Photo: Bruce Bennett
This was the week the Capitals’ playoff hopes effectively died.
Sports Club Stats says the Caps have a 2.7% chance of making the postseason. To help you better understand the probability there, that’s the same as the chances I will NOT go to Chipotle today.
We should not be surprised by this. The Capitals were never good at even strength. In week one we said, “These numbers do not describe a good even-strength team at all.” Almost eighty games later, and that has not changed. The only teams who do worse than the Caps during 5v5 (which is how about 75% of their season has been played), are the following: the Avalanche, Oilers, Leafs, Sabres. That is poor company.
So while this season is a foregone conclusion, the Caps must now decide who they will become in the future: a bottom-five team or not.
These are the numbers as of noon on Sunday, April 6th, when the weather is beautiful but I’m spending all morning crunching numbers and making graphs. The sample is just 5-on-5 play while the score is close. That means within one goal in the first two periods and tied in the third. That way special teams, blowouts, and comebacks don’t color the data. Stats of note are highlighted in powderpuff pink and discussed below.
See previous snapshots: week 1, week 2, week 3, week 4, week 5, week 6, week 7, week 8, week 9, week 10, week 11, week 12, week 13, week 14, week 15, week 16, week 17, week 18, week 19, week 20, week 21, week 22, week 23, week 24
Player | Pos | GP | TOI | GF | GA | SA% | Sh% | Sv% | PDO | ZS% |
Aaron Volpatti | L | 41 | 205 | 3 | 5 | 39.5% | 4.3% | 95% | 99.3 | 52.6% |
Alex Ovechkin | L | 74 | 678.9 | 20 | 31 | 48.6% | 5.6% | 91.8% | 97.5 | 59.7% |
Brooks Laich | C | 51 | 397 | 12 | 13 | 46.5% | 7.1% | 93.3% | 100.4 | 51.6% |
Dustin Penner | R | 14 | 94.7 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.4% | 100% | 102.4 | 48.8% |
Eric Fehr | R | 69 | 557.1 | 18 | 23 | 49.7% | 6.7% | 91.8% | 98.4 | 45.8% |
Evgeny Kuznetsov | C | 13 | 105.7 | 4 | 6 | 38.9% | 11.1% | 90.2% | 101.3 | 50% |
Jason Chimera | L | 78 | 616.2 | 31 | 29 | 46.8% | 10.1% | 91.5% | 101.7 | 44.1% |
Jay Beagle | C | 58 | 371.9 | 4 | 10 | 46.7% | 2.7% | 94.1% | 96.8 | 50.5% |
Joel Ward | R | 78 | 598.7 | 30 | 26 | 48.3% | 10.2% | 91.7% | 102 | 45.3% |
Marcus Johansson | C | 77 | 648 | 20 | 33 | 48.2% | 6.7% | 90.5% | 97.2 | 52.6% |
Michael Latta | C | 17 | 67.6 | 3 | 4 | 48.1% | 10.3% | 88.2% | 98.6 | 48.5% |
Mikhail Grabovski | C | 54 | 478.7 | 21 | 14 | 49.9% | 8.4% | 94.4% | 102.8 | 51.3% |
Nicklas Backstrom | C | 78 | 698.5 | 23 | 34 | 48.3% | 6.5% | 91.3% | 97.8 | 56.4% |
Tom Wilson | R | 78 | 390.8 | 10 | 11 | 45% | 7% | 94% | 101 | 55.4% |
Troy Brouwer | R | 78 | 630 | 19 | 22 | 47.6% | 7% | 93.1% | 100.1 | 48.3% |
Player | Pos | GP | TOI | GF | GA | SA% | Sh% | Sv% | PDO | ZS% |
Nate Schmidt | D | 29 | 283.1 | 12 | 10 | 50.6% | 8.5% | 93.4% | 101.8 | 55.9% |
John Erskine | D | 37 | 336.7 | 13 | 15 | 45.1% | 8.4% | 91.7% | 100.1 | 47.7% |
John Carlson | D | 78 | 785.6 | 25 | 29 | 47% | 6.8% | 92.8% | 99.7 | 49.6% |
Karl Alzner | D | 74 | 736.8 | 23 | 25 | 47.2% | 6.7% | 93.4% | 100.1 | 50% |
Mike Green | D | 70 | 806.9 | 27 | 30 | 52% | 6.8% | 92.2% | 99 | 54.8% |
Connor Carrick | D | 30 | 256.4 | 6 | 10 | 43.5% | 5.5% | 93.3% | 98.8 | 47.2% |
Dmitry Orlov | D | 50 | 599 | 18 | 22 | 53.3% | 6.1% | 91.8% | 97.9 | 52.2% |
Jack Hillen | D | 13 | 116.3 | 2 | 6 | 38.7% | 5.4% | 92.3% | 97.7 | 50% |
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