The Washington Capitals have chosen an unfortunate time of year to play their worst hockey. Fresh off a five-game losing streak that spanned the all-star break, the Capitals are about to have the toughest stretch of their entire season.
Every one is these games is going to be a battle.
Thursday @ Florida Panthers
Record: 31-15-4
Points Pace: 108
5v5 xGoals percentage: 55.8%
After a slow start to the season (under .500 in October), the Panthers have arrived. Though the Caps will be playing in their barn, they’re the best road team in the league. They’re top ten in both the power play and the penalty kill, and they’re top five at controlling play during five-on-five. Sam Reinhart is on the lowest-key 60-goal pace I can remember. This will be the toughest possession team the Caps will see this week.
Saturday @ Boston Bruins
Record: 31-10-9
Points Pace: 116
5v5 xGoals percentage: 51.0%
The Caps have yet to play the post-Bergeron Bruins this season, who are way better than I thought they’d be after a summer of upheaval. A big share of their success so far has been to the credit of their goalies, Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, who have saved 23.4 goals above expected, better than everyone but the Winnipeg Jets and the Caps’ opponent 21 hours later.
Sunday vs Vancouver Canucks
Record: 34-11-5
Points Pace: 120
5v5 xGoals percentage: 51.9%
The ‘Nucks had 83 points last season. The Athletic predicted they’d win 92 this season. HockeyViz had it at 89. But they’re on pace ton win 120 and grab the President’s Trophy for the first time in more than a decade. No team has outperformed expectations more than Vancouver, and that’s thanks to two main factors: defender Quintin “Quinn” Hughes, who deserves his spot in both the Norris and Hart conversations and who is on track to crack 100 points, and goalie Thatcher Demko, who is playing the best hockey of his career. The Caps will play this matinee game unrested, having traveled down the east coast after the prior day’s matinee.
Tuesday vs Colorado Avalanche
Record: 32-15-4
Points Pace: 109
5v5 xGoals percentage: 52.3%
The Caps will wrap up the week by hosting another likely Norris candidate, Cale Makar. Makar does from the blue line what Kuznetsov used to do: help the finishing skills his teammates. The Avs trail only the Stars and Canucks in the West, which I guess you can chalk up to their mediocre goaltending, who struggle against high-danger chances, a stat in which the Capitals rank 26th.
The average pace of these teams is 113. Two of these games are matinees. The Caps will have one day’s rest for three of them; the Canucks they’ll play unrested and after travel.
When the Caps finally make it through the week, they’ll play an easy team again: the Montreal Canadiens, who handed them that 5-2 beating on Tuesday night.
Buckle up.
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