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The Past Can’t Be Changed: Week 10 Snapshot

By Patrick Holden

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December 27, 2015 2:16 pm

Marcus+Johansson+Evgeny+Kuznetsov+Montreal+IkPj5W9MH3Al

Photo: Maddie Meyer

Welcome to the final snapshot of 2015.

To note that Jason Chimera‘s 13.3 percent shooting percentage isn’t likely to last does not take anything away from what the Ice Cheetah has done this season. Pointing this out doesn’t subtract any of the 10 goals he has. The same goes for the Caps as a team. Mentioning that their possession game has been slipping doesn’t take away any of their wins. It doesn’t cost them any points in the standings or make their winning streak any less enjoyable. Instead, the point is that the winning is unlikely to continue with the possession numbers they’ve posted lately.

Truth be told, I think the Caps’ possession will bounce back, and the win on Saturday against Montreal showed signs of that. To go through a dip that is below the team’s talent level, but have the goaltending, special teams, and some luck help rack up the wins isn’t a bad place to be.

The Caps have won a lot of games recently in which they were outplayed. I think it’s unlikely the Caps will be outplayed as much moving forward.

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Backstrom 31 461.1 55.19 5.83 66.67 103.33
Ovechkin 33 512.11 53.81 4.03 65.82 103.90
Laich 34 287.38 53.51 3.01 35.29 95.94
Williams 34 437.5 53.26 3.09 62.16 102.70
Oshie 34 478.13 52.34 1.94 64.71 103.01
Burakovsky 31 335.45 50.42 -1.14 47.62 99.59
Latta 23 189.6 50.41 0.83 47.06 98.87
Johansson 33 457.23 50.36 -0.53 67.74 104.61
Kuznetsov 34 477.97 49.29 -2.41 66.67 104.53
Chimera 34 374.12 47.77 -4.20 48.15 100.01
Beagle 34 408.28 47.41 -4.76 56 102.18
Wilson 34 371.24 45.58 -6.91 53.85 102.30

Defense

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Orlov 34 449.29 54.77 5.06 65.71 105.51
Schmidt 29 477.75 51.39 2.36 59.38 102.16
Chorney 25 306.14 51.09 0.7 66.67 108.91
Niskanen 34 625.02 50.55 -0.72 57.89 101.75
Orpik 14 231.89 50.18 -6.65 43.48 95.85
Alzner 34 588.62 49.89 -1.72 60 102.19
Calrson 34 610 49.42 -2.58 53.66 100.21

Observations

  • The Caps’ score-adjusted shot attempt percentage currently sits at 51 percent. With an elite goalie and excellent special teams, they can win plenty of games if they steady the ship at 51 percent. But I still want more from this team.
  • The PDO sits at 102.1, with a team shooting percentage of 8.7 percent and a save percentage of 93.4. Braden Holtby likely makes this team more of a 101-ish PDO team than 100, but there’s likely a PDO drop ahead. Hopefully the special teams can stay hot and the possession can improve in order to mitigate said PDO drop.
  • One theme we’ve touched on dating back to last season is shot generation from the Caps’ forwards. Last season, it was Alex Ovechkin followed by a lot of average and below average forwards in regards to generating shot attempts. This season started off better but isn’t ideal at the moment. Ovechkin is first among all NHL forwards, but there’s a huge drop-off after that.
  • Justin Williams is second on the team, ranking 90th in individual shot attempts. If you consider the NHL has 90 top-line forwards (30 times 3), the Caps have the top guy in generating shot attempts and only one other player who shoots at a top-line rate, and he’s barely clinging to the last spot.
  • The Caps had 5 forwards generating shots at a top-six clip (top 180), but two of them are bottom-six forwards Chimera and Andre Burakovsky. Three of the Caps’ top-six forwards produce individual shot attempts at a bottom-six rate.
  • One important thing to note here is that each of the three top-six forwards who don’t shoot a lot all help to generate a lot of team shot attempts off of passes. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nick Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson lead the team in terms of passes that lead directly to a shot attempt.

  • That vizualization is courtesy of Sean Tierney, who does a lot of similar worthwhile stuff on Twitter dot com. The viz is using data compiled by Ryan Stimson‘s passing project. The Caps games, as far as I know, are all tracked by Jesse Severe. Very cool stuff and that’s only scratching the surface of the data tracked by the project.
  • TJ Oshie hasn’t scored in two games which means I didn’t get a message from Peter this morning with a graph showing Oshie’s goal pace.
  • The Caps need a shakeup in the top-six, primarily because the second line is getting absolutely crushed on a regular basis. A line of Kuznetsov, Johansson, and Williams has too much talent to own only 44.36 percent of the shot attempts. Something doesn’t work here and it needs to be changed before their 107.3 PDO regresses.
  • What do you guys make of Michael Latta? Peter has long said he thinks Latta could become a solid 3C and I’m inclined to agree. His possession is good this season and I think he has better hands than your typical 4C. Here’s his HERO chart:
lattahero
  • For as disappointing as Burakovsky has been this season, he’s above 50 percent possession, is fourth among the regular forwards in passes/60 that lead to a shot attempts, and is fourth in shot attempts/60. He’s been far less dynamic this season, but it’s not as if he’s totally overwhelmed. Some people have mentioned they’d like to see Burakovsky in Hershey. I understand the thinking but I’m not there yet. Yes, it would be nice to see him get more ice time. But, as of right now, he is one of the 12 best forwards under contract for this team. Considering this team is aiming for the Cup this season, they should dress their 12 best forwards, development be damned.
  • I’m not going to argue that Brooks Laich has been the same player since his groin injury a few years back or that he’s worth his contract. But I’ll take a bottom-six player that is a positive relative possession player by over three percent and kills penalties any day of the week.
  • This is the second consecutive week a defenseman has been welcomed to the wrong side of 50-percent possession. Last week it was John Carlson and this week it’s Karl Alzner. This isn’t the end of the world, but their shot-attempt percentages have been moving in the wrong direction for a while now in order to get below 50 percent. If they can bottom out here, it’s fine enough to have your lowest possession defensemen sit ~50 percent.
  • Raise your hand if you think Taylor Chorney can maintain a PDO of 108.91. If you had told me at the start of the season, Chorney was going to play in 25 games by this point, I would have been worried. But the guy has acquitted himself well. He’s a suitable seventh defenseman who can spend time on a third pair and hold his own.
  • But some of this credit has to go to Dimitri Orlov. Let us not take for granted that this guy missed an entire season of hockey and has hopped back in to anchor the third pairing without missing a beat. Orlov’s 1.47 points/60 ranks second among all NHL defensemen with 300-plus minutes played at 5v5 this season. The only player he trails is 2015-16 Norris trophy winner Erik Karlsson.

Glossary

  • GP. Games played.
  • TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
  • SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
  • Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.

All numbers, unless otherwise cited or linked to, are from War on Ice.