Is Braden Holtby’s Workload a Problem?

Photo: Amanda Bowen

Braden Holtby has appeared in 49 of the Caps’ 58 games, which has him tied with Cory Schneider for the league lead among NHL goalies.  This puts him on pace to play in 69 games this season, a total that would be the fifth most all-time by a Caps’ goalie.  

As the games get more meaningful down the stretch, Holtby’s workload isn’t going to decrease. Alex Prewitt of The Washington Post noted this before the Caps win over the Ducks on Sunday.

https://twitter.com/alex_prewitt/status/567100711528198144

https://twitter.com/alex_prewitt/status/567100790355947520

If Holtby sits just two times the rest of the way, he will finish the season with 71 appearances. Let’s split the difference between his pace and Alex’s higher estimate and say Holtby will end the season with 70 appearances. A heavy workload, for sure. Some Caps’ fans have expressed concern over Holtby’s regular season workload hindering his playoff performance.

Since 2005-06, a goalie has appeared in 70-plus games in a season 30 times. Of those 30 times, that goalie’s team respective team made the playoffs 18 times.

Did these 18 goalies see a dip in performance, as measured by 5v5 save percentage, come playoff time?

Goalies who have appeared in 70-plus regular season games since 2005-06 see an improvement in save percentage in the playoffs. Maybe save percentages in general go up a tick in the playoffs. But it’s clear that a goalie doesn’t fall apart in the playoffs just because he appeared in a lot of games in the regular season.

This isn’t to say that Holtby won’t wear down in the playoffs. And it’s also not to say that if his play drops, it’s because he’s worn down. Further, there’s obviously more factors involved than simply connecting a goalie’s regular season performance and workload to his playoff performance. But, recent history shows that Holtby isn’t certain to wear down in the playoffs simply due to his regular season workload.

Follow Pat Holden on Twitter.