Photo: Gerry Thomas
Okay, so I wasn’t expecting this. The Caps are good, which is what we thought, but they seem to be really good. Like really, really good. The Caps are outshooting the opposition, they’re limiting shots against, they’re getting dependable goaltending, and the goals are coming from all over the lineup. They’re a good hockey team again– that’s settled. The only question is this:
How good are they?
We just don’t know yet. The Caps have seven games under their belt, just 8.5 percent of the season. That little sample looks lovely, but who knows what the coming weeks will bring. And there are already things the Caps could do to be better. Starting with Alex Ovechkin.
Previous snapshots: week 1
Let’s do the numbers. These are current as of noon on Sunday, October 26th. The sample is restricted to 5v5 hockey when the score is close. That means the score is within one goal in the first two periods and tied in the third. There’s a glossary at bottom with an explanatory video.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Goal% | PDO | ZS% |
| Latta | 4 | 14.1 | 75.0 | 100 | 108.3 | 71.4 |
| Ovechkin | 7 | 73.2 | 62.2 | 50 | 96.4 | 53.9 |
| Burakovsky | 7 | 51.8 | 60 | 80 | 109.0 | 67.9 |
| Backstrom | 7 | 70.1 | 59.3 | 50 | 97.2 | 50.0 |
| Johansson | 7 | 47.2 | 47.9 | 75 | 106.3 | 66.7 |
| O’Brien | 7 | 28.9 | 56.8 | 100 | 111.1 | 81.3 |
| Fehr | 7 | 68.5 | 56.6 | 66.7 | 102.4 | 47.2 |
| Brouwer | 7 | 58.8 | 55.6 | 50 | 97.9 | 64.1 |
| Ward | 7 | 56.3 | 53.6 | 50 | 99.7 | 52.8 |
| Laich | 5 | 36.4 | 51.2 | 33.3 | 92.6 | 63.6 |
| Kuznetsov | 7 | 34.9 | 46.9 | n/a | 100.0 | 78.6 |
| Chimera | 7 | 53.4 | 46.8 | 33.3 | 96.1 | 55.3 |
| Brown | 3 | 15.5 | 36.4 | 100 | 114.3 | 72.7 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Goal% | PDO | ZS% |
| Green | 6 | 57.6 | 63.2 | 75 | 104.1 | 62.5 |
| Schmidt | 7 | 54.6 | 58.9 | 80 | 110.4 | 54.8 |
| Alzner | 7 | 70.3 | 54.7 | 33.3 | 96.0 | 53.7 |
| Orpik | 7 | 79.3 | 53.9 | 60 | 101.6 | 62.7 |
| Carlson | 7 | 67.6 | 53.3 | 50 | 99.7 | 57.6 |
| Niskanen | 7 | 79.6 | 51.9 | 50 | 99.5 | 59.5 |
Observations
- I hope you’re sitting down. Using score-adjusted fenwick, the Caps have 56.86 percent possession (i.e. they get that percentage of the total unblocked shot attempts). That’s second place in the league! Using basic shot-attempt percentage, they’re still 55.19 percent– fourth in the league. I see this possible meaning two things: A) small sample sizes are making the Caps look way better than they are, or B) the Caps really are way, way, way, way better than we thought they would be. Even the most optimistic of hockey pundits didn’t predict the Caps would be that dominant during even strength. We shall see which is true. We won’t know for weeks.
- Here’s another experiment in sample size. Marcus Johansson, whom I have repeatedly lambasted for not shooting enough, has doubled his shot output this season. He generated 5.4 unblocked shot attempts every 60 minutes last season; this year it’s 10.52. Can he keep it up? I’ve got no gosh darn idea. If he does, it’ll be a good reminder that hockey players are ever-changing and not nearly as static as we sometimes think.
- On the other hand is Alex Ovechkin. Ovi got famous by being the most prolific shooter of the current era– almost always winning the shots-on-goal race. But in his last three games, Ovi got respectively 2, 2, and 1 shots on goal. His unblocked shot-attempt rate is down from 17.35 last season to 13.75. What’s driving that? His team definitely has the puck more when he’s on the ice, so is he just pulling the trigger less? Let’s hope that is just a blip.
- Most hockey teams are somewhat top-heavy in puck possession, and the Caps are no exception. That table of forwards is ranked by on-ice shot-attempt percentage, and it almost mirrors the lines– with the notable exception of Michael Latta (who has done great in his paltry 14 minutes of the sample). The top lines look, in a word, amazing, and the dregs aren’t quite stellar yet. But let’s not think of puck possession simply as a way of measuring who’s good and who’s bad. The defense illustrates that well.
- You can see Mike Green and Nate Schmidt are killing it when it comes to outshooting, but it’s Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik who are getting all the minutes. Niskanen is doing a lot of special teams (and thus not in this sample), and Orpik is apparently getting the tough 5v5 minutes. And while the Orpik/Carlson is getting outplayed relative to the rest of the Caps defense, that doesn’t man they’re doing badly. Rather, it might just mean that they’re doing the hardest work.
- Please don’t consider that a reversal of my opinion of Orpik’s contract. It’s still hot garbage smothered in hot mayonnaise. Orpik has played 1.7 percent of that contract so far, and he’ll be pretty old by the end of it. But if the Caps can do something big right now, it’ll have been worth it.
- Should we be worried about the Jason Chimera? He and Joel Ward went in different directions (SA%) after breaking up last night. Ward’s fourth line was the team’s best, but Chimera struggled with Evgeny Kuznetsov, who still hasn’t proved that he can anchor a line. What will happen when that bottom six goes up against Vancouver tonight?
- When Tom Wilson comes back, who sits? I gotta think Liam O’Brien loses his sweater. O’Brien has been a pistol out there and he’s not hurting the team, but he has been dramatically sheltered. That would mean Tom Wilson would get eased in on the fourth line. Are you okay with that? With the newly fluid lines among forwards, it might not last long.
- I’ve got a lot more stuff I want to share, but it kinda deserves its own post. That’ll come this week. You’ll love it. Promise.
Glossary
- 5v5 Close. Our sample. The portions of games when each team has five skaters and the score is within one goal in the first two periods and tied during the third.
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Also known as Fenwick. Above 50 percent is good.
- Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice. Above 50 percent is good.
- PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
- ZS%. Offensive zone start percentage. Excluding neutral-zone starts, the share of shifts that the player starts in the offensive zone, nearer to the opponent’s net.
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