The Caps are 24 games into the season and are barely hanging onto a playoff spot. Guys like Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and Justin Williams haven’t been producing as expected. There’s been a lack of offense from the blue line, as the offensively talented trio of John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, and Dmitry Orlov have combined for one goal. The special teams, generally a strong suit among recent Caps teams, rank in the middle of the pack.
Meanwhile, Barry Trotz has stayed cool, calm, and collected through it all. He’s been given plenty of reasons to take away ice time from guys like Kuznetsov or Burakovsky, or scratch Orlov after his mistakes in the third period against the Islanders. But, instead of running out of patience with certain players, Trotz has gone to bat for his guys. He kept a level-headed approach in reacting to Orlov’s miscues against the Isles and expressed confidence that Williams will soon break out of his slump.
In other words, much like Buck Showalter, Trotz likes his guys. And, while some may mistaken his calm for complacency, I think Trotz deserves credit for the approach he’s taken through the bumps of the first 24 games.
There are reasons to be concerned about this Caps team. But there’s also reason to think things will get better. While the former approach may be easier right now, that’s not where the snapshot is headed today. Let’s take a look at the numbers, with an attempt to focus more on what’s gone right and why things might get better.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eller | 22 | 254 | 60.8 | +8.6 | 49.1 | 98,1 |
| Connolly | 15 | 141 | 58.1 | +3.9 | 50.5 | 99.3 |
| Williams | 23 | 276 | 56.2 | +2.8 | 49.2 | 97.0 |
| Johansson | 23 | 314 | 56.2 | +2.9 | 65.8 | 103.7 |
| Winnik | 15 | 135 | 55.1 | +1.9 | 100.0 | 106.6 |
| Burakovsky | 23 | 283 | 55.1 | +1.4 | 47.9 | 99.2 |
| Oshie | 17 | 205 | 55.0 | +0.6 | 80.1 | 108.2 |
| Backstrom | 23 | 307 | 54.4 | +0.4 | 62.1 | 102.7 |
| Wilson | 23 | 235 | 52.0 | -2.6 | 61.0 | 103.5 |
| Kuznetsov | 23 | 303 | 50.9 | -4.7 | 62.4 | 105.1 |
| Beagle | 23 | 211 | 50.2 | -4.7 | 50.9 | 101.1 |
| Ovechkin | 23 | 307 | 49.7 | -6.8 | 56.6 | 103.1 |
| Sanford | 19 | 180 | 49.1 | -5.1 | 44.5 | 99.8 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schmidt | 20 | 275 | 56.1 | +2.7 | 52.4 | 99.9 |
| Orpik | 23 | 321 | 55.6 | +2.2 | 65.2 | 102.8 |
| Niskanen | 23 | 372 | 55.2 | +1.7 | 57.8 | 101.0 |
| Orlov | 23 | 377 | 53.6 | -0.7 | 56.9 | 102.0 |
| Carlson | 23 | 373 | 53.1 | -1.5 | 56.3 | 102.2 |
| Alzner | 23 | 368 | 52.3 | -2.7 | 66.4 | 103.9 |
Observations
- The Caps have a 53.8 percent shot attempt percentage, good for second in the league. The Caps take 57.3 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, good for ninth in the league. On the defensive side, the Caps rank third, allowing 49.3 shots per 60 minutes of 5v5 play.
- The Caps are tied for last in the league in games played but are tied for fifth in regulation wins with 13.
- There’s a number of things contributing to the lack of production from different players. While poor puck luck might not explain all of it, it’s certainly one of the factors. Take, for example, Justin Williams and Lars Eller. When it comes to the difference between expected on-ice goals for per 60 minutes and actual on-ice goals for per 60 minutes among Caps forwards, these two are first and second.
| Player | xGF/60 | GF60 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | 3.34 | 1.51 | 1.83 |
| Eller | 3.01 | 1.49 | 1.52 |
| Connolly | 3.13 | 1.85 | 1.28 |
| Sanford | 2.23 | 1.34 | 0.89 |
| Beagle | 2.37 | 1.78 | 0.59 |
| Burakovsky | 2.64 | 2.26 | 0.38 |
| Winnik | 1.96 | 1.72 | 0.24 |
| Wilson | 2.18 | 2.14 | 0.04 |
| Backstrom | 2.72 | 3.02 | -0.30 |
| Oshie | 2.76 | 3.52 | -0.76 |
| Johansson | 2.65 | 3.51 | -0.86 |
| Ovechkin | 2.55 | 3.45 | -0.9 |
| Kuznetsov | 2.37 | 3.41 | -1.04 |
- Or, how about Andre Burakovsky? While it’s hard to argue with taking a guy off the power play who has one point in about 45 minutes of power play ice time, some of the numbers suggest Burakosvky is due for some better puck luck soon, at least at 5v5. As you can see below, he’s still generating shots at around the same clip, but they haven’t been going in for him so far.
- On Thursday against the Isles, I thought the third line was the Caps best line. But Saturday night in Tampa, Brett Connolly was replaced by Paul Carey on the third line. I’d like to see Connolly get more consistent ice time in the top nine. His possession is solid and he’s about middle of the pack among Caps forwards in how often he shoots. The Caps create a lot of shot attempts in general when he’s on the ice. The Caps see 65.1 shot attempts/60 when Connolly is on the ice, first among the team’s forwards.
- Peter talked about some of Ovechkin’s struggles in the last snapshot. The fact that the Caps take 6.8 percent fewer of the shot attempts with Ovechkin on the ice than on the bench is still concerning. This visual from Micah McCurdy lays it out pretty well. The “8” with the blue square around it is how the Caps do with Ovechkin on the ice in terms of shot attempts. You can see it’s noticeably worse than most of his teammates.
- Dmitry Orlov leads all Caps defenders in 5v5 ice time and the Caps see 56.9 percent of the goals when he’s on the ice. So, it’s not all bad, even when his very noticeable mistakes cost the team two goals within a few minutes.
- It’s December 4th and Brooks Orpik has a 55.6 percent shot attempt percentage.
- Braden Holtby is doing his thing again. He’s current fifth among all NHL goalies (minimum 500 minutes) in 5v5 save percentage at 94.2 percent.
- Holtby hasn’t been able to bail out the penalty kill as much. He’s currently 32nd out of 36 qualifying goalies in save percentage at 4v5, sitting at 82.9 percent. Holtby’s career save percentage at 4v5 is 88.2 percent. This isn’t to say this is all on Holtby, but the Caps penalty kill is limiting shot attempts against better than any other time during Barry Trotz’s tenure in Washington, so a few big saves from Holtby could go a long way to improving the team’s effectiveness on the penalty kill.
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
- GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.
Headline photo: Ethan Miller
Stats from Corsica
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