Asses Not Inside Heads: Week 9 Snapshot

December 20, 2015 1:32 pm

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Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Friday night’s thrilling comeback win over Tampa Bay propelled the Caps into first place in the NHL standings. Despite the 5v5 process still not being as sound as it was in the first month of the season, the Caps continue to rack up wins at a breakneck pace. There are reasons for that, some of which we’ve touched on in recent snapshot and some of which we’ll get into below.

But first, let’s get this out of the way: This team is fun.

One of the aims of the snapshot is to offer a sober analysis of what the underlying numbers say and where the team is headed. The concerns noted in recent snapshots still stand. But, to go off the snapshot script a bit, this team is simply fun to watch. The skill level in the top-six is dazzling, and rarely does a game go by without some sort of highlight-reel pass or goal.

To think, five years ago this team was mired in a slump, they adopted a boring and crippling trap system, and Bruce Boudreau was cussing about asses being inside of heads. While there are reasons to keep the current optimism guarded, it’s also fun to note how relatively awesome things are right now.

Let’s do the numbers, current as of Sunday before the game against the Rangers.

Forwards

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	rel SA%	GF%	PDO
Backstrom	28	417.99	56.78	7.48	67.86	103.18
Ovechkin	30	465.50	54.96	5.10	66.67	103.93
Williams	31	397.69	53.95	3.46	60.61	102.04
Laich	31	263.61	53.57	2.57	33.33	95.07
Oshie	31	439.78	53.15	2.51	65.82	103.07
Johansson	30	412.89	51.13	-0.04	69.23	104.54
Latta	20	164.61	50.96	0.94	50	99.85
Burakovsky	28	307.99	50.35	-1.88	47.37	99.63
Kuznetsov	31	431.58	49.48	-2.73	66.52	103.79
Beagle	31	373.11	46.93	-5.99	50	100.82
Chimera	31	340.92	46.85	-5.95	41.67	98.49
Wilson	31	332.71	45.42	-7.63	45	99.70

Defense

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	rel SA%	GF%	PDO
Orlov	31	404.57	55.56	5.51	63.33	103.96
Schmidt	26	433.43	52.14	3.12	59.26	101.92
Chorney	22	263.17	51.81	0.95	60	104.89
Niskanen	31	569.67	50.96	-0.74	58.33	101.97
Alzner	31	535.48	50.24	-1.84	60.61	102.40
Orpik	14	231.89	50.18	-6.65	43.48	95.85
Calrson	31	558.76	49.49	-3.16	52.78	99.98

Observations

The Caps are now out of the top 10 in puck possession, sitting 11th in score-adjusted shot-attempt percentage with 51.4 percent. Being a 51.4 percent team is fine enough when both your goalie and power play are elite. But the possession continues to slide from the 54-ish percent this team was around for a while earlier on. If they can stabilize where they are now, or improve, all will be good. If they continue to be out-possessed most nights, hockey might not be as fun for some stretches of games. But, that’s not to say the Caps’ success is a total mirage. Possession stats are part of a conversation, not the end of it.
One reason the success is not a mirage is Braden Holtby. We’ve talked about him a lot in recent snapshots. The Caps will be able to curtail some of the PDO regression likely coming because their goalie is elite.
Another reason is special teams. If a team can count on a power-play goal or two per night and have a good penalty kill, some 5v5 deficiencies can be covered up. The win Friday against the Lightning is an example of this. The Caps had just 37.5 percent of the shot attempts when weighted for score effects, but they were three-for-four on the power play and killed all three shorthanded situations. These numbers are exaggerated; 37.5-percent possession over the long haul would be a disaster, and the special team index (PP percentage + PK percentage) won’t run at 175 percent for long, but a team can get away with some 5v5 struggles if their special teams play is spectacular. The Caps special teams were spectacular against the Lightning.
The Caps have a plus-eight penalty differential on the season. When you have a power play that can realistically hum along at ~25 percent and a solid penalty kill, special teams can win you some hockey games that you may have otherwise lost.
The Caps have a plus-11 goal differential on special teams this season. No other team is above plus-7.
But even so, it’d be nice if the Caps righted the 5v5 ship soon. Over the past 30 days, they are a 48.1 percent possession team. This puts them in the neighborhood of teams like Vancouver and Philadelphia. An elite goalie and power play can help you make up some ground, but how much?
The Caps’ scoring chances over the past month doesn’t tell much of a different story, so there’s no shot quality argument to make in their defense. They own 49.1 percent of the total scoring chances, as defined by War on Ice. There are reasons we prefer shot attempts to scoring chances over the long haul anyways. Some of them are: a bigger sample size, more repeatable at the team level, and shot quality generally becomes a moot point over large samples.
What the heck do you guys think is going on with Andre Burakovsky? Sure, sure, sophomore slump and all that. But is that a Thing or is it just something we say? And if it is a Thing, what does it mean? Why is Burakovsky a shell of the player we saw last season? His on-ice shot attempt and scoring chance percentages are both way down this season.

One positive is that his shot attempts/60 are up a tick, from 12.71 last season to 13.33 this season
One thing to keep in mind is that development is often non-linear. Just because he’s struggling doesn’t mean Burakovsky has “taken a step back” or that his development is botched or even that he won’t become the player we all think he has the potential to be. Some people have called for him to be sent down. I’m not there yet. He’s still one of the 12 best forwards on a team that is very much in “win now” mode. That’s a guy you keep on your team.
One thing I’ve chatted with some of you about recently is how much Brooks Orpik‘s injury has impacted the Caps’ possession. Muneeb wrote about this recently and I agree with him that the Orpik injury isn’t likely a big factor in the recent possession struggles. This is not a shot against Orpik. Before his injury, the Caps were a 54.5-percent possession team. Since the injury, the Caps have been a 49.1 percent team. No single player in the NHL, not even Nick Backstrom, moves the needle that much. Even for those who stand steadfast in saying this team misses Orpik, there’s a whole lot more going on than simply missing any one player.
Let’s talk about some of the awesome stuff such as TJ Oshie. Peter wants me to show you guys this graph. Just remember Peter is ~~an intolerable, borderline insufferable human~~ a person I really respect and I’ve learned a lot from.

Speaking of offseason additions, I’m running out of words to describe Justin Williams. Has anyone used amazeballs yet to describe him? I never use that word, but I feel like I’ve said everything else there is to say. I know some of you think we’re too hard on Jay Beagle ’round here (I like the player but disagree with his usage), but I would think even the most avid Beagle supporters know he’s not close to the player Williams is. So, isn’t it curious that their TOI per game is so similar. At 5v5, Williams skates 12.83 minutes per game, while Beagle plays 12.04.

Glossary

GP. Games played.
TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.