Peter introduced the weekly snapshot during the 2013 season. The snapshot is a weekly look at Caps players in a few key statistical areas. Looking at these numbers can help us not only analyze what has happened but also allow us to take a more educated guess as to what is going to happen in the future.
People have told me they feel intimidated by advanced stats or think they aren’t good at math, and so they’ve never tried to understand them. Here’s the good news: the stats are really easy to understand and use elementary school-level math.
The snapshot revolves around shot attempt percentage. It’s a stat we use frequently here on the site. But, in case you’re new to the site or new to the snapshot, here’s a quick shot attempt primer:
- Shot attempt percentage is the best predictor we have of future goals. If you look at a team’s record, their current goal total, or their shot attempt percentage, the shot attempt percentage will be the best predictor of how that team will perform in the future. Scoring goals in hockey is pretty important, so a stat that is the best we have at predicting future goals is pretty valuable.
- If we say “Alex Ovechkin has a 52 percent shot attempt percentage,” this means that when Ovechkin is on the ice, 52 percent of the total shot attempts are taken by the Caps (and 48% by the other team).
- If we say “Alex Ovechkin has a +2.5 percent relative shot attempt percentage,” this means that the Caps shot attempt percentage is 2.5 percent better when Ovechkin is on the ice than when he’s on the bench.
- All of these numbers, unless otherwise noted, are for 5-on-5 only and from the invaluable Corsica.
Everyone on board? Good. If you’re trying to learn about this stuff and have questions, leave them in the comments.
The snapshot has been a weekly Sunday column for the last three seasons. Peter wrote them the first two seasons and last season I took over. This season, the snapshot will be a bi-weekly column with Peter and I taking turns writing it.
To the newcomers, welcome. This will be our bi-weekly gathering spot. To the old-timers, how y’all doing?
Let’s do this. Here are the numbers for your 8-2-1 Capitals.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burakovsky | 11 | 142 | 61.0 | +8.8 | 51.1 | 97.1 |
| Eller | 11 | 143 | 56.9 | +3.1 | 71.1 | 103.4 |
| Johansson | 11 | 145 | 56.4 | +2.7 | 67.3 | 104.4 |
| Oshie | 11 | 141 | 56.2 | +1.6 | 80.6 | 107.3 |
| Williams | 11 | 138 | 54.7 | +0.1 | 54.3 | 100.0 |
| Backstrom | 11 | 144 | 54.6 | -0.2 | 57.8 | 101.2 |
| Connolly | 6 | 54 | 53.7 | -2.4 | 76.5 | 105.8 |
| Kuznetsov | 11 | 150 | 53.3 | -2.7 | 65.9 | 106.7 |
| Ovechkin | 11 | 148 | 52.8 | -3.2 | 59.0 | 101.9 |
| Beagle | 11 | 104 | 51.9 | -3.3 | 80.3 | 105.7 |
| Sanford | 9 | 93 | 51.7 | -3.4 | 49.4 | 99.8 |
| Wilson | 11 | 115 | 51.2 | -4.1 | 77.4 | 109.9 |
| Winnik | 7 | 61 | 51.2 | -4.4 | 100 | 107.7 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orpik | 11 | 155 | 57.2 | +3.7 | 71.7 | 105.1 |
| Carlson | 11 | 183 | 56.3 | +2.6 | 61.5 | 102.0 |
| Orlov | 11 | 185 | 55.9 | +2.0 | 64.6 | 102.6 |
| Schmidt | 11 | 152 | 55.7 | +1.4 | 54.0 | 100.0 |
| Niskanen | 11 | 189 | 53.6 | -1.6 | 64.1 | 102.9 |
| Alzner | 11 | 185 | 49.1 | -8.3 | 75.5 | 107.6 |
Observations
- The Caps are currently second in the league with a 54.6 percent shot attempt percentage.
- Hail, hail Brooks Orpik. Not only is he leading the way in shot attempt percentage among his fellow defenders, he’s also a positive relative possession player. An astute observer may note that Orpik was the Caps second best defender in terms of relative shot attempts last season. But, he was still a negative relative possession player in 2015-16, meaning the Caps did better when he was off the ice than on the ice in terms of puck possession. That’s not the case this season. The Caps are driving the play with Orpik on the ice this season. Let that sink in.
- Orpik and Nate Schmidt have been dynamite on the third pairing. Among all defensive pairs in the NHL who have skated 50-plus minutes at 5-on-5 this season, Orpik and Schmidt are the fourth best at limiting opponent shot attempts, allowing just 40.2 shot attempts against per 60 minutes of play.
- For Orpik, suppressing opponent shots is a new development. For Schmidt, it’s nothing new. Here are the top five pairings at limiting opponent shot attempts since Barry Trotz came to DC:
- The Caps limit shots against with Nate Schmidt on the ice more so than any other defender and this isn’t a new trend. A caveat on Schmidt’s role is fair. And maybe Schmidt wouldn’t be able to hack it with a larger role, but he sure has earned a shot at it, don’t you think?
- What in the total hell is going on with Karl Alzner? It’s only been 11 games, so hopefully his play will steady. But the Caps have seen 8.3 percent less of the shot attempts when he’s on the ice versus when he’s off. This is the difference between being a solid playoff team and a bottom feeder. His unsustainably high PDO is propping up his on-ice goal differential at the moment. But if his possession continues to be this bad, the Caps are going to start bleeding goals when he’s on the ice.
- Again, a conversation on role is important here. But research shows defensive zone starts don’t impact possession very much. I’m open to the idea that the analytics community doesn’t properly account for quality of competition, but the current evidence shows that it doesn’t make a huge impact on possession over the course of a season.
- I think reasonable minds can disagree on the impact of a player’s role on that player’s possession stats. His role on the top defensive pair is almost certainly playing a part in his poor numbers. But Alzner’s numbers are so far south of his teammates’ that something else is going on here. So, while we should acknowledge his role on the team as a factor, the numbers suggest that Alzner hasn’t been able to handle the role given to him so far this season. He’s been much better than this in previous seasons, so hopefully he can bounce back. But if not, the Caps are going to need to re-work their defensive workload.
- The Caps opened the season with a top-six of Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Oshie and Johansson-Backstrom-Burakovsky. These two lines dominated possession (two of the best lines in the league), but the goals weren’t coming so Barry Trotz mixed up his lines. I’m in favor of going back to these lines. Yes, I know that spreading out the talent is what the Penguins did and they won the cup. But just because the Penguins won the cup with Malkin, Crosby, and Kessel all on different lines doesn’t mean Tom Wilson needs to be in the top-six over Andre Burakovsky and TJ Oshie.
- The Caps had a shot attempt percentage of plus-14.3 percent when the Johansson-Backstrom-Burakosvky line was on the ice. With Ovechkin-Backstrom-Williams, the Caps are an adequate but underwhelming plus-0.2 percent.
- The third line has been stellar, regardless of who’s been on Lars Eller’s wings. But, it sure isn’t hurting him that Burakovsky, a possession monster, is now skating with him.
- Zach Sanford has been fine but I wonder if more ice time in Hershey would be better for his development.
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
- GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.
Headline photo: Justin K. Aller
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