Not as bad as you thought: Numbers for the morning after

November 2, 2016 10:23 am

Last night the Washington Capitals eked out a 3-2 win over the Winnipeg Jets on the back of a last-minute (literally) Jay Beagle goal. Outshot 45 to 27, it felt like the Caps were increasingly under siege as the game progressed. And indeed they did forfeit a 2-goal lead, for the third time this season.

But the underlying numbers could’ve been worse. Here is the shot attempt chart at five on five (unadjusted.)

When looking at even strength shot attempts, the Caps were outdone by a more tolerable margin of 48 to 39. The tally was 51 to 40 if you include four-on-four. Let’s take a look at some of the battles within the game.

The Jets blocked 13 shot attempts, while the Caps only blocked five. Alex Ovechkin also missed six shots. The Caps have not been active when it comes to blocking shots so far, slotting in the bottom-five in the league in shots blocked.
The Caps’ line of Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus “literally Gretzky” Johansson, and Tom Wilson saw more than 60 percent of their starts in the offensive zone. They also had favorable results, playing a part in all three goals and coming out a plus-five in shot-attempts over nine minutes of five-on-five ice time. This line carried the team last night, offensively.
Speaking of Mojo, he scored another goal and is now seventh in the league in scoring through nine games with 11 points. He’s scored these all from 17 feet or closer, and has the fourth closest average shot distance on the Caps. He is also a 58 percent possession player at five-on-five. Here’s to that shiny new three-year deal, Marcus.
Dustin Byfuglien mostly skated against Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen, and he beat them handily. The Jets out-attempted Alzner 13 to three with Big Buff on the ice, and had Niskanen by a margin of 13 to four.
Shot attempts make the Caps look a bit better, but scoring chances don’t. The Caps allowed 10 scoring chances against at even strength in the third period, and 21 overall. They only generated 12 of their own. The shot chart shows the Caps allowing nine five-on-five shots from the slot, while taking seven of their own.
Braden Holtby was indeed sharp, with a .956 save percent. So far he’s rocking a .944 five-on-five save percentage, and is seventh for the league in the goals saved above average stat. Holtby isn’t at the top in any one stat, but he is above average in all of them with no obvious weakness so far.