Photo: Amanda Bowen
The Caps have lost in regulation just 14 times through 68 games. They’ve had the Metro division wrapped up since the Carter administration (Jimmy, not Aaron or Nick) and are running away with the President’s Trophy. And yet, things aren’t going very well right now.
Four of those 14 regulation losses have come in the last 10 games, with an overtime loss giving the Caps five losses in their last 10 games. Since the John Scott Game break, the Caps score-adjusted shot attempt percentage is 49.9 percent, 17th best in the league. Braden Holtby’s 5v5 save percentage during that time sits at 91.3 percent, ranking 34th among the 44 NHL goalies who have played at least 300 minutes since the break.
Feel nauseous yet?
The good news is that this team is still a Stanley Cup contender. No matter what “yeah, but” or “well, actually” rebuttal someone may have to that statement, the fact remains that this team is winning more through 68 games than the majority of teams in NHL history. No, the team has not looked great for a while now. And yes, their results have outpaced their performance for quite some time. But, it’s important to keep perspective that all teams go through ebbs and flows during the grind of an 82-game season.
The Caps might lose in the first round of the playoffs. But they’re also among a small handful of teams that have a legitimate shot at winning it all. Troubling trends have arisen at a time in the season when you’d least like to see it, but this isn’t the end of the world.
We can’t have anyone freaking out. We gotta keep our composure. We’ve come too far. We’ve got too much to lose. Keep our composure.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
| Williams | 68 | 884.9 | 54.3 | 4.1 | 58.2 | 101.3 |
| Kuznetsov | 68 | 960.1 | 52.8 | 2.1 | 62.4 | 103.2 |
| Ovechkin | 66 | 1005.7 | 52.8 | 2.3 | 63.0 | 103.0 |
| Latta | 41 | 334.7 | 52.5 | 1.7 | 52.6 | 100.4 |
| Backstrom | 65 | 933.8 | 52.0 | 0.8 | 64.5 | 103.3 |
| Burakovsky | 65 | 763.5 | 51.5 | 0.0 | 55.2 | 101.8 |
| Richards | 25 | 238.3 | 51.3 | 1.35 | 40.0 | 98.1 |
| Oshie | 68 | 946.0 | 50.9 | -0.7 | 62.1 | 102.7 |
| Galiev | 19 | 149.5 | 50.7 | 0.6 | 55.6 | 101.9 |
| Beagle | 44 | 504.9 | 49.7 | -1.8 | 57.1 | 101.7 |
| Johansson | 60 | 776.0 | 49.7 | -1.9 | 59.3 | 102.2 |
| Chimera | 68 | 752.3 | 48.4 | -3.9 | 49.2 | 99.9 |
| Wilson | 68 | 763.7 | 47.2 | -5.3 | 51.7 | 101.1 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
| Orlov | 68 | 1004.3 | 54.0 | 3.9 | 59.8 | 102.6 |
| Schmidt | 60 | 986.6 | 51.7 | 1.6 | 58.5 | 101.7 |
| Niskanen | 68 | 1233.1 | 51.2 | -0.2 | 56.6 | 101.4 |
| Orpik | 28 | 474.4 | 51.0 | -0.8 | 53.1 | 99.9 |
| Chorney | 51 | 610.8 | 50.7 | -1.5 | 58.2 | 103.4 |
| Carlson | 47 | 813.5 | 49.9 | -1.7 | 56.1 | 101.1 |
| Alzner | 68 | 1174.9 | 49.5 | -2.9 | 55.7 | 101.5 |
Observations
- Daniel Winnik isn’t at the 100-minute threshold yet to make the chart. But through 6 games, he’s sporting an awesome yet unsustainable 66.4 shot attempt percentage, plus-19.8 relative shot attempt percentage. He’s looked great so far, and while the Caps won’t continue to tilt the ice this much while he’s on the ice, he’s clearly an asset to the bottom six. I’d be up for him getting regular time on the third line if Barry Trotz shakes up the lines.
- Mike Weber also hasn’t played enough minutes yet but he’s looked every bit as unimpressive as I expected. In six games, he’s posted 40.9-percent relative shot attempt percentage, minus-10.6 percent relative. It’s doubtful his numbers would stay this bad long-term, but there’s plenty of a track record here to support that Weber is not an adequate NHL defenseman. The more time he spends in the press box, the better off this team will be.
- Barry Trotz spoke about the rotation on the third pair among Weber, Nate Schmidt, and Taylor Chorney. Considering the team’s spot in the standings, it makes sense to get everyone reps at this time in the season. And while it may be a bit of coach speak, and Trotz hopefully knows there’s no competition between Schmidt and Weber, it’s still a little concerning when he says all three guys have played well and the decision on who to play is hard. If Trotz wants to rotate his bottom three defenders in and out of the lineup, and he considers Schmidt in that group, that’s understandable. But come playoff time, once the chips are down and the six best defenders play every night, playing Schmidt over Weber (and Chorney, too) should be an easy decision that doesn’t take a second of thought. Schmidt’s abilities and performance are closer to top four defenders such as Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner than they are to a guy like Weber.
- While there’s reason to be concerned about Holtby’s play, there’s also reason to believe that this is a bump in the road. His track record says he’s a much better goalie than he’s been over the last two months or so. Remember above when I said he ranks 34th among 44 qualifying goalies in 5v5 save percentage since the John Scott Game break? He’s ahead of some other really good goalies such as Cory Schneider, Roberto Luongo, and Petr Mrazek. So, it’s fair to be concerned. But remember to take a deep breath.
- Evgeny Kuznetsov continues to climb the ranks in shot attempt percentage. He’s up to second, checking in at 52.8 percent. The entire second line continues to hum along pretty well relative to the rest of the squad. Via Corsica, the trio has a plus-1.7 percent relative shot attempt percentage, 52.7 percent overall.
- In last week’s snapshot I showed a chart that indicated all three players on the top line have seen their shot attempt percentages on a steady decline. Their possession as a trio is now below 50 percent, with a 49.9 shot-attempt percentage. Maybe if the team was humming along, it would make sense to keep this line together. But a trio of Nick Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and TJ Oshie should have control of the play over the course of a season. If they aren’t, it’s time to look for a new combination. I’m far from the only person to have called for the 8-92-77 line to get put back together, and there’s really no reason not to at this point. I co-sign giving a look to the lines below. 8-92-77 work well together, and when Backstrom has been with Justin Williams this season, the Caps have owned the puck.
I've harped on it before, but I need to see 8-92-77/19-14 (likely w 65) in the T-6 again. Give it another look, BT! pic.twitter.com/u45QkfZuRg
— Japers' Rink (@JapersRink) March 7, 2016
- That third line (or is is the fourth line now) sure did work well for a bit when Marcus Johansson was placed at center, didn’t it? Jason Chimera and Tom Wilson are both capable of playing third-line minutes, but both of them on the third line just isn’t cutting it. #PAPtoDC is no longer a solution, and Trotz mixed up his bottom-six some Saturday night in San Jose, but it’s time to mix up these combos on a more permanent basis.
- On the other hand, Winnik, Jay Beagle, and Mike Richards have looked great together, but is keeping them together worth continuing to have a Chimera and Wilson duo dragging down the third line?
- Let us end this on a positive note, courtesy of Micah.
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
- GF%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
All numbers, unless otherwise cited or linked to, are from War on Ice.
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