On Monday, we published a smart and layered discussion by Myan Tran about Tom Wilson‘s development. That article comes after months of discussion among the RMNB staff on the same topic. That article and those discussions all seemed to revolve around the idea of a bust, a delightfully subjective and nebulous term that is also a function of expectations that vary based on whom you ask.
In a beautifully complex world of fractal mathematics and ASOIAF conspiracy theories, a yes/no debate about a divisive player is excessively stupid. The conversation quickly wanders off topic and into a battlefield. GIFs are deployed like explosive ordnance. Proxy wars are waged by strawmen.
But I come to you from above the fray to settle, once and for all, the Tom Wilson bust debate.
The problem of settling this debate is perspective. We’ve all got different perspectives. Some of us weigh Wilson against the expectations of his draft position, others in comparison to his peers among full-time NHL players. Some mark success based on games played, others by relative possession or by pure point production.
Let’s take it point by point. In each of these matters, there are only two possibilities: bust or not a bust.
As a Human
Tom Wilson is a young, attractive, healthy human being with a positive mental outlook. These are his abs.
CONCLUSION: NOT A BUST
Financially
Tom Wilson earns $830k in salary per year. Although he might be taxed aggressively, he is still the One Percent. And he’s still got better abs than the other 99.
CONCLUSION: NOT A BUST
Draft
Tom Wilson was drafted 16th overall in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Only 15 people were drafted above him, whereas literally billions of humans were not drafted at all.
CONCLUSION: NOT A BUST
Games Played
Tom Wilson has played 227 games. Only around 40 percent of high draft picks play more than 100 games. Tom Wilson is exceptional in this regard, in addition to the abs and the money. That number again:
Though maybe it’s worth mentioning that few young forwards played as few minutes as Wilson despite playing in so many games, and of the few young forwards who played less, only Jared Boll remains in the league, and he’s pretty bad. But still…
CONCLUSION: NOT A BUST
Production
Tom Wilson has poor scoring numbers. Out of the 268 forwards who have played at least 2000 minutes since 2013, Wilson ranks 221st at points per 60 and 249th and goals per 60. He’s behind Brooks Laich in goal rate. Behind. Brooks. Laich.
Wilson’s first career goal, assisted by Alex Ovechkin
CONCLUSION: BUST
Possession
When your team is playing defense more when you’re on the ice — that’s what relative possession tells us. Like Myan said, Tom Wilson’s team has the puck 2.3 percent less when he’s on the ice, which isn’t so bad really. It’s still worse than 222 out of 268 forwards, but it’s not as a bad as, like, Steve Ott.
Not as a bad as Steve Ott is also what we said about Ovi’s 2014 plus-minus though.
CONCLUSION: BUST
Sandpaper Grit
Tom Wilson began his NHL career as a fighter, but he’s grown to become more of a pest than a puncher. For a while, he was excellent at enticing opponents into extra penalties, a tremendously valuable skill for a player on an elite power-play team. But that skill has waned as Wilson’s reputation has spread– rightly or wrongly.
CONCLUSION: ASK ME AGAIN AFTER THE PLAYOFFS
So, you see, it’s all a matter of perspective, and it all depends on where you start. This chart below is a Bayesian logic tree. For you to consider Tom Wilson a bust, you’d have to start way over at the right side of the chart. In every other context, he’s stupendous.
Compare Tom Wilson to any random person in the world, for example this guy, there’s a very good chance Tom Wilson looks like a success. I refer you again to the abs. Also the salary.
And if you compare Tom Wilson to comparable high draft picks, who are basically coin tosses to stick in this league, of course Wilson’s been a success.
But if you compare Wilson to other young, full-time NHL players, there’s not a lot of substance to get excited about. But that’s okay, because the most important word in that last sentence was young.
To that point, I was floored by this incisive comment on Facebook yesterday.
@peterhassett [applause] pic.twitter.com/HuQuoojgAi
— Good Tweet Pete 🌮 (@peterhassett) April 4, 2016
I think this person (whose name I redacted) is spot on. Wilson’s development was clearly hindered by his early promotion to the NHL and the clown show that was the 2013-14 Washington Capitals. Since then, Wilson has showed potential beyond those early returns, though the scars of those early days are still present in his game.
What matters now is what happens next. Kevin Klein at Japers Rink has been tracking subtle but encouraging trends for Wilson’s development. The playoffs will be a crucible for Wilson: revealing if those trends will last and, by extension, if Wilson himself will last. I hope so. Maybe then we can put this debate to bed.
Headline photo: Amanda Bowen
Share On