The Capitals have played sixteen games since the beginning of December. In that time, the team added 24 standings points, making them one of the hottest teams in the league, but their 5v5 performance was actually in the league’s bottom third, between Philadelphia and Saturday night’s victors, the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Possession doesn’t tell the whole story. Braden Holtby has been spectacular, and Washington’s special teams have been brilliant. Still, there’s reason for alarm: the 5v5 Caps of the last month were better than the 2013-14 Oates!Caps by just 0.4 percent. Without a marked improvement in even-strength play, outcomes will begin to catch up with possession. The only good alternative is for the Caps to begin playing better.
In this week’s snapshot, the Caps have begun to play better.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
| Backstrom | 35 | 520.1 | 54.9 | 4.8 | 68.8 | 103.7 |
| Ovechkin | 37 | 512.1 | 54.2 | 4.0 | 66.0 | 103.9 |
| Williams | 38 | 486.2 | 53.9 | 3.4 | 57.1 | 100.8 |
| Laich | 38 | 325.0 | 53.6 | 2.6 | 38.9 | 96.8 |
| Oshie | 38 | 537.5 | 52.1 | 1.0 | 64.9 | 103.2 |
| Latta | 26 | 219.2 | 50.4 | 0.4 | 47.1 | 99.3 |
| Burakovsky | 35 | 383.8 | 51.8 | 0.1 | 53.9 | 101.2 |
| Johansson | 37 | 515.4 | 50.8 | -0.6 | 66.7 | 104.0 |
| Kuznetsov | 38 | 540.1 | 50.8 | -0.8 | 62.8 | 103.2 |
| Chimera | 38 | 417.5 | 48.3 | -4.1 | 50.0 | 100.4 |
| Beagle | 36 | 425.5 | 47.5 | -5.4 | 57.7 | 102.6 |
| Wilson | 38 | 418.1 | 45.9 | -7.0 | 56.7 | 103.1 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
| Orlov | 38 | 525.2 | 54.8 | 4.6 | 60.0 | 103.0 |
| Schmidt | 29 | 558.3 | 51.5 | 1.6 | 58.3 | 101.8 |
| Chorney | 29 | 351.1 | 52.2 | 1.4 | 65.6 | 106.9 |
| Niskanen | 38 | 707.0 | 51.1 | -0.5 | 63.6 | 103.4 |
| Alzner | 38 | 666.7 | 49.8 | -2.5 | 62.5 | 103.2 |
| Carlson | 34 | 610 | 49.4 | -2.6 | 53.7 | 100.2 |
| Orpik | 14 | 231.9 | 50.2 | -6.7 | 43.5 | 95.9 |
Observations
- You may notice a difference in authorial voice today. That’s because Pat is on vacation so I’m checking out the old digs for a hot minute. The only other difference you may notice is that I rounded off the second decimal point, because even I am not geeky enough to care about a hundredth of a shot-attempt percentage.
- “The Caps have begun to play better.” I swear I’m not trying to be contrary. I know the Caps lost two in a row for the first time this season, but let’s trace how we got to where we are now. Below are three timeline graphs showing score-adjusted shot-attempt percentages in five-game averages. There’s a graph for the top six, one for the bottom six, and one for the defense.
- I posit that the Capitals have hit rock bottom and are now on the upswing. It appears (and feels) to me that the inflection point was right around Christmas and those games against the Rangers, Canes, and Canadiens.
- Of course, it’s possible I’m entirely wrong and banking my entire hypothesis on just two strong back-to-back games (60 percent adjusted possession) against last year’s lottery team, the Buffalo Sabres. I sure hope not.
- Evgeny Kuznetsov (50.8 shot-attempt percentage, minus-0.8 percent relative possession) has never been known as a good possession player. Even in his breakout last spring and this fall, Kuznetsov’s success was limited to the offensive zone, which isn’t a bad place to have success if you can get it. Still, that incompleteness was my biggest objection to keeping Kuznetsov at first-line center when Nick Backstrom became ready in mid-October. But at that time, both the first and second lines were playing wonderfully. This is no longer the case. If a trio of T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Alex Ovechkin can get it done on the top line, I’ve no doubt that Marcus Johansson, Nick Backstrom, and Justin Williams can be not merely a shutdown second line, but a scoring one as well. I guess all I’m really saying is that it’s time to experiment.
- Random factoid: Of the seven goals scored against Buffalo on the 30th, Kuznetsov was on the ice for six of them. He leads a charmed life.
- What does Jay Beagle‘s injury mean for the bottom six? In non-snapshot concerns which have a surprisingly meager influence on goals and wins, it probably means some more lost faceoffs for the Caps. In the larger scope, I think we’ll learn a lot about this team’s forward depth. Michael Latta, long deserving, may finally get an extended audition at his destined 3C position (provided Zach Sill makes a timely exit from the NHL roster). Latta, by the way, enjoys the worst 5v5 goaltending among bottom-six forwards (90.4 percent) and Beagle the best (95.1 percent).
- I wonder what the Beagle injury will mean for his regular wings, Tom Wilson (team-worst minus-7.0 relative shot-attempt percentage) and Jason Chimera (minus-4.1 relative shot-attempt percentage). Those three played together in 11 of the 14 games in December. I’m strained to think Wilson and Chimera will remain one another’s wings on the third line. Here’s a comprehensive, exhaustive list of every player who has a higher shot-attempt differential when playing with either Wilson or Chimera: none. The team would be better served by those players in a fourth-line role, with fewer 5v5 minutes, easier competition, and more penalty-killing responsibility (where Wilson and Chimera are really pretty good).
- It was not a great week for Dmitry Orlov. Though he still leads the defense in shot-attempt differential (54.8 percent SA), Orlov got victimized on the percentages, seeing 2.5 percentage points drop off his PDO, much of that in Carolina’s deflating loss on New Years Eve. Add to that two penalties and an unflattering look on the plus/minus scale, and I begin to wonder what the Caps make of their defense right now. Further…
- Taylor Chorney played 10:32 in Saturday’s shootout loss. His partner, call-up Aaron Ness, played 8:49. To me, that’s a sign of a coach who does not love his defensive personnel options. And then…
- Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner are stretched thin. They’ve arguably been the top pairing all season long, but it’s become even more pronounced with Carlson and Orpik out. Niskanen hopped over 30 minutes last night in Columbus (partially due to his role as PPQB), and I think that might be beyond his optimum usage. We often see diminishing returns for overused players (cf. Erik Karlsson), and I believe this is true for Niskanen. John Carlson is expected to return from injury next week, which should be stabilizing for the blue line.
- A final note, and I hope you saw this coming, T.J. Oshie rules. He’s on pace to fire 200 shots on goal this season, which would be his career best. He’s also on pace to sc0re 30 goals, which would also be his career best. I suspect in the coming weeks he’ll get some more chances on the power play, where he’s dangerous in that center position. He’ll need those high-percentage chances if he’s to hit the 30 mark.
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
- Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
All numbers, unless otherwise cited or linked to, are from War on Ice.
Share On