The Capitals’ new young gun.

Understanding 5v5 hockey using shot attempts starts with a number: 50 percent. That is even possession– one for the other team, one for your team, repeat. If your team is above 50 percent, you’ve either denied your opponent some attempts or you’ve managed to create a few extra of your own. Being “in the black,” with a possession number above 50 percent is a sign of an above-average team.

The Capitals are above 50 percent. They’re a 52-percent team– or just about. But I’m not so sure they’re truly or significantly above average. And it’s Buffalo’s fault, dammit.

If you ignore the Sabres (using some sloppy, back-of-napkin math), then the league’s average isn’t 50 percent– it’s more like 50.4 percent. And over on Puckon.net, the median teams have around 51.2-percent score-adjusted possession. It’s like grade inflation for hockey– making the Caps look just a bit better than they are because they, just like everyone else, got to beat up on the worst possession team of the modern era (and maybe longer; I’d love to know the 74-75 Caps’ shot-attempt differential.)

That has nothing to do with what’s in this week’s snapshot, but I thought it was curious.

What’s actually in this week’s snapshot: the Caps have really good young players, but are they fast enough for the Islanders?

Previous snapshots: week 1, week 2, week 3, week 4, week 5, week 6, week 7, week 8, week 9, week 10, week 11, week 12, week 13, week 14, week 15, week 16, week 17, week 18, week 19, week 20, week 21, week 22, week 23

But first, a little Young Team?

These are current as noon on Sunday, April 5. The sample is restricted to 5v5 hockey when the score is within one goal. There’s a glossary at bottom with an explanatory video.

Forwards

Defense

Observations

• After 80 games, the Capitals control 52 percent of the shot attempts after you adjust for score effects, according to Puckon.net. There’s a deceptive evenness of that number, so I’m going to break it down by month. This team has been way up and down.

• To tell it like a story, the Capitals started off as a true Cup contender, but the wins didn’t follow. The team settled in by November and began winning, but puck possession fell off after those first 10 games. Late December and January looked very strong, but the Caps swooned after the All-Star game until mid-March, which was somewhat lifted by some easier opponents.
• So who are the Capitals after all? Um. Well, they sorta look like a second-round playoff team, I guess– though maybe what I mentioned in the snapshot’s introduction is deluding us. And whether that projection makes you happy or sad is a personal matter. To me, this Capitals team is an inspiring improvement over last year’s Oates!Caps, a marked improvement over Hunter Hockey (the Caps had 49 possession in the final 20 games of 2012), and a negative improvement over the pre-trap Boudreau Capitals. But the past is tautologically the past; let’s discuss the future: potential playoff foes.
• The Penguins are a playoff bubble team, but if they can make the dance and bring their posse, I think they’ll surprise everyone. They’re absolutely top-heavy (even more so than last year’s Capitals), but they’re so damn good when their elites are healthy. Kris Letang pushes 56.3-percent possession, up from 51.6 when he’s off the ice. The Pens with Malkin and/or Crosby are also right around 56 percent– but drop below 50 percent when they’re both off the ice. Whether the team gets a wild card spot is up to luck– but if they show up, they could be deadly. Until MAF mafs, of course. And he will maf. Lord, will he ever maf.

Yesterday's results make the Islanders suddenly very likely to meet the Capitals in the first round. pic.twitter.com/x7QbB4uPde

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 6, 2015

• The Capitals appear to be a mortal freaking lock to play the New York Islanders, which I find upsetting. Within one week over the summer, the Islanders transformed themselves from an embarrassing team sporting some talented, young forwards into a speedy team with depth from the top line, through the blue line, and all the way to the backstop. Here’s how many score-adjusted shot attempts the Caps owned against the Islanders during 5v5 in games this season: 40.3, 55.1, 42.8, and 47.2. And yet, somehow the Caps managed to take at least a point from all of those games, though they won just once in #rego. Just so we’re clear: there will be no points for overtime losers after this weekend. I’m rooting for a shakeup in the standings.
• Okay, now onto the team we care about and their new young guns. I want to talk about Marcus Johansson in particular. With just 50.4-percent possession (SA%), Mojo doesn’t look like much in the snapshot, but that’s the beginning of analysis, not the end. While there are forums and Facebook threads dedicated to maligning Marcus, I think he’s maybe the Capitals’ most improved player this season. Let’s look at individual offense, where he’s increased his 5v5 shot attempts by 74 percent, from 6.9 to 11.9 attempts per 60 minutes. That is a massive change in a single year and an object lesson in how hockey players are not static. In addition to his increased shot volume, check out Johansson’s 5v5 shooting percentage, which hopped from an unlucky 2.8 percent to a damn lucky 13.3. And don’t forget his crucial role on the power play. It becomes clear to me that Johansson is Washington’s best case for secondary scoring, a big deal in the playoffs– if only he weren’t being held back by his linemates. Which brings me to…
• AHL forward Andre Burakovsky, who seems to be making his linemates better despite having like no experience whatsoever. Of every Caps forward who has spent more than 30 minutes with Burra during 5v5, only one has seen his team’s shot attempts go significantly down.

