There’s a certain undercurrent to how we talk about hockey that has had me on edge this season, and especially lately. While the Capitals have been very successful when measured in goals and wins and standings points, the team has pretty obvious flaws. When we talk about these flaws, we often name specific players, and that makes the discussions seem personal – as if to express disappointment in a player’s performance is the same as expressing disappointment in that player directly. But it’s rarely personal, and players often function in these discussions as proximities for a set of circumstances that the individual is in but not necessarily in control of.
I have to admit that I feel a sense of failure in myself as a communicator when my writing is read as a reflection of dislike for certain players. One of the allures of hockey for me is its complexity – the wild chaos on the surface belied by elegant patterns underneath, which in turn are themselves complicated by unseen layers still. I like looking deeper and learning more as much as I like the sound of skates on ice.
I both suspect and regret that this week’s snapshot will read as a condemnation of some individuals and a stout defense of a few others. I don’t have any problem with the latter, but the other part would sadden me.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burakovsky | 28 | 336 | 52.8 | +4.8 | 35.7 | 96.3 |
| Backstrom | 53 | 749 | 52.1 | +5.3 | 62.1 | 103.8 |
| Wilson | 50 | 665 | 51.8 | +4.5 | 55.5 | 103.0 |
| Vrana | 51 | 622 | 51.0 | +3.5 | 51.8 | 99.9 |
| Oshie | 48 | 647 | 50.5 | +3.1 | 58.0 | 102.3 |
| Ovechkin | 54 | 784 | 50.4 | +3.0 | 61.3 | 104.6 |
| Eller | 53 | 611 | 50.0 | +2.1 | 48.3 | 100.8 |
| Kuznetsov | 54 | 766 | 46.7 | -2.5 | 53.6 | 102.4 |
| Connolly | 45 | 450 | 46.3 | -3.0 | 45.0 | 102.5 |
| Stephenson | 41 | 444 | 45.9 | -3.2 | 61.0 | 104.4 |
| Smith-Pelly | 50 | 575 | 44.8 | -4.7 | 50.9 | 101.5 |
| Chiasson | 48 | 450 | 44.1 | -5.2 | 45.4 | 101.3 |
| Beagle | 54 | 524 | 41.2 | -8.9 | 51.0 | 103.3 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | Rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djoos | 45 | 590 | 51.5 | +4.1 | 58.2 | 103.4 |
| Orlov | 54 | 1024 | 50.7 | +3.7 | 55.0 | 101.5 |
| Niskanen | 40 | 742 | 50.0 | +1.6 | 60.5 | 104.8 |
| Carlson | 54 | 962 | 49.3 | +1.5 | 50.9 | 101.2 |
| Bowey | 46 | 606 | 45.4 | -3.4 | 44.7 | 100.4 |
| Orpik | 54 | 909 | 44.8 | -5.5 | 42.2 | 100.3 |
| Chorney | 23 | 256 | 44.0 | -6.5 | 64.8 | 105.7 |
Notes
- I’m generally encouraged to see the first and third lines north of 50 percent in shot attempts (SA%). I think that speaks to the weaknesses of this team being consigned mostly to depth – and also to the loss of Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams depressing Evgeny Kuznetsov’s shot share (46.7). To that end, I’ve assembled an updated visualization of how the Caps forwards and defensemen perform when on ice together.
- You may notice I added a new color-code. It’s black for shot-attempt percentages under 40 percent but also for the cover of rot and mold and t-shirts worn by nu-metal bands. This is what I meant in the introduction. There are some glaring problems in the Caps lineup, though as we’ll see below they’re not explicitly hurting the team at the moment. Still, if the team fails to address these problems (but not necessarily problem players), they’ll have no one to blame but themselves should they manifest come springtime.
- For the first couple months of the season, I was really worried about Andre Burakovsky. His individual shot volume had dropped off in a way that made him a lot less special, and I shared the concerns of Capitals management about him. Not anymore. Burakovsky’s individual numbers have rebounded and he earns more takeaways than he commits giveaways. What remains are pretty mundane struggles for hockey players: low shooting (a team low 5.8 percent) and saving (a team low 90.5 percent) spoiling a solid underlying effort. Only about 30 forwards out of the 374 who’ve played 300-plus minutes have a lower PDO. The single biggest problem for Burakovsky is simple: not enough ice time. So when Barry Trotz says Andre “just hasn’t found his game right now,” I hope he understands that that’s not an Andre problem; that’s a Barry problem. I’m just sort of trying to get his attention a little bit.
- Jay Beagle‘s season is bonkers (41.2 percent of shot attempts). Even among similar bottom-line forwards on other teams, his competition (measured in the average shot-attempt percentage of his opponents) and his deployment (measured in the percentage of non-on-the-fly shifts that start in the offensive one) are absurdly hard. Add to that a rotating cast of replacement-level linemates and it’s not all that surprising that he’s getting caved in.
- To that point, below is a Vollman player usage chart, plotting relative shot attempts (red means the team improves in shot-attempt differential when the player is on the bench), quality of competition, and offensive-zone starts.
- Here’s all Caps forwards, which further explains how odd Beagle’s usage is.
- Lars Eller‘s new contract comprises a raise of exactly zero dollars against the salary cap. As the salary cap grows, Eller’s share of the total will drop – but he’ll be compensated in term. Playing middle-six minutes, killing penalties, and activating modest players like Eller does is a paycheck well earned. I don’t actually have any numbers to talk about here. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- It’s hard to see from the games played and time-on-ice columns, but there’s a huge gap in how the defenseman are being used. Here’s their time-on-ice by game state.
| Defenseman | 5v5 | All |
|---|---|---|
| Orlov | 19.0 | 20.3 |
| Niskanen | 18.5 | 23.1 |
| Carlson | 17.8 | 22.4 |
| Orpik | 16.8 | 20.4 |
| Bowey | 13.2 | 13.6 |
| Djoos | 13.1 | 13.9 |
| Chorney | 11.1 | 13.0 |
- There’s the top four, and then there’s about five minutes of nothing, and then there’s Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos. Considering how dramatically different those two players have performed so far, it’s startling to see them given essentially equal ice time. Since around game 25, Bowey’s been playing more and more with Brooks Orpik (as John Carlson takes fewer shifts with the veteran), and it’s gone, well, see for yourself.
- Orpik’s numbers are a disaster in every way except for the way that decides who wins the game. He’s been a “minus” player exactly twice in the last twelve games – and both times he was minus-1. He’s not sinking the team in result, but he’s been a disaster in process.
- On the defensive side of the ice and among the top 200 defensemen in the league, Orpik sees the 9th highest opponent shot attempts and scoring chances, the 8th highest opponent high-danger chances, but the 76th highest opponent goals. Making that even more maddening, pending free agent John Carlson has virtually the exact same defensive numbers. (Except Carlson makes up for them with much more offense.)
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
- GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.
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