The Caps are at it again. They are piling up points at a dizzying pace and are one of the best teams in the league. Skeptics may point to the team’s 10.3 percent shooting percentage or 65.5 goals-for percentage as unsustainable, and they wouldn’t be entirely wrong. But even if the Caps percentages regress to a seemingly more sustainable level, they are still one of the best teams in the league.
“But,” they say “will this last?” Or will the Caps have another juggernaut of a regular season end in playoff disappointment?
I’ll spare you the details of why I believe regular season success is more meaningful than playoff success and how randomness can sometimes cause the better team to lose a seven-game series. Instead, we’ll hear from a couple smart, insightful folks from around the league. I asked both of them the same question: in about two sentences, do you think this is the Caps’ year? Here’s what they said:
- Carolyn Wilke, Hockey Editor for FanRag Sports: The Capitals look as dominant as any Stanley Cup winner I’ve seen. Plus, they seem to have finally fixed the one problem that’s plagued them in playoffs past – lack of bottom 6 scoring.
- Sean Tierney, Hockey Graphs and The Athletic: The Capitals are doing what any dangerous Cup contender does — they’re producing excellent stats (shot attempt percentage, scoring chances, goals for percentage, and on and on…) and are enjoying a burst of PDO too. Even good teams need some luck to wind their way through the playoffs. This team is scary good — and they’ve got luck on their side too. Watch out.
(If you aren’t already following these great folks on Twitter, I highly recommend it. Click their names.)
Just like many seasons during the Ovechkin era, this could be the year. But maybe it won’t be.
Let’s dig into the numbers through 53 games for a Caps team that is again considered a legitimate threat to win it all.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eller | 52 | 580 | 58.5 | +7.4 | 65.6 | 102.5 |
| Connolly | 39 | 391 | 57.7 | +6.1 | 76.8 | 106.6 |
| Burakovsky | 50 | 572 | 56.1 | +4.6 | 65.5 | 103.9 |
| Williams | 52 | 639 | 55.2 | +3.2 | 62.1 | 102.4 |
| Johansson | 53 | 710 | 53.6 | +1.1 | 64.8 | 104.6 |
| Kuznetsov | 53 | 706 | 52.3 | -0.8 | 66.6 | 105.9 |
| Oshie | 44 | 560 | 51.8 | -1.2 | 71.4 | 107.2 |
| Backstrom | 53 | 705 | 50.8 | -2.9 | 64.8 | 104.9 |
| Wilson | 53 | 518 | 50.2 | -3.1 | 65.2 | 105.8 |
| Winnik | 43 | 409 | 50.1 | -2.9 | 71.4 | 105.8 |
| Ovechkin | 53 | 720 | 50.0 | -4.2 | 62.8 | 104.7 |
| Beagle | 52 | 510 | 46.6 | -7.8 | 67.1 | 106.6 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niskanen | 52 | 855 | 55.7 | +4.5 | 64.7 | 103.2 |
| Schmidt | 46 | 642 | 55.3 | +3.4 | 67.3 | 104.7 |
| Orlov | 53 | 904 | 54.8 | +3.4 | 66.0 | 104.3 |
| Orpik | 53 | 771 | 53.9 | +1.7 | 71.2 | 106.1 |
| Carlson | 47 | 731 | 50.2 | -4.8 | 61.5 | 104.2 |
| Alzner | 53 | 838 | 48.1 | -7.0 | 67.2 | 106.2 |
Observations
- Through 53 games, the Caps are third in the league with a 52.7 shot-attempt percentage.
- An update on the best third line in hockey: 115 forward trios around the league have skated 100-plus minutes together at 5-on-5 this season. In 169 nice minutes together, the Caps third line of Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky ranks fourth with a shot attempt percentage of 61.3 percent. The team is shooting 14.1 percent when this trio is on the ice and Caps goalies are stopping 96.5 percent of shots on goal. So, the trio’s 86.6 goals-for percentage won’t last, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t still a really good line when the good fortune wanes. Their 60.8 expected goals-for percentage show that this trio is for real, but maybe not to the extent we’ve seen so far.
- A non-numbers translation of the above bullet point: the third line is great and is also seemingly getting every break, bounce, and deflection to go their way. They’ll still be a great line when the hockey gods stop smiling upon them. This also sums up the state of the Caps right now in that they’ll still be a top team when the luck inevitably recedes a bit.
- Evgeny Kuznetsov struggled to put up points early in the season. This makes it even more remarkable that his 2.41 points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time ranks 16th among the 359 forwards with 300-plus minutes this season.
- Dmitry Orlov is skating over 17 minutes per game at 5-on-5, tops among all Caps defenders. Let me repeat: Dmitry Orlov is leading defenders in 5-on-5 ice time on arguably the best 5-on-5 team in the NHL.
- In celebration of this, let’s play a game called “At the end of the day” starring Orlov. At the end of the day, regardless of whatever flaws or sometimes maddening mistakes that Orlov is criticized for, the following are true:
- Over the last two seasons, Orlov ranks seventh in points per 60 minutes among the 174 defenders with at least 1,000 minutes of ice time. This is ahead of players such as Kris Letang and PK Subban (not ahead of John Carlson though, who ranks fourth).
- Among the same group of defenders, Orlov ranks third in goals-for per 60 minutes of ice time. You’ll never guess who’s first.
- Speaking of Brooks Orpik, I’ll always hate that contract but he’s been way more effective than I anticipated. Some of this credit belongs to the coaching staff and the way he’s been deployed this season, but Orpik definitely deserves credit too. Since Orpik came to town, eight different defenders have skated 500-plus minutes at 5-on-5 for the Caps. His 51.0 shot attempt percentage ranks fifth and while his goals-for percentage may rank seventh, it’s still a healthy 56.8 percent. Is he worth $5.5 million per year? No. But he’s been a useful, serviceable option on the blue line.
- It’s a weird world indeed when Nick Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin are in the bottom half of the team’s forwards in shot attempt percentage and are both negative relative possession players.
- Every Caps forward except Lars Eller and Tom Wilson are shooting above 10 percent at 5-on-5 and five players are over 15 (!!!) percent. When you’re hot, you’re hot.
- TJ Oshie leads the way at 24.6 percent. He’s 30 years old and going to command a 5-plus year deal on the open market this summer. He’s a difference maker no matter where he lands, but there’s reasons for buyers to beware.
- Let’s close this out with a viz from Sean Tierney that takes a look at 5 metrics to provide a good summary of where the Caps stand:
The Washington Capitals in graphs
The key markers are strong. PDO is running hot. GF% remains off the chart. This is a good and lucky team. pic.twitter.com/kZFFRN1Ny7
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) February 6, 2017
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
- GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.
All stats from Corsica unless otherwise noted or linked
Headline photo: Patrick McDermott
