Time to really talk about where this season is going: numbers for the morning after

The Washington Capitals are now 1-3-1 on their vital road trip after an embarrasing 5-1 loss at the hands of the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday night. They have won just once in their last seven games.

This will probably be an inflection point of some sort for the season. Well, I sure hope so.

• There is nothing good that I can say about the team’s five-on-five effort. They had 11 shots on goal and were down 3-0 after two periods. At five-on-five, the Kraken finished up 53-36 in shot attempts, 27-15 in shots, 25-18 in scoring chances, and 13-11 in high-danger chances. If you want a good example of how this season has imploded, look at the two teams’ October 21 matchup in DC. The Capitals left that 4-1 win up 63-42 in shot attempts, 28-17 in shots, 28-12 in scoring chances, and 13-2 in high-danger chances. My, how things have gone downhill.
• Let’s get the one positive out of the way. Alex Ovechkin scored his 22nd goal of the season and the 919th of his career. Okay, back to the other stuff.
• The Capitals are tied for 15th in points percentage in the Eastern Conference (.528), putting them squarely in the running for a lottery first-round draft pick. They are two spots behind the Toronto Maple Leafs (.538), whose fans spent all of Tuesday night declaring their franchise dead and over after a loss. I repeat, the Capitals are behind that team. If you need further evidence, the image below only took me two simulations to achieve.

• Not only have the Capitals suffered some brutal losses this month, but they have also come against some of the worst teams in the NHL. Here is a list of current non-playoff teams they have dropped decisions to in January: Ottawa Senators (.529), Chicago Blackhawks (.481), Nashville Predators (.510), Florida Panthers (.567), Vancouver Canucks (.368), Seattle Kraken (.548). Yikes.
• Two immediate, easy things that I would address. Hendrix Lapierre played just 7:52 of ice time in this loss. Dylan McIlrath pretty clearly showed why Spencer Carbery never plays him much more than six minutes when he normally dresses. Time to end the madness. Neither should have roster spots when the Capitals get back to DC. Try literally anything else. It doesn’t even need to be Ilya Protas if the organization is so against that. Anything else.
• There are now just five games left before the NHL breaks for the 2026 Winter Olympics. While you can pretty obviously tell what direction I’m heading in about the season, four of those games come against direct East playoff competition in the form of the Detroit Red Wings, Carolina Hurricanes, Philadelphia Flyers, and New York Islanders. I would say they need to win all four of those games for me to change my current tune.