TJ Oshie: 2015-16 Season Review

TJ Oshie came to DC and gave the Caps exactly what they wanted when they acquired him: a top-six forward. Even the most skeptical observer would be hard pressed to be unsatisfied with Oshie’s 2015-16 season, unless of course that observer had the irrational expectation that Oshie was magically going to become a 30-goal scorer when he arrived in DC.

By the Numbers

80	games played
18.9	time on ice per game
26	goals
25	assists
52.2	5v5 shot-attempt percentage
62.8	5v5 goal percentage

Visualization by Hockeyviz

About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows various metrics for the player over the course of the 2015-16 season. A short description of each chart:

Most common teammates during 5v5
Ice time per game, split up by game state
5v5 adjusted shot attempts by the team (black) and opponents (red)
5v5 adjusted shooting percentage on goal by the team (black) and opponents (red)
Individual scoring events by the player

Pat’s Take

While there’s no definitive, objective definition of what a top-six forward is in the NHL, there are some methods, both with stats and the eye-test, that can help give an idea of where a player should be slotted in an NHL lineup. One way to do this is to look at certain stats and see what percentile the player falls in. It’s a slightly crude method, but the thinking is that any player that falls in the top 50% in a category ranks among top-six forwards, while any below in the bottom 50% ranks as a bottom-six forward. Of course, there are exceptions, multiple stats need to be considered, and context is always key. With that in mind, here’s where Oshie ranked this past season in a few key categories among forwards who played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5:

Points per 60: 1.68, 66th percentile
Goals per 60: 0.65, 58th percentile
Primary assists per 60: 1.03, 73rd percentile
Shot attempts per 60: 12.28, 61st percentile
PP time on ice: 239:13, 91st percentile

Oshie comfortably performs at a top-six level. This is what he was brought in to do and therefore, regardless of what any of the three assets dealt to St. Louis end up doing, the trade for Oshie was a success for the Caps.

Playoff Oshie also proved himself to be an integral part of the Caps. Lack of playoff production was one of the knocks on Oshie during his time in St. Louis, but Oshie’s performance during his first playoffs in DC was a rousing individual success and helped show why one should be wary of making sweeping conclusions about a player based off performance in a small sample of playoff games. Having posted nine points in 30 playoff games coming into this season, Oshie silenced all the critics about his ability to perform in the playoffs by posting 10 points in 12 games this spring for the Caps.

Having not watched Oshie with much regularity before this season, my impression of him was he was a talented top-six forward who had an edge to his game. Much like music fans might fail to understand how edgy Pearl Jam’s Vitalogy is if they only know a radio hit such as “Betterman,” I severely underestimated the edge with which Oshie plays the game of hockey. I’m going to go all subjective eye-test on you and say Oshie is one of the most relentless puck pursuers I’ve ever seen. His effort and will on the forecheck, ability to win one-on-one (or two) battles, and pursuit of loose pucks is unparalleled on this Caps team and rivaled by hardly anyone around the league. If the Caps are in a battle for a loose puck, Oshie is the guy I want going after it. Below is an example of Oshie’s complete unwillingness to ever give up on a play. Watch him gather in the puck off of the blocked shot and chip it with one hand to Backstrom and he’s falling to the ice. Unreal. Textbook Osh.

Tackleberry Jerbang on RMNB

Playoff. Hat. Trick. Have you ever loved someone more? You have not. My recap is unbridled joy.
Oshie visited Frederick and didn’t even stop by Roy Rogers. wth.
If you understand the butt-slash ritual, please email us and explain.

New pregame ritual? #CapsRoomies https://t.co/VueeMTiYOR

— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) May 2, 2016

And if you’ve had any kinky dreams that start like this, email us about that too.

Did you know that Oshie played with Ovechkin’s stick this season? Ian did, because Ian is a gear freak.
When Oshie left St. Louis, he left behind superfan Libby Liu, but their reunion was even sweeter for the distance.

Mandatory shootout coverage. And again. And yet again. Damn, he’s not bad at this.
You would not believe all the cranky comments and tweets we got about our story concerning this spat between Oshie and Crosby.