Neil delivers Caps scoring chances through Nov 14, 2010 (Photo credit: Gerry Thomas)
Despite some terrible second period performances that made me want to use my new iPad as the world’s most expensive frisbee, I still managed to log the scoring chances for the week. I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.
The three of you that actually read these posts may notice a new format. Let me know if you think this is more helpful.
TOI = Time on ice
GF = Goals for
SCF = Scoring chances for
OffZS% = Offensive zone start percentage
Forwards
| Player | TOI (EV) | GF (EV) | SCF (EV) | OffZS% | TOI (PP) | GF (PP) | SCF (PP) |
| Ovechkin | 281.7 | 15 | 85 | 56.3% | 81.7 | 13 | 62 |
| Backstrom | 260.4 | 13 | 81 | 58.1% | 60.2 | 10 | 47 |
| Semin | 235.0 | 17 | 73 | 58.1% | 52.9 | 12 | 51 |
| Knuble | 235.3 | 6 | 64 | 59.8% | 40.7 | 4 | 20 |
| Laich | 204.8 | 12 | 62 | 56.2% | 51.8 | 9 | 43 |
| Fleischmann | 201.9 | 10 | 58 | 52.8% | 38.7 | 3 | 20 |
| Chimera | 203.4 | 8 | 47 | 49.1% | 6.5 | 1 | 2 |
| Fehr | 178.5 | 7 | 40 | 48.7% | 30.5 | 3 | 19 |
| Johansson | 90.0 | 2 | 21 | 59.4% | 2.7 | 0 | 1 |
| Hendricks | 143.3 | 7 | 29 | 53.3% | 4.7 | 0 | 3 |
| Steckel | 126.5 | 2 | 19 | 44.3% | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley | 113.9 | 7 | 26 | 50.1% | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Gordon | 100.7 | 6 | 23 | 35.9% | 1.7 | 0 | 1 |
What’s left to say about Alex Semin, who is doing everything he can to prove me wrong. Am I a believer yet? No, but any skater that converts almost a quarter of his chances to goals during both even strength and on the power play is someone that I can learn to love.
Tomas Fleischmann on the other hand is making me look like a genius. Ok, maybe genius is pushing it, but his 15% conversion rate when he is on the PP is the worst on the Caps for any skater with more than 30 min of total PP TOI.
Eric Fehr also continues to show he is more a 15- to 20-goal scorer than a legitimate Top 6 forward, generating only 3.4 chances per 15 minutes when he is on the ice time at even strength. If Boyd Gordon can get healthy I think we see Fehr in the press box more often.
Speaking of Boyd Gordon, despite only starting 36% of the time in the offensive zone the Caps still manage to convert one out of every four chances when he is on the ice during 5v5 play. Please get healthy or this “Vote for Boyd” campaign I have ready to go is going to look stupid.
Defenders
| Player | TOI (EV) | GA (EV) | SCA (EV) | OffZS% | TOI (PK) | GA (PK) | SCA (PK) |
| Jeff Schultz | 304.4 | 9 | 74 | 58.5% | 59.0 | 6 | 21 |
| Mike Green | 250.7 | 7 | 65 | 56.3% | 42.5 | 3 | 18 |
| John Carlson | 300.3 | 12 | 70 | 50.1% | 39.8 | 4 | 19 |
| Karl Alzner | 275.6 | 8 | 50 | 55.4% | 28.5 | 3 | 10 |
| John Erskine | 234.9 | 12 | 65 | 42.3% | 39.2 | 3 | 19 |
| Tyler Sloan | 144.0 | 7 | 32 | 52.7% | 9.0 | 2 | 6 |
| Tom Poti | 77.3 | 5 | 22 | 60.7% | 12.4 | 2 | 6 |
Mike Green is making his case for the Norris early this year. The offensive part of his game is now bolstered by some tremendous defense, only allowing 11% of scoring chances convert into goals when he is on the ice during even strength and only 17% when a man down. Someone tell him we are on the bandwagon so he unblocks us on Twitter.
I could have put John Erskine up top with the forwards and focused on his scoring but his defense has been solid as well, especially on the PK where he has only allowed only 3 goals against on 19 chances.
Goalies
| Player | GA (EV) | SCA (EV) | 5v5 Sv% | GA (PK) | SCA (PK) | PK Sv% |
| Braden Holtby | 4 | 19 | 0.789 | 1 | 9 | 0.889 |
| Michal Neuvirth | 26 | 157 | 0.834 | 8 | 35 | 0.771 |
Michal Neuvirth continues to make a case to win the other Calder trophy, but when you look at his scoring chance save percentage, which Buffalo Sabres goalie coach Jim Corsi has said is the true measure of a goalie, we see below average performance. Looking at how the playoff goalies did last year, it seems a scoring-chance save percentage below .850 isn’t good, and with the Caps looking to bring home the Cup, Neuvirth, sitting at .826, shows there is still some more work to be done.
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