| Alzner | 46 | 727 | 48.5 | -7.1 | 64.3 | 105.1 |
Observations
- With 53.2 percent of the shot attempts after adjusting for score and venue, the Caps are the third best possession team in the league. Ahead of them are Boston, who sure have rebounded this year, and the Kings, who of course they are.
- Since our last snapshot, everything has gone right for the Caps. They’ve won all but one game, and all their component stats tell the tale. But that has not been for the fourth line, who lost ground in everything but shooting and saving percentages (PDO), and Karl Alzner, who we’ll talk about more below.
- One of the costs of our decision to go biweekly with the snapshot this season is resolution. If we had a snapshot last week, it would have been filled with the highest highs, and then this week’s would’ve been mild by comparison. The Caps haven’t dominated the ice this past week like they had in early January. The win streak that was both very lucky (PDO) and very good (SA%) has been just really lucky and sorta good. That’s okay though; it couldn’t last forever. In honor of the insane shooting and saving the Caps have enjoyed, the PDO column is all in powderpuff pink this week.
- Lars Eller‘s line with Burakovsky and Connolly has played together for 106 minutes so far. Compared to all other forward trios with at least 100 minutes, here’s how they rank: first in shot-attempt percentage, first in shot-on-goal percentage, first in scoring-chance percentage, and second in goal percentage (to an Iginla line in Colorado that has perfect goaltending on more than 60 opponent shots). No matter what stat you think matters, the Caps third line is among the best in hockey right now. Let’s see how they continue down the stretch.
- We’re more than halfway into the season, so we should no longer call it a blip. Alex Ovechkin‘s ice time per game is down by more than two minutes from the last four seasons (18:17, down from around 20:25, all situations). Have we made mental accommodations yet for his end-of-season totals to drop by 10 percent? And Ovechkin’s 5-on-5 offense rate is down by 13 percent, independent of his ice time. While San Jose’s Brent Burns has run away with the shot total race, Ovi’s shot rate is second only to Brendan Gallagher of Montreal. So can Ovechkin catch Carter, Malkin, and Crosby to win his fifth straight and eighth overall Richard trophy for most goals? Yes, I think so, but he’ll need some luck, and some help — especially on the power play.
- Speaking of which, I’ve enjoyed seeing Matt Niskanen on the power play lately. Unfortunately, the Caps don’t seem to be generating more dangerous attempts or more attempts overall with him on the ice (5.6 expected goals per 60 versus 7.6 with Carlson). As frustrating as it is to see the Ovi Shot from the Ovi Spot become less efficient when Carlson is running the show, perhaps the Caps have a more varied attack under his leadership. That’s all a guess though; we need more data.
- Otherwise, Niskanen is clearly Washington’s best defender if I can put my Nate Schmidt sentimentality aside for a moment.
- Now scoring on 21 percent of his shots, TJ Oshie has priced himself out of the Caps’ UFA budget. If he keeps up his current impossible lethality and plays in every remaining game, he’ll get 33 goals, which is three more than 30 by my count
- I don’t have much to say about Brooks Orpik‘s goal percentage; I just think it’s niiiice. I also think this column should be a biweekly reminder to ourselves that Orpik has been a wonderful surprise this season, and maybe we should all drink more kale smoothies and spend more time with Nate Schmidt.
- Hot scoring aside, Jay Beagle is clearly pulling up the rear in the possession game. I find fault in Beagle’s play, but it’s not absolute, and we must consider context. Among NHL forwards with more than 400 minutes this season, Beagle starts a higher percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone than all but Austin Watson, Mark Letestu, Torrey Mitchell, Dennis Rasmussen, Matt Cullen, and Marcus Kruger. Beagle fares better than Letestu and Watson in his assignments.
- Braden Holtby‘s last two starts have been bad. He allowed eight goals on 51 shots for a .843 all situation save percentage. The previous eight goals Holtby allowed came over a stretch of eight games wherein he saved .959 and recorded three shutouts. Goalies are streaky, but this one is streaky good. And yet, I just know he’s kicking himself over those last two games.
- Finally, with John Carlson out to injury, Washington further exposes Taylor Chorney as a 7D. Chorney ranks a distant last among the Caps defense in pretty much every stat except the ones where Karl Alzner gives him a challenge. But Alzner does that only in weird stats like shot-attempt rate, opponent shot-attempt rate, shot-attempt percentage, on-goal rate, opponent on-goal rate, on-goal percentage, scoring-chance rate, opponent scoring-chance rate, scoring-chance percentage, expected goals rate, expected opponent goals rate, and expected goals percentage. Four years ago, Alzner was getting Olympics buzz. Now I don’t know, but the Caps should think long and hard before protecting their iron man in this summer’s expansion draft.
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
- GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.
Headline photo: NBC Sports
All stats from Corsica unless otherwise cited or linked
