Photo: Justin K Aller

The Caps have their first must-win game of the season on Saturday night against the Penguins. Down 3-1, the Caps have to win three straight against one of the best teams in the league (granted, the Caps are also in that group) or else their season will be over.

If this series hasn’t driven home the point that the margin for error in the playoffs is razor-thin and sometimes a few bad bounces (like a goal off a player’s back, for crying out loud) can make a world of difference, nothing will. Have the Caps looked dominant? Absolutely not. But have they more than held their own and are down 3-1 in part because hockey can be cruel and unjust? Oh yes.

Here’s a look at the score-adjusted, 5-on-5 numbers for the Caps and Pens through four games.

What the deuce, guys?

Sure, I hear those of you saying “stats don’t tell the whole story.” But they certainly tell enough of the story to say this: a team that has 52.1 percent of the shot attempts, as well as an advantage in scoring chances and shots on goal, but is outscored 11-7 at 5-on-5 is the victim, to some extent, of bad luck.

This doesn’t mean the Caps should be winning the series or that the Penguin are inferior and only winning because of luck. But it does show that the Caps have done a lot right in this series.

The Caps have played well but trail 3-1. Both of these things can be true at the same time.

Let’s take a look at the matchups, courtesy of Muneeb.

https://twitter.com/muneebalamcu/status/728131221465620482

Disclaimer: The Caps rapid-fire, pew-pew-pew effort in Game Three skews these numbers a bit, since it’s only a four game sample. But, you can also check out the numbers with Game Three removed.

• The narrative that Matt Cullen is playing good hockey this series doesn’t hold up.  He’s a minus-39 in 5-on-5 shot attempts. He’s gotten destroyed, especially by the Caps first and third lines.
• The Caps second line hasn’t been good enough. Heading into Game Five, it appears that Barry Trotz has rightfully switched up the lines. Hopefully he can get more from his top-six.
• Trotz has talked about getting away from the power vs power of his top line vs the Pens. If he sticks with the Niskanen/Alzner duo against the Sidney Crosby line, hopefully the shakeup in the forward matchup will help the Caps top defensive pair have better possession numbers. You can only hold down a player like Crosby for so long. Crosby having such good possession numbers against the pair he’s playing against the most only increases the chances of his name being on the score sheet often, sooner rather than later.
• How much faith do you have that putting Mike Richards between Daniel Winnik and Tom Wilson will solve the issues that line has had? Put me down for “not much.”

There’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Caps chances of getting back in this series. They have not played badly and poor luck has definitely played a part in them looking at a 3-1 series deficit.