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Just a Little Patience: Week 20 Snapshot

By Patrick Holden (@russianmachine) on March 6, 2016 | 0 Comment

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Photo: Amanda Bowen

It is March 6 and the Caps have 100 points. We are watching a remarkable season. It’s true that the team hasn’t looked as dominant in recent weeks, yet they continue to rack up points in the standings, going 7-3-0 in their last 10 games.

As concerning as some of these trends may be, here’s a snippet from the week 2 snapshot that feels relevant today:

There will be ups and downs so, as the team embarks on this long road, it’s best to try to keep an even keel.

Despite whatever concerns one might have, the Caps are still nearly lapping the field. All concerns should be within the context that this is a team with 100 points in early March, and while feeling a little anxious about how this all ends is understandable, it’s also okay to enjoy the here and now.

Take it slow. It’ll work itself out fine. All we need is just a little patience (with our 100-point team).

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Williams 65 843.5 54.0 3.5 58.1 101.4
Ovechkin 63 958.6 53.3 2.6 62.5 102.8
Kuznetsov 65 917.7 52.6 1.5 61.8 103.1
Backstrom 62 891.8 52.5 1.1 63.9 103.1
Latta 41 334.7 52.5 1.7 52.6 100.4
Richards 22 207.0 51.4 0.9 44.4 98.9
Oshie 65 905.9 51.3 -0.4 61.5 102.6
Burakovsky 62 725.9 51.2 -0.7 54.0 101.7
Johansson 57 739.8 50.7 -0.7 61.5 102.6
Galiev 19 149.5 50.7 0.6 55.6 101.9
Chimera 65 720.0 49.3 -2.9 51.8 100.4
Beagle 41 471.2 49.3 -2.8 57.1 101.8
Wilson 65 733.7 47.8 -4.9 53.6 101.6

Defense

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Orlov 65 951.0 54.7 4.5 60.3 102.6
Schmidt 58 959.0 52.1 1.9 57.8 101.4
Orpik 25 420.8 51.5 -1.1 53.3 99.8
Chorney 50 597.4 51.2 -0.8 58.2 103.1
Niskanen 65 1177.83 51.0 -1.0 57.5 101.7
Carlson 47 813.5 49.9 -1.7 56.1 101.1
Alzner 65 1121.1 49.1 -3.9 56.6 101.9

Observations

  • The Caps are still ranked 11th in score-adjusted shot attempt percentage at 51.6 percent. This number is solid but not outstanding and, as has been said here and by others around the Caps blogosphere, this isn’t as concerning for this team as it would be for a team with less talent, say for example the Carolina Hurricanes. In other words, the Caps at 51.6 percent are a lot more dangerous of a team than a team like Carolina would be.
  • JP touched on this topic earlier this week. “That’s pretty much where they’ve been for a while now, and it sure seems as if this is the team that the Capitals are — a squad whose results may well outpace their good-not-great underlying numbers, thanks to terrific special teams, finishing talent and (we’re reasonably sure) goaltending.” Word.
  • The Caps are getting a lot of praise around the league this season and there’s simply not enough time to give all of the credit where it’s due. One thing that might be getting overshadowed is just how good Andre Burakovsky has been this season. Twenty-four forwards aged 18-20 have played 250-plus minutes at 5v5 this season in the NHL. Burakovsky ranks fourth in points per 60, with 2.07. You might recognize the names of the three guys outpacing him: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Dylan Larkin.
  • Daniel Winnik hasn’t played enough minutes to make it in the chart yet, but early returns on the fourth line of him, Mike Richards, and Jay Beagle are darn good. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Winnik’s 70.7 percent shot-attempt percentage and plus-21.5 relative shot attempt percentage are going to come back down to earth a bit. A daring statement, I know.
  • Speaking of Richards, I wrote about him earlier this week and how valuable he’s been to the team’s penalty kill. Our friend Ben Lutz has previously made the argument that Richards is one of the best penalty killers of this era.
  • I’m just gonna leave this here: The first line’s rolling, 10-game shot attempt percentage (by individual player, not as a unit).
firstline oviice
  • I’d be remiss to not point out that Brooks Orpik is third in shot-attempt percentage among Caps defenders. (“Yeah, but only fifth in relative shot-attempt percentage,” whispered someone from a dark corner.)
  • Karl, can you hear me?
alzner10game
  • Mike Weber has played three games so far for the team. He’s looked about as I expected: slow at times, not the best puck handler, and physical. He’s posted a 49.3 shot-attempt percentage, minus-3.1 percent relative shot-attempt percentage so far. He should be eighth on the defensive depth chart when and if the blue line is fully healthy.

Glossary

  • GP. Games played.
  • TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
  • SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
  • GF%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.

All numbers, unless otherwise cited or linked to, are from War on Ice.

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