Ryan Leonard is entering the final season of the entry-level contract he signed with the Washington Capitals in 2025 and will enter a brand-new world as a restricted free agent next summer if he doesn’t get re-signed before then.
Leonard’s negotiating power dramatically improved when Leo Carlsson signed a five-year, $90 million offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers last week, making the 21-year-old Anaheim Ducks center the highest-paid player in the NHL ($18 million AAV).
The Ducks, who reportedly offered Carlsson $12.5 million annually and were countered with $15 million by Carlsson’s camp, did not anticipate how big a threat an offer sheet would be, as there have only been nine signed in the NHL over the last 16 years.
Offer sheets risk creating bad blood with opposing teams and can raise the value of star players across the league, leaving most GMs gun-shy despite receiving valuable draft-pick compensation in return.
With the NHL’s salary cap expected to reach $123 million by the 2028-29 season — a $19 million increase from this summer — there is an opportunity for teams to make big swings on young players they believe could be difference-makers over the next few summers.
Leonard, whose trajectory appears to be a high-scoring, scrappy power forward like Matthew Tkachuk, could be the type of young talent another NHL team targets. And Leonard has the representation aggressive enough to make it happen.
“You look at Ryan Leonard,” Elliotte Friedman said on the 32 Thoughts Podcast on Monday. “Ryan Leonard’s agent is the Keators, who just did the big deal with Leo Carlsson. Now, this doesn’t mean that everybody here should be running and screaming and worried about what Leonard’s future (is). But if you’re the Capitals, you’re looking at this and saying, ‘Hey, we realized the landscape has changed here, and we better be prepared for this.’ And Leonard is obviously a huge part of the Capitals’ future. ”
Leonard’s reps are indeed Matt & Ryan Keator of the Win Hockey Agency. Before Carlsson’s offer sheet was signed, AFP Analytics had a seven-year agreement with Leonard projected to be worth $57.8 million ($8.26 million AAV), which now seems low.
While the two parties may not want to rush into extension talks, there is reason for urgency to agree to a deal before September 16, 2026, when the NHL’s new CBA kicks in: eight-year contracts will be outlawed in favor of a seven-year maximum.
“In addition to Leonard, (Justin) Sourdif is a restricted free agent after next year,” Friedman added. “He will be arbitration eligible, which Leonard won’t be. So, you know, other teams, you’re looking at the changing landscape, and you’re saying, ‘We better be prepared to deal with this ourselves.’”
The salary cap is expected to rise by another $9.5 million next summer to $113.5 million, giving the Capitals more wiggle room to negotiate a big extension for Leonard. The Capitals’ only unrestricted free agents at the NHL level will be Alex Ovechkin ($4.25 million AAV) and Anthony Beauvillier ($2.75 million AAV), which should free up even more cash to lock Leonard in long-term.
