Prepare For Takeoff: Week 19 Snapshot

February 28, 2016 7:33 pm

Photo: Chris Gordon

The trade deadline comes Monday afternoon, but a lot of teams have already started loading up. As of the time of this post, the Caps have only made one minor move in adding depth defenseman Mike Weber. That could change, as John Carlson is on LTIR and Brooks Laich was placed on waivers, giving the team some salary cap flexibility, if they wish to use it.

I still think the best move would be to add a skill player to replace Tom Wilson on the third line. It’s not so much that Wilson isn’t capable of handling third line minutes, but look how much adding skill player Marcus Johansson has helped that line. Adding another top-six capable player would give the Caps depth that would prove helpful come playoff time.

Regardless of what they do at the deadline, the Caps are a legitimate contender. Their game has had some kinks in it lately, but they remain on a nearly historic pace this season and are one of a handful of teams that have a legitimate shot at winning four playoff rounds come springtime.

Trade deadline activity and rumors continue to swirl and we’re fast approaching the stretch run. Prepare for takeoff and hold onto your butts. Please make sure your trays are in an upright and locked position and your seat belts are securely fastened.

The numbers are current as of the end of Sunday’s game against Chicago.

Forwards

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	rel SA%	GF%	PDO
Williams	61	790.5	54.4	3.9	58.3	101.4
Ovechkin	59	904.4	53.4	2.8	64.9	103.5
Laich	60	501.7	52.9	1.6	39.3	96.7
Backstrom	58	836.2	52.8	1.5	67.3	103.9
Kuznetsov	61	862.0	52.8	1.7	61.6	103.0
Latta	41	334.7	52.5	1.7	52.6	100.4
Galiev	18	143.3	51.6	1.3	55.6	101.7
Burakovsky	58	672.2	51.5	-0.3	53.3	101.5
Oshie	61	852.7	51.5	-0.2	63.8	103.0
Johansson	53	694.9	51.1	-0.3	62.8	103.0
Chimera	61	680.7	49.7	-2.5	52.8	100.7
Richards	18	166.2	49.5	-1.5	33.3	97.8
Wilson	61	693.4	47.9	-4.9	54.7	102.0
Beagle	37	433.6	47.5	-5.3	55.6	102.0

Defense

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	rel SA%	GF%	PDO
Orlov	61	881.0	55.1	5.0	62.5	103.3
Schmidt	56	931.1	52.4	2.1	58.1	101.5
Niskanen	61	1113.0	51.2	-0.7	57.7	101.8
Chorney	47	562.3	50.7	-1.3	58.8	103.7
Orpik	21	348.8	50.6	-3.0	54.1	100.1
Carlson	47	813.5	49.9	-1.7	56.1	101.1
Alzner	61	1055.0	49.0	-4.1	56.8	102.1

Observations

The Caps have slipped out of the top ten in score-adjusted shot attempt percentage, sitting 11th at 51.6 percent. Ebbs and flows happen throughout the course of the season, so this isn’t alarming at the moment. But, it’s worth noting that the 10-game rolling shot attempt percentage has taken a turn in the wrong direction recently.

Braden Holtby isn’t the favorite for the Vezina anymore. Please do not mistake this for me saying Holtby isn’t one of the best goalies in the league. He is. But he isn’t clearly the best goalie for the entirety of the 2015-16 season. He could still win it, but he’s going to have to pick up his play to do so. Here’s his rolling, 20-game 5v5 adjusted save percentage.

Sometimes nuance in positions gets lost and I think this happens sometimes when it comes to Brooks Laich. His contract is terrible and the Caps should get out from under it if possible. But, if they are stuck with the awful contract, he’s not a bad fourth line player and penalty killer. But yes, those skills can be had for much cheaper, and should be, if possible.
Evgeny Kuznetsov has been on the the most dynamic and productive players in the NHL this season. He turned a corner last season in the playoffs and those improvements carried over. I think really highly of him, but I think I remained more guarded in my Kuzy optimism than most (although much less guarded than grumpy Peter Hassett). While he still needs to sustain this level of player over multiple seasons to truly carve out his place among the game’s best, trends like his on-ice shot attempt percentage cause me to further let my guard down when it comes to the long-term outlook for the supremely-skilled Russian.

Speaking of Peter, if any of you talk to him, can you ask him how our Oshie bet is going?
Nate Schmidt is not going to continue to shoot below two percent at 5v5. He’s going to pot a goal or two soon and we all see it coming.
The Dmitry Orlov/Brooks Orpik pairing is something I’m fine seeing more of, and there’s a chance that we will with Carlson out long term. They’ve remained around 50 percent in possession, and Orlov appears even more comfortable joining the rush with a conservative guy like Orpik playing alongside him. Orlov’s skating and passing abilities really help cover for Orpik’s lack of ability in those areas.
Here’s a clip that shows Orlov’s great skating ability and offensive instincts. Watch as he gathers the puck on the far side and then crosses the puck to Orpik. He instantly takes off ice and receives a pass back in the neutral zone and if he’s the right wing.

Where does Mike Weber fit into the mix? He’s certainly going to get a sweater at least a few times between now and the end of the season. Unless the Caps somehow manage to secretly put Cody Franson on a pairing with Weber, he’s hoping he’s around only as an insurance plan.
In last week’s snapshot, I highlighted some work done by Matt Cane and a few people noted that they had not seen his work before but really enjoyed it. I assume that most snapshot readers are at least familiar with Micah McCurdy’s work, but just in case you aren’t, I highly recommend following him on Twitter and visiting his website, HockeyViz.
On his site, you’ll find some of the best and prettiest data visualizations and information around. You might also be interested to know that Micah currently has the Caps as a 99 percent lock to win the President’s Trophy. My favorite thing to check this time in the season is the Caps most likely first round playoff opponent

Micah also has a lot of great stuff on the individual player level. Poke around and feel free to leave any questions about the viz in the comments. His stuff is very smart and unique, and it makes the online hockey community smarter. If you’re able, you can also support his work with a donation.

Glossary

GP. Games played.
TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
GF%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.