• Other than some bad chemistry with Jason Chimera, this rookie makes everyone’s life better. Check out Joel Ward, who sees 10.4 percent more shots belong to the Caps when with Andre. Is anyone behind the Caps bench curious what’s behind that huge jump and willing to dedicate a few shifts to learning more? I think Burakovsky’s eagerness and aptitude for offense (third highest individual shot-attempt rate during 5v5) is a big factor why. And yet, for some reason, Caps management has decided to task Burakovsky for development in Hershey, when actually he’s better than most of the forwards to whom they give a sweater every night. He’s basically an instant top-sixer on an entry-level contract. That’s gold in a lot of ways, but most importantly the way to winning your next game.
• Another young player who makes his team better, especially lately, is Tom Wilson. I’ve been wringing my hands and fanning myself with my kerchief over Tom’s role since the beginning of last season, and I’m finally getting over it. Since Wilson started taking regular shifts with Brooks Laich around the beginning of March (but not necessarily because of that), Wilson has suddenly looked multidimensional and dangerous during 5v5. He doesn’t just draw penalties (each of which, Muneeb Alam reminds us, is worth about a quarter of a goal as long as Wilson doesn’t retaliate), he also drives play into the offensive zone. That makes him an undervalued asset when he’s on the fourth line, where he shouldn’t be, or a solid middle-six player, which is where he freaking better be if Barry Trotz is serious about his development. Anyway, check out Wilson’s possession graph since the new year and then join me in hoping he’ll be alright after that puck he took to the dome on Sunday night.

• Tim Gleason has a reputation for being a big dumb bag of rocks in a sweater with half the speed, but so far in a Caps uniform he’s done quite well. We’ve all seen a few bad pinches here or there (and really, we don’t want or need Gleason pinching ever), but he’s in the black when playing next to Green– perhaps because Trotz gives that defensive pairing a bunch of offensive zone shifts (See Gleason’s 61.3 percent ZS%). It’s almost as if Trotz is completely unconcerned with inflating Mike Green‘s production with optimized zone starts because he knows the Caps can’t re-sign him. Le sigh.
• Back among the forwards, Barry Trotz has done the inevitable and split up Nick Backstrom, thereby resolving a 75-game controversy about the team’s second-line center by filling the spot with his first-line center. The short-term results were great, prompting this observation by team writer Mike Vogel:

Trotz put together 8-92-42 and 90-19-20 a week ago. Each produced three even-strength goals in four games since, as did 21-16-25 line. #Caps

— Mike Vogel (@VogsCaps) April 5, 2015

• I’m hoping the team’s decision makers aren’t fooled by randomness. I hope they notice that Alex Ovechkin has been outshot big time in three of the last five games and has been dragging team possession down. The sport, the team, and that player are too important to linger long on specious logic or insubstantial sentimentality. Activate Ovechkin long-term at 5v5, and the Caps will win games. Take it to #thebank.
• Final note: I probably won’t be able to attend the DC Hockey Analytics Conference this Saturday in Georgetown. My life is just too out of control right now to make it into the city on Saturday morning. I desperately encourage you to go and hear some of my favorite writers and thinkers discuss the game we like so much. While I won’t be there in person, I’m hoping I’ll be able to add something substantive to the greater analytics conversation very soon. A few somethings, really.

Glossary

• 5v5 Within 1. Our sample. The portions of games when each team has five skaters and the score is within one goal.
• GP. Games played.
• TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
• SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Also known as Fenwick. Above 50 percent is good.
• Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Above 50 percent is good.
• PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
• ZS%. Offensive zone start percentage. Excluding neutral-zone starts, the share of shifts that the player starts in the offensive zone, nearer to the opponent’s net.

Thanks to War On Ice for the stats.